good morning audience welcome to the

sense of things it’s Jeff and Ron here

again for another episode of the sense

of things podcast and on today’s show

Ron’s going to take the Reigns a little

bit and talk to us a little bit about

he’s got some trivia for us he’ll be

talking about the Atlanta feds recent

update which is actually interesting

because although we laughed at them last

year they were actually pretty accurate

and their estimat so we’ll see if

they’re accurate this time as well in

addition to that Ron’s going to talk a

little bit about an update for the

sectors for this year so stay tuned

we’ll be right back in just one

second welcome folks welcome to the

sense of things and Ron how are you my

friend good morning Jeff all good never

a dull moment as usual between the state

of the I economic news geopolitical

fears all that good fun stuff the

markets are getting thrown around like a

ragd doll yep yeah we it’s funny my the

model that I use leaned into adjusting

to be more more conservative this month

and uh my clients are all like oh you’re

a genius and I’m like yeah yeah

sometimes you’re right sometimes you’re

wrong I got to tell you there’s a saying

that I hear every now and then and every

time I hear it I’m like God I got to use

it more often and I think it applies

today because I had a couple clients

that were freaking out after the State

of the Union yeah got to calm them down

say look the sun’s still going to rise

tomorrow all that good stuff but I

thought the saying of the following is

it’s not about timing the market it’s

about time in the market Y and if you

try and time these things based on

Headline News and redrick and all that

other stuff it’s a Fool’s errand so stay

in high quality stuff because on the way

down you add to it because it’s going to

be spring coiled on the way up past

non-quality stuff so it’s time in the

market versus time in the market yeah

yeah and it’s not like we’re going to

cash but in my case we just pulled back

a little bit of the higher beta stuff

the Nvidia type stocks and palun teers

and things like that pair those back a

little bit and we’ve just got a little

bit more higher quality dividend payers

in the portfolio and certainly pulled

back a little bit of the the exposure to

the stock market because I just think

we’re going to have it’s just going to

be a little crazy right now with all

these negotiations going on between

countries and tariffs and trying to get

things cooled down in the Middle East

and things cool down in Ukraine and

everything else and it’s just we’re it’s

just going to take some time to get

through some of this so it’s sometimes

just play it a little safe is not always

a bad thing I agree but you know what if

you read the head headlines you lose

sleep yeah just what it comes down to I

just ignore the news period at that

point and just look to freak out lose

sleep is insane to be worried to be

concerned that’s okay but you can’t let

it affect your life no and once again

it’s going to change and what we’ve seen

is so much of the market now is run by

what would you would think would be

rational but so much of the market is

run by Bots and things like that and

they’re responding to every news

headline and causing all this gyration

and all that so either if you’re

invested for the long term this is just

going to be a short-term blip and a

long-term thing if you’re invested for

shorter term or if you’re in retirement

this is the time to maybe be a little

bit have a little bit less exposed to

the stock market is the way I would look

at it I agree all right let’s turn let’s

turn it over to some trivia I love it

all right a snail can sleep for how many

years let’s go 10

years all right a little less three

three

years I gotta tell you I better wake up

refreshed if that’s the case no kidding

I don’t know how refreshed you can be as

a snail because you you wake up and then

some Frenchman picks you up and Cooks

you that just sucks I think atrophy

would have set in by then too you’d

think

all right number two how many heart

chambers does a cockroach have I don’t

really want to know but I’m going to say

four 12 12 holy crap maybe that’s why

they can survive a nuclear blast yeah

yeah you could kill half

heart yeah they may lose 10 Chambers in

a nuclear bass but they still got two

that are going still going yeah they’re

still chugging along all right and which

animal never sleeps I actually heard

this many years ago and I

forgot I’m GNA say

whale bullfrog bullfrogs never sleep

maybe that’s why they’re so puffy yes

that’s why they’re so puffy that’s why

they’ve got the eye bags on them all the

time everything else and they’re just

trying to stay away from the cinjun and

and the frog leg thing yeah all right so

that that’s the three trivia for the day

I have a whole slew of them in the

upcoming week I I love trivia so it

would be good

all right so I think this is funny

because last year we were laughing and

scoffing because the Atlanta fed always

was out of range with consensus with the

other feds when it came to GDP when it

came to other economic numbers and they

came out last week and basically

said nope we’re looking at negative GDP

growth for q1 and

could they be right again now obviously

a lot of people go by oh if you have two

straight quarters of negative GDP growth

we’re in recession now that’s not the

actual indicator as as we know the

indicator is by the NBR the National

Bureau of economic research they dictate

when we’re in a recession it’s just that

two straight quarters of negative Co of

growth typically are a catalyst or a

kicker for what may be to come what are

your thoughts on this because we were

laughing at them last year and they

ended up being almost dead on that was

the and they were so different from

everybody else it was they were so far

off and they ended up being I think

within a half a point or something like

that they were the closest yeah it was

scary and people laughed at them and oh

they don’t know what they’re talking

about I honestly knowing what was

happening going into

Q4 and you’re still seeing inflation

inflation’s coming back the prices have

not come back plus you know you’ve seen

some of the agricultural products still

continue to go up I don’t honestly I can

follow along with them on this I don’t

know if it’s going to be as bad as what

they say but I think it could be pretty

dang close I could see it being in the

negative but here’s the crazy thing Jeff

look down below here this is reading it

every four days yeah and they’re

adjusting it and they were positive

since January and then all of a sudden I

don’t know what happened here last week

that they said nope sorry we’re going to

go from let’s say 2.1 down to negative

2.8 yeah 2.7 I didn’t see what the

Catalyst was it had to be tariffs I was

gonna say the only thing I can think is

yeah they’re trying to they’re trying to

trying to project forward what consumer

behavior is going to be that’s the only

thing that’s the only reason I could

think that’s where they would go that

way is just trying to project what’s

going to happen with tariffs which I

could buy into because there’s just a

lot of uncertainty right now and people

don’t really understand how this is

gonna how these tariffs are going to

affect this stuff right out of the gate

and I think there’s still a lot of

negotiation going on I know Trump

speaking to the Mexican president today

she’s got a big announcement on the

weekend I think this is such a fluid

situation right now that things could

change on a heartbeat and I think that’s

why you’re seeing all this incredible

volatility in the market yeah I agree

all right so the next thing I thought

talking about not timing the market but

time in the market and you got to love

this so this information’s over 30 years

old 35 years old and this is if you only

owned the market or your after the

decline days versus after all the up

days versus just hold the hold your damn

positions the high quality positions and

I think this is interesting because

we’re seeing it today that after you get

a big up day typically there’s a down

day right it’s like a dead capap bounce

it’s a head fake whatever you want to

call it and then after a lot of people

love to buy on down days right they’re

adding to Quality positions at a

discount whether it’s small medium or

large and you get bigger up but if you

just hold the quality positions you’re

up over time and I thought it was

interesting now if you just look if you

hold it up over down days I mean you

were basically flat for 35 years at

least if you bought or went back in

after down days you perform pretty good

yeah I know you’re a Buy and Hold guy

with most of your stuff what are you

telling clients you know what the model

that I use it was a model that I

developed over literally the past seven

years I personally have tested it in my

own portfolio for almost five before I

before I used it with clients and the

biggest difference with the model is it

just takes stuff off the table we never

go we’re never going to go to cash and

then back in or try and buy in on

specific days it’s a monthly trading

model that I follow and it follows

momentum of where the markets are going

at times like this it’s going to pull

some of the risk off the table we’re

still invested and we’ve still got a

significant investment in the stock

market it’s just that we’re going to

pull back and it will pull back on

things that are much higher beta when

the markets going like this and you

can’t fight the market if you look at a

mo if you look at the chart of the S&P

for the last six months you know it’s

rolled over it rolled over almost a

month ago and it’s been on pretty much a

downtrend with a few of these little

bounces up yeah I just don’t want to

have as much exposure to the market when

it’s doing because you can’t you just

can’t win it doesn’t matter if you’ve

got good or bad it’s just not going to

do well but you still need to be there

because you don’t know when it’s going

to turn I agree and then my last slide

here is just now this is a few days old

obviously like I said the market keeps

getting thrown around here but one of

the one of the areas that I thought

would be a good theme this year and last

year was healthare yeah and so far it’s

been one of I don’t think I don’t know

know it’s going back and forth the last

few days year to date it’s actually been

one of the best performance now rather

ironically financially got crushed two

days ago came back a little bit

yesterday I’m not a financial sector guy

and of course the consumer staples it

should be interesting also to see how

the tariffs play out and how it’s going

to affect the consumer spending but we

shall see and then I heard the last

couple of days that a lot of the big

real estate developers specifically on

the Industrial and Commercial side are

holding off on big projects because they

don’t know what the cost of the

materials is going to be so they’re

trying to figure that out or they’re

trying to hoard stuff that is tough for

them to get in anticipation of what they

may need to build so obviously that’s

another reason why our markets are the

way they are and probably will continue

to be in the first half of this year

because until things settle down till

the dust settles till people really have

a better grasp and handle of forget

about a year from now but even the next

3 to 6 months it’s going to be tough for

people to figure out what to do

yeah and I think that plays right into

that the GDP argument we had at the

beginning I think the Atlanta fed it

could actually work pretty close to that

it just could be on the money that that

everybody kind of pulling back because

of the uncertainty that just may pull

back the market period and on the next

show I’m going to do some research or I

done some research on kind of what’s

going on in the economy and the

economics and I think some of that’s

playing out you’re already starting to

see a little bit of that yeah yep so

until next week more trivia more news

like I said never a dull moment there’s

always going to be something but I think

it’s going to be a little rocky here in

the first half I was talking about this

in December and January and I thought it

was great I heard this one market

strategist say buy the election sell the

inauguration yeah and I can’t remember

who it was but he was absolutely correct

right on the money we’ll see how things

shake out here but this is a great time

to look for a lot of these high quality

High beta names because when these

things settle down those things are

going to be spring coil rocket sh well

and I think one of the things that I’ve

paid out really close attention to is

looking at who’s performing well with

the market down draft like we’ve seen

who’s performing well you know and it

doesn’t mean that they’re going they’re

going up when the Market’s going down

but I’ve been looking at the ones that

have really stayed up and have not

followed the market down a little bit

because and a lot of them are names that

you’re seeing more Market breath a lot

of them are names that you may or may

not have even heard of before but I

think there’s an opportunity and I think

there’s I think we’ll see much broader

Market breath than the market being run

by seven stocks over like we’ve seen

over the last few years so I think

there’s a lot of great companies out

there that are on sale but they needed

to come down so they’re coming down to a

more reasonable level are they Dirt

Cheap no but they’re much more

reasonable you want to start nibbling or

adding to position so we see how things

shake out but I think this is definitely

a time to start putting some good money

into good quality stuff I am right there

with you and it’s these are always the

times that I like having a little bit

extra cash on the sidelines to be able

to put into to some of the stuff we

prepared for it we’ve got a little bit

bigger kind of safe positions where we

can put stuff back in but got to get

through some of the craziness

first all right man good folks make sure

that you stay subscribed to the channel

because we’re popping these things out

as fast as we can pop them out and we

will see you guys back here the very

next time