hey everyone welcome to the sense of

things for another week of craziness ups

and downs tariffs and everything else

This week Ron’s going to really share

with us a little bit of some research

he’s been doing Some of it’s a little

leftover from the show last week our

hundth episode If you haven’t watched it

go back and watch it But on today Ron is

going to share with us a little bit of

something he found out about some

changes in TSA rules of things you can

bring on airplanes In addition to that

he’s going to talk about investor

sentiment which is at the absolute

lowest it’s been So hang on We’ll be

right back with you in just a second

Hello everyone Welcome to the show Ron

how are you doing bud good morning

Spring is in the air Yes actually it was

nice this morning Surprisingly it is a

little crisp in the air out here and not

very much much rain So we don’t have

much in the way of humidity for a change

Mother Nature’s is teasing us out here

where it was hot in early March Then it

was like almost like almost winter

conditions in the mornings for a little

bit Then it teased us with some summer

last week Now we’re back to spring

oriented weather Normal spring Yeah All

good It’s all good Yeah Whatever it is a

little cool in the morning That works

good when you’re getting And of course

with our current administration there’s

never any daily fodder for us to talk

about I know I wish they would do

something It just seems like they’re

just sitting on their hands but we’ll go

with it from there He’s got his own

reality TV channel which is the media So

that we got it all there But no

definitely have some good stuff

Absolutely All right Why don’t you kick

us off with a little bit of trivia today

and we’ll go from there All right You

should be able to get the first one What

is the name of the boat in Jaws oh that

one’s an easy one The orca of course

Here we go All right Now what country

covers five time zones but only operates

in one for me I when I did this I

thought of only two countries I got it

wrong I’m thinking Russia Okay I was

thinking Australia but it is China So if

you’re on the if you’re on the eastern

or the western edge either it’s daylight

for you a lot or it’s very dark

depending on how you decide That is

amazing You’re keeping up with the time

zone I Where’s Beijing is that in the

center or east way on the eastern side

Okay Yeah All right So that it’s not

quite to the ocean but it’s way on the

eastern side of it So that means if

you’re on the western half of that

country basically if you need any

government services or whatever doing it

at 1 or two in the morning Yeah pretty

much All right That’s amazing Five

freaking time zones Wow If you ordered

an omelette Arnold Bennett what fish

would you find in it wow I had no I’m a

big breakfast guy I didn’t heard of an

omelet Arnold Bennett

I’m going catfish I don’t even know

where to go with this Hatock Hatock And

isn’t hatock pretty disgusting it’s oily

from what I remember about it I’m not a

fish guy Oh really i love fish All right

So I thought the next thing was

interesting I ran across an article two

days ago and whenever you get a good

little snidbit I think it would be

interesting Now obviously going back

after 9/11 they put a clamp on a lot of

stuff on what you can and can’t bring in

and what some of the things seem pretty

obvious but a couple of these things I

was like number one I didn’t know they

were banned and number two I didn’t know

people were bringing this stuff on a

plane Yeah So number one some

over-the-counter medications I didn’t

know that they were banned because don’t

people bring on like a Tylenol or an

Advil if they got a headache yeah I

would have thought so And you put it in

that little baggie thing the clear

baggie and then just through TSA I

didn’t know you Yeah I mean maybe it’s

if it’s in the silver punch out stuff I

don’t know I know I brought stuff on

Pepto or I don’t know Just took anything

Yeah my wife takes 17 allergy

medications and she’d be stopped every

time and I’m the one that always gets

stopped That’s the funny part All right

number two prescription medications in

gel liquid or aerosol form Now I I don’t

know I don’t have any liquid

prescription meds I do have some some

gel stuff for my knees or whatever just

for icy hot and whatever but I I didn’t

know that you couldn’t bring this stuff

in but it’s once again prescription med

Yeah first off I thought it was it could

go in those little But it’s got to be

small things and it has to go in the

little aerosol form I can understand But

I get that But if you have something

prescription and liquid if it’s under

three and a half ounces why can’t you

bring that in shouldn’t matter Yeah Yep

Next one Ice packs or gel packs for

medically necessary items Okay I get it

Yeah Yep Next one Food and drink for

infant and todd Now I’m thinking to

myself all right food You You were never

able to bring on goldfish for the

toddlers This makes no sense at all that

this was banned before Now drink I don’t

know You mean you could always bring

water after it yeah

I could argue that point but the food

it’s like why should that really matter

so now you got to help me out with this

What the hell is a wet battery

that’s we I guess technically a wet

battery is I would think it’s like

almost like a car battery So why would

you be carrying that on a car battery a

wet battery yeah Yeah Yeah cuz they’re

inside of them there Some of them are

still wet where they have acid in them I

didn’t know I’ll have to look that up

maybe during the show Yeah I don’t know

what else would be a wet battery But now

I’m thinking to myself who the hell is

doing this anyway live fish transported

in water Yeah I’m sorry We had to have

committee meetings on this one I

thinking what the heck is but now

they’re going to allow it That’s the

funny part So people are going to be

walking on with gold The little kid’s

going to come on with a little bowl with

a goldfish Yeah Sammmyy’s going to make

the flight Do you have to pay extra for

your goldfish coming on that’s what I

want to know I don’t think he wants to

watch the movie I mean it I could see

the argument It could be an emotional

support fish Don’t even So don’t even go

there Don’t even go there All right next

one I’m sorry Biological specimens Now I

want to know before this was there an

itemization of the specimens i Yeah I’m

just like okay can we give you a little

bit yes Here’s a petri dish of So here’s

the funny part So my best man in my

wedding we were fraternity brothers and

all this I was in his wedding He was a

microbiologist and worked for a food

test lab when we were in college And I’m

every time I’d go over to his office or

his house and I’d go and open up the

refrigerator he’s like “Hey just stay

away from that stuff on the top That’s

new world typhus And I’m like what the

hell do you have this in your

refrigerator for

yeah And obviously you can’t transport

You weren’t able to tra But now you can

But now you can bring you can bring your

emotional

support new world typhus on the plane

with you now Yeah but you could be

releasing Ebola on the plane What the

hell’s going on with this all right Next

Wow Yeah Next Breast milk or baby

formula okay Able to do this before Yeah

I’m sorry ma’am You’re gonna have to

leave your breast outside the plane Just

like okay you can’t Yeah it can’t be It

can be from the original source Just

cannot be Sorry During this 5 hour

flight you cannot feed your toddler Not

at all They’re on their way They’re on

their own Yeah Another one I don’t get

And I’ve seen women with baby formula

and stuff like that How could you not

done this so basically they just had all

these idiotic rules that they never

followed is what I’m seeing I guess So

but like I said were we just completely

ignorant or remember the whole time the

whole thing that somebody had a plastic

explosive that was built into the heel

of the shoe the shoe bomber or the

underwear bomber and all this crap But

so anyway a wet battery is a type of

lead acid battery that uses that uses a

liquid electrolyte typically a mixture

of sulfuric acid and water to generate

power So basically a car These TSA

people truly trained on how to identify

a wet battery versus a dry battery Hey I

couldn’t tell I don’t even know what the

hell this is Yeah our testing center

here that we run Excuse me Last thing

Who the hell’s bringing this on a plane

instead of That’s what I’m saying Yeah

Oh I’m going to bring my car battery

onto the plane with me just in case just

in case I need it But yeah I mean that

because I don’t think those are really

small size ones I built a wet cell

battery for a a science exhibit where I

used a lemon to create a battery but I

don’t get it No neither do I Next I had

to look this one up Liquid fil teethers

So this is a a gel or a liquid for

toddlers that are teething put on their

gums to cool them off Okay Now why would

that have been banned yeah Once again I

think it was all that time period Then

I’m sorry Let your baby cry for the

flight Let them scream next to me the

whole time You know what i will give

them I will sneak that onto the plane to

ensure that your toddler that is sitting

next to me that you didn’t pay for a

seat so now they’re screaming on your

lap I will definitely bring that on for

We We could have done a whole episode

going through each of these Next one

Duty-free items sealed in a tamper

evident uh bag Okay All right I don’t

know why you couldn’t do this before but

all right I’m still trying to figure out

what the tamper evident sealed in a

tamper evident bag means That makes I

don’t know Maybe they got a chain of

custody issue through dutyfree But most

of the duty-free shops I’ve ever been to

you just buy it and you carry it onto

the plane with you in a plastic bag So I

don’t get it Don’t forget Kramer from

Seinfeld We’re gonna stop at the

dutyfree shop Yeah

All right Next Fresh eggs Now I didn’t

know this was banned either You could

bring on a hard is But a hardboiled egg

you can’t Does that is that considered

fresh or just regular fresh what the

hell are you doing transporting fresh

eggs on a plane hey in today’s world

dude this this is like currency man What

are you talking about today it is but

for 25 years 24 years sorry not been

able to do Sorry I I know you just got

those fresh eggs this morning but thank

God there are finally rational people

running these organizations and they’re

looking at some of these idiotic rules

that were put in place I’m wondering

when you can actually get water you can

bring water on again because it’s

hilarious water on you just can’t bring

it through security You got to buy the

water on the other side That’s all Oh I

know Yeah Which makes no sense to me

because I’m like it’s still water I mean

it’s Yeah Oh you’re going to blow the

plane up with water Okay It’s not going

to be a really big explosion Let’s just

put it that way Yeah Or I’m telling you

the breast milk and baby formula just I

just Yeah I’m still trying to figure

that one out It’s okay How are Oh you’re

on a nine-hour flight to Europe You’re

not going to get to feed your baby

during that time and you won’t be able

to put a teether in its mouth because

it’s starving because we don’t want that

either No but I got to come back to live

fish transported in water What was the

incident they said “I’m sorry John Candy

Sorry folks parks closed cannot bring in

live fish transported in water All right

let’s move on to some business Listen to

the moose folks Listen to the moose The

moose should have told you at the front

All right so Bloomberg article investors

haven’t been this bearish in 30 years

Bank of America told me it is time to

buy baby Yeah So yeah that could be a

100% contrarian factor but

also I don’t think all the bad news is

baked in because we have no settlement

on anything No nothing Japan they say

they’re talking to Japan That was one of

the five entities I spoke about last

week I think this could get worse before

it gets better And I’m not trying to

just sound like Mr Raincloud but you got

to give me a break here You got to give

me a reason why we’re at a bottom We’ve

hit bottom Or you know what in the short

term next 3 to 6 months there’s a

catalyst to move upward I don’t see it

What about you oh no I agree And I was

talking to a client about that last

night I said we’re largely our

portfolios are largely in treasuries

right now which I looked like an idiot a

week or so ago but it’s now stable But

yeah there you get head faked out by

this market every time Every time it

starts to look like okay it’s doing a

little bit doing a little bit better

Then you have the idiot Fed chairman

yapping on there It’s okay coming to you

from the folks that brought you

transient inflation Now you’re going to

tell us oh this is going to be horrible

and all that Why should I believe you

you suck The only thing that look

everything he said was true specifically

about tariffs could call could cause

temporary inflation

Yeah What does temporary mean yeah Three

to six months three to six years We

Nobody The whole thing is there’s always

This is what I This is what kills me

There’s always uncertainty Yep We just

have elevated uncertainty because until

we at least have a compass heading on

some of these things It’s almost add to

quality positions Don’t get crazy but

don’t sell everything either That’s

precisely correct and have some powder

dry because there is going to be an

opportunity to buy I don’t think it’s

today I probably don’t think it’s

tomorrow Definitely won’t be tomorrow

because the markets aren’t open but I

would say in the next month until we

have it sounds like they’re going to

circle back with Japan by the end of the

month So that’s probably going to be one

of the first coming through the Italian

prime minister is in or Italian

president is in and she’s really

actually coming out as being like one of

the r most rational people I’ve seen in

Europe you know and I think the EU is

pushing hey let’s just do zero for zero

So until we get a few of those they

can’t do that Skins on the wall Why

wouldn’t they no No Because when you’re

looking for balance going zero for zero

doesn’t make sense Because what happens

if somebody ships more of a product and

somebody ships less less of a product

you’re hurting each other’s economies by

doing that If you’re doing a zero for

zero tariff somebody could still

overwhelm with specific products and

industries And the whole thing is this I

don’t care if the Italian president is

in The whole EU has to agree Absolutely

Once again it’s a whole it’s it’s a

whole on the whole across the board

There’s a lot of negotiations that have

to happen and this is an absolutely

headline driven market Whatever the

headlines say the computers are going to

go freaking crazy and go one direction

or another So I’m happy at this point

and I think most of my clients will

agree We’re happy that we’re just

sitting on the sidelines a little bit

collecting coupons for the time being

and collecting dividends Yeah that were

ramped up on dividend sides So we are in

earnings season and it’s been mixed

United Health absolutely got Oh it stunk

it up today And I’m I still don’t

understand that It was an interesting

thing I listened to a bit of the

conference call and they’re talking

about that they had more costs for

Medicare Advantage and I’m like I don’t

get where you had more costs what caused

they they never explained what caused

these more costs So that tells me you

have no freaking clue what’s going on

with your business at this point So yeah

I have to I’m going to have to get this

confirmed I’m going to give a personal

note here So I had a checkup a couple

weeks ago and they said they wanted me

to get a scan That’s fine I called in

I’m going through the whole process and

I said just out of curiosity what does

this cost after I gave them the thing i

have to get this confirmed when I show

up because they want me to It would cost

less if I paid out of pocket than if I

went through insurance I’m like how is

that

possible i I this whole insurance thing

has been It’s a scam It’s a ginormous

scam It’s funny A few years ago we

shifted to a different type of health

plan And I ask that question every time

now What’s it going to cost me if I go

through my insurance or what’s it going

to cost me if I just pay you cash and

sometimes it’s actually less than my

co-pay to do it that way So I’m like I

just asked now because I’m like I’d

rather not pay The problem is you can’t

get past the deductible unless you pay

in Yeah Yeah It’s just insane All right

So anyway getting back to earnings So I

thought this was interesting We haven’t

been this low if you think about it All

the elevated uncertainty around CO then

we hit the low in October November of

2022 and that was when we hit bottom but

that was when people got the most

fearful So you’re right This could be a

contrarian factor But I think the other

thing remember COVID we hit below March

of March 23rd of that year of 2020 and

we still didn’t know what was ahead of

us for quite some time And in November

22 people were saying “Oh we’re we’re

definitely going to have a recession

which didn’t happen because of how much

money was being pumped into the

economy.” So that kind of we skipped a

recession based on all those factors And

now we’re here and I don’t know if

necessarily this is the same situation

as November 22 and March of 2020 because

of the tariff situation What are your

thoughts i think it’s the uncertainty on

tariffs I think it’s also I would say

some uncertainty on the tax situation

What’s the whole tax thing going to look

like because if they do nothing it’s a

dead man switch and you know it blasts

up and they’re resolved I don’t know if

the tariff the longer they drag this out

which it sounds like they’re working

hard but the longer they drag that out

it makes it harder and harder for

business owners that are going to make

big investments this year in their

businesses and especially these

companies that they’re trying to okay

you can expense factories and everything

else Okay if you keep dragging this

out for another six months the typical

Wall or the typical Washington oh our

deadline is September 20th September

19th at 12 Yeah Or 11:59 will come up

with this It’s just it makes it very

difficult because they all got to they

all got to do their earmarks Oh I know

You got my vote if you do this for me

Yeah So couple more quick slides

Household spending going in the wrong

direction but it’s been going in the

wrong direction for a while and job

openings have been going down but

unemployment hasn’t been ticking up No

And that’s in fact that’s that was one

of the things we’ll cover that on the

next show But yeah unemployment actually

is down It was radically down from where

people thought it was going to be So

it’s interesting because you’ve got a

lot of layoffs in the federal government

but it’s just not a lot of ongoing jobs

It’s been steady No And then the last

thing I got is about household debt

spending where credit card spending has

been doing Can you explain the

difference between you got travel and

then you got transit but I don’t know

how gas spending is down Does this is

because gas prices have been coming down

but does that mean that people are

getting less gas you got to think more

people are working from home than ever

had been prior to that It looks like

it’d been on a down decline for quite a

while I would I’d venture to say now I

would venture to say and this is only

through 2022 at that point So this makes

sense if you’re looking at 2021 and 22

one gas prices were way the heck down at

that point especially in 2020 and 21 it

was like a dollar and some odd cents per

gallon you know base price And then of

course California adds $4 on for taxes

and everything else but base price now

it’s up around three So I’d be

interested to see what 23 and 24 look

like I’d like to find out what the hell

happened this week that all of a sudden

everybody wanted to go out and buy

furniture

Yeah Yeah 2017 I’m just trying to think

back what Yeah Oh so that Oh that’s

February Okay So this is February Okay

Yeah Sorry I meant to tell you Oh okay I

was thinking it was February of each

Yeah I don’t I don’t get that I guess

the only thing I can think of is the

beginning talks about tariffs and stuff

like that So everybody’s I’m going to go

buy furniture I don’t know No but the

one thing that we have seen is just more

people buying stuff online and I don’t

think this trend is going to stop No I

would expect that trend to keep

accelerating quite frankly But this is

showing that people are spending less at

bars and restaurants I will say I don’t

go out as often I almost look at it as a

treat now Yep I’m embarrassed to say I

was hankering for a steak I haven’t had

one in a long time Went out and I could

not believe the prices how much a steak

was No And what amazes me is all these

steakous and all that It’s through the

roof cost Yet I go to Longhorn

Steakhouse and I can walk out of there

two of us a meal for under 30 bucks What

are they doing different from all the

other Wait you’re getting a steak two of

you are getting a steak No we get

something else But still if I bought a

steak if each of us got a steak we’d be

out for under 45 bucks at Longhorn Yeah

Oh my goodness It’s awesome Their prices

are fantastic and the food is

outstanding For that price for that

price I got to quote Rodney Dangerfield

Did the meat still have the marks no

there was no jockey marks on the dang

food dude It was actually really good We

like I said I had a we went for lunch I

think last Friday when we got off of

work and I had a burger and Crystal I

think had a chicken sandwich and it was

$31 with a 20% tip because our waiter

was phenomenal Wow Yeah I’m amazed And I

had Texas That’s all I could say But I

went I was up in Idaho and it was the

same The prices are consistent So I went

to it in Idaho and it’s become my place

now where I’m like if I travel that’s

where I’m going to go because I know the

food’s going to be good and it’ll be

consistent and I don’t have to figure it

out

Maybe I got to check it out But hey

that’s what I got for this week I know

you got some stuff coming up Yep We’ll

we’ll do that on the next show So folks

make sure you keep an eye out for the

next show We’re going to do two this

week And I’ll be covering some stuff

around the economics of the world We’ll

talk about the bond market and we’ll

talk a little bit about some green

shoots around the world that we can talk

about So hang or we’ll see you guys back

in the next show