hey everybody welcome to the sense of

things good morning and we’re we’re off

and running today got a lot of great

information going on ron’s going to take

this part of the show and go over some

things that he’s been looking at

specifically on consumer sentiment and a

little bit more on our friends in the

the analyst community updating their

their predictions for the market and

stuff like that so stay tuned we’ll be

right back on in just a

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[Applause]

second hey everybody welcome to the show

ron how you doing bud good morning good

morning i think last time I said spring

is in the air i’m loving it i am loving

it i don’t know about you yeah it’s not

cooperating all that well but we we have

this and it get it happens this time of

the year we get these kind of upflows

from the Gulf of America I guess you

call it now that come up and it is humid

as all get out it’s it’s 70° in the

morning and it feels like you’re wearing

the air right now you can keep your

humidity i know i think I’m going to

come visit you this time of the year

next year so look actually I was just

talking to my friend in Jersey last

night he said the same thing because his

allergies have been kicking up the last

two weeks with everything blooming he

says “I think I got to get out of here

these these couple of weeks.” So just

I’m going to start I’m going to start at

Airbnb i think so i think you just maybe

build a few cassitas in your backyard

there bud and Oh good oh good i was

doing some research into container you

know building you can just plop a few

containers my property isn’t that big

okay sorry i could probably put a couple

of sheds they got you know they’ve got

the short containers like the 24-footer

so you know it’s enough to put a bed in

and a bathroom and that’s about it okay

all right what can I tell you i make a

mean breakfast too there you go there’s

the breakfast part you’ve got some fun

stuff to kick us off right yeah

absolutely we got to continue on with

our trivia it’s not what you think i was

wrong on this too what is the first food

eaten in space space huh so it wasn’t I

don’t think it was astronaut ice cream

that they try and shove on you at every

NASA place i will tell you in case

you’re going to get It wasn’t Tang it

was not Tang that’s a good thing because

it’s awful i’m going to

say I don’t know some kind of stew in a

bag

applesauce applesauce okay that’s

interesting that would make sense i

don’t think I’ve had applesauce since I

was like four so I don’t know there’s

only one applesauce to have that’s Mottz

all the other apples sauces stink

all right oh sorry screw i don’t know

why I did get that so there I didn’t

realize this there are 43 countries that

still have a royal family wow i would

have said maybe 15 but wow that’s

amazing yeah I know hopefully I didn’t

screw up the next one what is the

national animal of Scotland the hairy

cow

no I’ll give you another shot you’re not

going to get it

okay uh I have no clue i don’t even know

it’s not the leprechaun the mer but it’s

clo But it is close to the leprechaun

you’ll understand you ready all right

the unicorn

okay like I said it’s almost as good as

saying the leprechaun what can I say

okay it’s not even an animal but okay

we’ll go with That’s my point i don’t

know i think a lot of scotch in Scotland

so I’m just saying I could Listen I

didn’t really fact check or vet these

things i just got it from some reputable

site so what can I say wow i didn’t even

I couldn’t even begin that i’m like the

now all of a sudden the hairy cow is on

every decoration thing every time we go

to the like decoration store it’s like

the hairy cows are everywhere i’m like

okay that’s really only in one country

in the entire freaking world that ever

has those why where is the hairy cow

it’s in Scotland it’s there now oh it is

okay yeah it’s I forget what they’re

called but they’re like all furry and

stuff like that all right here we go so

I thought this was interesting look I

would have loved to have seen kind of

multi-year history here on a couple of

things the top seven are still producing

the most amount of earnings and the most

amount of earnings growth and the chart

on the right kind of goes through where

it is going back to 2023 and in 2023 if

you

remember coming out of 2022 with a 22 to

24% pullback in the market everybody was

thinking it was going to be a recession

70% of the S&P move in 2023 was from the

top 10 stocks you know the 490 were only

about 3% plus or minus so that’s what

shows it there then you take a look

moving forward and there was a little

bit of potential catchup here for this

year and next year but top seven are

still printing cash they’re still

producing yeah i mean that’s the thing

it’s everybody gives a you know they’ve

gotten just trounced on over the last I

think they got ahead of themselves but

the reality is they’re producing this

isn’t 90 because I’ve heard comparisons

to oh this runup in the market is like

99 and 2000 and I’m like no it really

isn’t it’s one it’s very tight it’s a

very small group of companies but these

are actually companies that make a hell

of a lot of money and that’s why right

now I hate to say it but this is where

you want to put your money on the

pullbacks because right now they’re

under a lot of pressure there’s going to

be continued pressure but they’re still

making money so their valuations and

their pees have come down but their

EPS’s are going up why wouldn’t you

invest in the money that’s just printing

tax but I think right now they’re a

place that they provide a great

liquidity source for a lot of funds

because people are panicked and they’re

bailing out of mutual funds and

everything else and so these provide a a

massive amount of liquidity that’s why

they’re under pressure but I think the

reality is let’s say we get a few trade

deals few skins on the wall with trade

deals the tax thing gets worked out i

would venture to say money is going to

start flying back into these because

they’re continuing to make money when is

the operative question but actually who

cares if your bottom line is three to

five or five to 10 year plus out why not

why not yeah why not be plowing money

into the market now yeah so next one is

University of Michigan consumer

sentiment wow

yes yeah this is basically negative

comments on government economic policy

news it’s almost twice as bad as it’s

ever been including coming out of the

financial crisis this was the fiscal

cliff period of time this was just pre

this was when they were talking about

raising rates going into COVID this is

we’re worse than ever before

yeah and it’s funny it’s hilarious to me

because I watch I share a lot on

LinkedIn of one of the analysts at at

Fidelity which I’ve known Yurian for

years when he was completely unknown he

was this weird little analyst at at

Fidelity and now he’s been promoted to

the top Yuri Timmer and it was funny

because I love watch I love reading the

comments when Yurian posts something i

love reading the comments and so many of

these you can just see the political

focus of some of these people that that

comment and I’m like you know

what none of us knows what’s going to

happen with all of this and as much as

everybody like wants to say oh because

of all this trade stuff we’re going to

have all these problems and everything

else nobody knows nobody’s ever done

anything like this before so we’re just

going to have to see what happens

venture to say if anybody says they know

they really they have no clue because

there has never been anything like this

happen in history so we did do a I did

do a slide but mine was handmade last

week because I’ve been trying this slide

from and I saw this and I’m like ah all

right somebody did the heavy lifting for

me so it’s interesting enough some

analysts have not moved their price

target hovering in the high 6000s and

hovering around 7,000 oppenheimer was

the highest and now they’re right in the

middle again okay here they are i still

think this is interesting bca we did

recognize him last week jp Morgan they

got rid of Kanovic who was incredibly

brilliant but he just was sour on the

market in the economy he was probably 12

to 18 months too early nobody could time

these things no econ look you know this

right economists are wrong more than 50%

of the time that’s why they still got a

job for life but I just think this is I

think this is interesting i don’t know

what stands out to you oh it’s just it’s

the thing that stands out to me is none

of them wants to be wrong so if one of

the big players makes a move it seems

like they all want to okay we’ve got to

come back too because we don’t want to

be really wrong and show all these

people i honestly I I say to Wells Fargo

and Deutsche you know what thanks for

standing your guns even H or HSBC Scotia

Bank Funstrat you know what they’re

holding their guns and saying “Okay we

we’re going to see how this all works

out.” I fall into that same crowd i’m

like “You know what at the beginning of

the year that was my prediction it’s

what I saw happening nothing that

happens in the middle of the year is

going to make a hill of beans

difference.” And when it all gets fixed

and things are normalized again they’re

going to they’re going to move their

targets again yeah and it’ll be off to

the races and all these idiots will come

back and what’s going to end up

happening is that bottom group there

where all the Greek or where all the

blacks are are just going to come back

they’ll go right back to where their

thing was and be like “Oh that’s what we

predicted at the beginning of the year.”

Yeah but you weasled around and pulled

back and okay we’re just going to keep

chasing it around it doesn’t help to

predict after after it’s happened and

then say you’re accurate what I’d like

them to do because you know this is

really for PR more than anything else

and we’ve talked about this what they

should do is exactly what you and I did

here’s our bull case yep here’s our bare

case here’s our base case and based on

what happens throughout the year we’re

not going to change it because

essentially you’re setting your field

goal post based on numbers and things we

all know will change but give me give me

a break you’re going to keep moving your

target that’s Yeah I love that yeah once

again I love it and I appreciate the

fact that these some of these guys are

just sticking to their guns and saying

“You know what this is what we saw at

the beginning of the year knowing all

that we knew we already knew that the

president was going to come in and do

tariff stuff and all that.” Yeah it’s a

lot more heavy-handed than was expected

but you knew for a fact because he for

the last two and a half years he’s been

campaigning on this you knew exactly

what was going to happen so don’t tell

me that you got surprised no all of a

sudden with what’s going on here and and

I think the ones that haven’t changed

their target I just think they’re

waiting a couple of months they’re all

running their models but they’re like

“All right let’s see how this thing

shakes out before we we start creating

change.” Yeah because the thing is okay

yeah it’s pulled back right now but

we’ve just seen over the past couple

days the market has run back massively

on just some simple news okay he’s not

going to fire the Fed chair okay not

like he actually could that was the

funny part everybody’s like “He’s going

to fire the Fed chair.” He can’t fire

the Fed chair he’s got to work that’s

why there’s that separation of politics

from the Fed although sometimes our It’s

got to be for cause there’s no cause

there

all right so our last one I like We

should probably be doing this once a

month but good with the way things are

moving yes this I think I had this in

early February health care sector was my

sector for the year it is up the biotech

is down because that’s where I I have a

decent amount of client money invested

but healthcare is still going to perform

energy has surprised me because oil has

been down

and I think it’s going to continue it’s

in the It’s really It’s not the big oil

companies that are doing well here it’s

the oil field service it It’s basically

the stuff close to the wellhead what

surprised me is the uh the driller or

the the pipelines which that’s usually a

theme that I have or it’s a theme I’ve

had and those have not been doing as

well and that’s they’re subject to more

interest rates too yeah but they’re

pumping Yeah they’re pumping gas like

crazy or they’re pumping oil like crazy

and those are long-term contracts so I

think that’s just a people not really

understanding that business very well

part but uh I agree but where where do

you get that yeah where do you get that

chart from i’ll send you the link okay

no just for the for the audience oh

you’ll put it in the show notes how’s

that we’ll put it in the show notes

afterwards

i have a bookmark so I think it’s a good

source for a lot of people because I

think it’s just interesting to see

what’s doing well at any given time and

you and I both said healthcare was going

to do well and I think it will it’s just

some of the health care side is getting

a little wonky a little bit with supply

chains and stuff like that of are they

going to be tariffed and things along

those lines but but it’s interesting i

think it will do well yeah I agree

all right folks thank you for joining us

we tried to keep these things tight

we’ll be doing a second show this week

so make sure that you keep an eye out

because we’ll be dropping both of them

here in the next couple days and we’ll

see you on the next show