Hello everybody. Welcome to the sense of

things with Ron and Jeff here. Another

week of fun frolicking and little bit of

economics and so in the stock market

just for the fun of it. Today on today’s

show, Ron and I got some similar things

that we’re going to talk about. We’re

going to discuss a little bit about

credit card spending. We’re going to

talk about consumer spending. In

addition to that, the jobs market. We’ll

have a little bit of a coverage on the

the Fed and what we saw last week, a

little bit of Nvidia earnings today, and

a couple of current events. So stay

tuned and we’ll be right back on in just

one second.

[Music]

Hey everybody, welcome to the show. Ron,

how are you my friend?

Good. I’m having fun. You’re probably

frolicking. I don’t know. But uh I can’t

believe I’m going to say this, but

Monday is September 1st.

It is freaking crazy. We’re rolling into

the last the last third of the year at

this point. And I I feel like I’ve not

accomplished anything as that I had

planned to so far. And based on let’s

just say seven months, it feels like

we’re in year six of the Trump

presidency.

Yes, we’ve moved at that pace. That’s

for sure.

Yep. Yep. All right. Where would you

like to start?

Why don’t we kick off with you? You got

some fun stuff to talk about and then

I’ll follow in behind you.

All right. I’m going to try to do this

every now and then, but this past week

in history, 1897, Omobile first

manufactured in the old motor vehicle in

Lancing. I didn’t know this. I never

knew it was stolen, but the Mona Lisa

was stolen until 1911 in regard. And I

always thought about this with the art

thieves. Where are they going to sell

this stuff? They’re not.

They can’t sell.

It’s only one of them.

You’re not going to fence fine art.

Yeah.

Just ridiculous. All right.

The funny part is that there’s that one

museum in Boston, the Isabella Stewart

Gardner Museum in Boston, and there was

three paintings that were stolen out of

there, and they were very famous

paintings and stuff like that. What do

you do with them? So, some weird rich

guy has got these in a vault someplace

that only he can look at. It just I

don’t get it.

No, it’s ridiculous. Yeah.

And ju just in case you like Bambi.

Bambi was released in 1942.

I like Bambi. Bambi was cool, man. Bambi

and Dumbo, my two favorite.

Hawaii became the 50th US state.

Okay.

Crazy is released by Paty Klein, which

was written by Willie Nelson. A lot of

I did not know Willie wrote it. That’s

Oh, you didn’t know that?

No, I didn’t know Willie wrote it. That

was back in the day when he was wearing

I think that was his first famous song

he wrote.

Dirty Dancing was released in theaters.

All the ladies like

Nice. I thought it was actually earlier

than that, but yeah.

And it’s hard to believe it’s only 29

years that the first commercial commerce

type browser was released

and doesn’t even exist.

Well, 3.0. was released before that, but

3 was like their major overhaul because

it was starting to really gain traction

in 95 and 30 had a lot of the big

features and I think that’s when that’s

when Microsoft went apeshit to kill them

with their browser.

Yeah. That and gave their browser away

for free or just basically forced

everybody to to use it on the Microsoft.

If I remember, I think Netscape was

charging $80 to $100 for theirs and

Microsoft was free. And obviously the

first couple versions of Microsoft, it

was brutal. It wasn’t even anything

close to Netscape. But people will take

free over something else, even if it

just does a little bit for them.

It just it makes me laugh though with

it’s okay. Everything is everything for

me is the Google organism. I just told

you I switched computers and it’s so

funny with you with a brand new

Microsoft computer. It’s, hey, you could

be using Edge. It runs on the same

technology as Chrome. And I’m like, I

don’t want it. Okay, stop trying to

force it on me.

And a lot of the apps run not only

better on Chrome. Run better meaning

more faster and efficient, but

apparently it’s got other security hooks

or whatever that Microsoft is just

susceptible, the edge is just

susceptible to all the viruses.

Yeah. But yeah, we keep upgrading or

updating all the time. Please stop

updating.

And just in time for the holiday

weekend, we want all the cities that

have the highest DUIs. So, you don’t

know why Omaha has the highest, but I

got to tell you, Chicago the lowest that

I mean, with all the crime they’ve had

there in the last 10 years and

everything going on,

that’s the one crime that isn’t

happening in Chicago. There, there you

go.

But you got to figure if you’re living

in the city, that could be

Yeah. If you’re living in the city, you

don’t drive. People drive from outside

the city in. But yeah, very few people

in the city drive. They take the subways

or Ubers or whatever because it’s a

nightmare to drive in.

Yep. And Philadelphia is 66. One of the

lower ones.

And Austin’s 1.34, but Phoenix, I guess

this makes sense because we got bars on

every corner, man. And then it doesn’t

matter what time of the year,

people are drinking and eating here. It

just there is no consumer slowdown here

in the Phoenix area.

Well, in in Austin, I would say there’s

more DUIs from people smoking weed than

than drinking. Yeah. So, they’re the

ones that are driving

really slow.

Oh, good. All right.

This is a few weeks old, but these are

the cities with the highest price cuts

to housing listings. Denver surprised

me. Phoenix is always up there because

whenever they have a hot market, they

always overbuild anyway.

Yeah, they overbuild and then you have

all the Californians coming in and

buying rental real estate and everything

else.

And San Jose doesn’t San Jose doesn’t

surprise me because of the mass exodus

out of California, especially from

Silicon Valley moving here in Texas. So,

people are trying to get the hell out of

there because they know the taxes up

there is some of the worst in the

country next to Connecticut. Absolutely.

And Connecticut prices declining there.

New York, New York, I think that Yeah.

New York, New York, I bet is going to be

up here if they vote in the doofus

that’s that’s winning the race right

now.

I There’s no way that could happen.

Listen, I used to love going in the city

for years when I lived. It was a train

ride in for me. And since COVID or even

a little bit before COVID,

you couldn’t pay me to go there as much.

I miss it, but it’s not worth it.

Yeah. I have no interest in the

slightest of going to New York City.

No. And then this came out a couple

weeks ago. This is week overweek change.

Yeah.

And I thought there were four standouts

to me because

it’s summertime. People love to do work

on their house and they love to travel.

And and here we are.

Airlines consistently down. gas.

Gas prices are down. Why aren’t people

traveling more? Entertainment

summertime. Why aren’t people

entertaining more? And I don’t

understand it. People love to do home

projects, especially during the summer.

Yeah.

This was shocking to me. I can’t tell

you. Look, how many times have we said,

“Hey, this could be a catalyst.” But

yeah.

Yeah. And I mean, you see it and I can

tell you from just booking a trip for my

anniversary again for the fall, man. And

I tell you what, lodging prices have not

come down. I

We’re going to to B Yeah, we’re going to

Boston and just finding we’re we weren’t

staying in Boston, but we’re staying

there like the night we come in and then

the night we the night before we leave.

And I’m like, man, cheapest hotel that I

can find that wasn’t a disaster area was

like 450 bucks a night. I’m like, you

are insane, guys.

I’ve only I’ve gone up there for

business a few times over the years.

Doesn’t matter. They New York, Boston,

and San Francisco are the three highest

in the country.

Yeah, it is always expensive, but it is

off the chart because we go pretty much

once a year and it is off the charts

expensive.

And you’re not even in the room

twothirds of the time.

No, of course not. Yeah, we are. Cuz we

we’re old, man. We get up early and then

we’re home. We’re back at the hotel by

about four o’clock in the afternoon.

All right. And my last one, I love this.

Of course, good artists create, great

artists steal. So, I wanted to borrow

this chart. Sam Row did this one that

even if you bought at the all-time high.

Yeah.

As long as time is on your side, you’re

still going to make money. So, again,

this kind of goes into I tell clients,

don’t look at your accounts every day or

even once a week sometimes because it’s

not a video game once or twice a month,

but once or twice a quarter you should.

Y,

but you don’t do knee-jerk reactions.

And if you take a look at the last 15

years, every dip was a buy, no matter

where we were.

Yeah. I just It’s timing the market, not

timing the market a lot of cases.

Yep. All right. What do you got?

All right. Let’s get in here real quick.

Some similarities, I will say,

but let me share this as a slideshow

here so we can see the whole thing. All

right. So, this week was a lot of fun

because we got to see the wonderful

brains that run Cracker Barrel just

completely destroy value. Cracker

Barrel, if you haven’t heard the story,

it’s been everywhere. If you haven’t

heard the story, they have decided or

their CEO, their brilliant CEO decided,

you know what, we just need to

completely rebrand brand. That’s why the

company is not doing well. So, we need

to completely reband. So, they decided

to change their logo, take out the old

guy with the girl, and it’s just this

boring logo. We’re going to repaint the

insides, bright colors, and that’s going

to get more people coming in. What they

ended up doing was literally driving

147,000 or $147 million of value away

from the company in one single day. If

you didn’t see this on Facebook, it was

everywhere.

And within about four or five days, they

realized what a stupid mistake they had

made and flip-flopped and caved in going

back to what it was before and

everything else. But it’s funny. It, as

I told Ron, I feel like it’s like

watching an alcoholic not realize that

the problem is them. If you’ve gone to

Cracker Barrel over the last several

years, it is a lot of times

inconsistency in service, food quality

has sucked. And nobody wants to be once

again told what to do. Just make good

food, serve me well, incent your people

to to serve me well, and guess what?

You’ll make lots of money.

I’ll tell you couple of quick things.

Number one, whenever you get a new CEO

or sales are flat to negative,

they always feel like we got to rebrand.

Why? You don’t have to rebrand. No.

Number two,

if they didn’t make an announcement

about the logo and they just rolled it

out,

nobody would have noticed. I think

that’s two. But number three, I’m going

to give you two other quick examples.

It’s remember 40 40 plus years ago, we

did this a couple months ago about bad

business decisions. 30 plus years ago,

KO said, “Oh, you know what? Our sales

are flat. We’re gonna make new Coke.”

How did that work out? And even the CEO

admitted work so well.

Hey, it worked out for us because we got

all this PR. They went back to the old

Coke, the classic Coke for a while, it

was called, and they did well. And the

last thing I did I wanted to bring up

was a couple years ago, they did it as a

stunt to draw attention. Remember IHOP

went to COB like the international house

of burgers and it was a total stunt.

They would all they only did it for a

month and they went back and it wasn’t

because it was like going to be a

legitimate change. They just did it as a

PR stunt.

Of course they did. Yeah. Which this

wasn’t a PR stunt in any way, shape, or

form, but it’s like they just don’t even

understand who their audience is. And

it’s it drives me crazy with some of

these companies that feel like we’ll get

a broader swath of people coming in. I’m

like, if you go to a Cracker Barrel, at

least by me, I don’t know if it is in

other parts of the country, if I go to a

Cracker Barrel on a Sunday, there are

African-American people, white people,

Hispanics, families, individuals, old

guys sitting in the corner drinking

coffee. It is a complete swath of the

entire community. That is not the

problem. The problem is you went from

food that filled a plate to there’s a

lot of white space on that plate. And

it’s like they’re scared to raise prices

just a little bit to compensate for

that. But it’s it’s inconsistency with

food, which it’s been for the last three

to four years.

But Jeff, honestly, I’m not going to

decide to go to a place because of its

logo. I was more poed about them getting

rid of Angela and Uncle Ben.

I know. Same thing. It’s

Who cares? It’s not Ray’s. Godamn it. We

still got to buy the Actually, you know

what? I still have some of the serves

with the Andramim on it because I went

out and bought three of them, but you

know how long syrup lasts.

Yeah, I know. In my house, it lasts a

little bit longer. Okay. What do you

got?

Travis and Tay getting married. Well,

who freaking cares? I don’t care at all.

Everybody’s doing an over under how long

it’s going to last.

I know. speculation around Taylor Swift,

their engagement has become hyped and is

influencing the prediction markets. So,

not just that, but even rippling into

stock discussions and everything else.

So, apparently now

this is that it’s a new audience for the

Tay-Tay fans out there that that are

getting involved in the stock side of

things. All right. Irrational Exuberance

Chinese style. You got to show your

screen.

In a twist of irrational exuberance,

Jeff, you got to show your screen.

Oh,

it may catch up. Hang on.

Can you see it?

No.

Weird. Okay, let me get back here. Let

me share one more time. How’s that?

There we go.

Okay.

Rational exuberance.

Rational exuberance. Chinese style. So,

in a twist of irrational exuberance,

Chinese stock market is surging. What

the heck is surging

with small investors using credit cards

to pile it to the Chinese stock market?

Wait till they hit our levels of debt on

credit cards.

There we go. Yeah, they’re just trying

to catch up with us at this point. All

right, the Dow hits a record high for

the first time in 2025 last Friday after

Powell’s speech, which I listened to it

and I’m like, I don’t really hear what

he’s saying. Once again, people hear

what they want to hear or whatever, but

expecting rate cuts going into 2026. So,

the market went crazy and then now

they’ve got something else to worry

about this week. But, we had one heck of

a run there and a big market day up. Uh,

yesterday Nvidia reported earnings and

is AI starting to get a little bit ahead

of itself. Nvidia earnings were great.

They were off the charts better than

they were the previous quarters and the

previous year.

However, we’re starting to see some

sales growth slowing and profit margins

fading and so

you can only grow double digit growth

for so long.

Yeah, I know. And can only be the most

valuable company in the world for a

small period of time. That said,

investor in Nvidia, clients in Nvidia, I

just it’s it’s still the best chip

company that I can see that’s out there.

Look, if you remember, this happened

during the com. What were two of the big

most valuable companies in the late 90s

and the beginning of 2000s? It was Intel

and Cisco. Where what happened to them?

Yeah.

The last 25 years.

Intel, we’re taking a stake in it as a

country for some strange reason. I don’t

know why, but I guess it’s better than

I think that’s because we because that’s

how we’re going to get our money back.

Yeah. because instead of just dumping

money into the chips act and

basically what they did was they

converted a grant or they they converted

a grant of money to equity which has

never been done in history.

It’s f it has been done before because

we invested in GM when it was going

bankrupt. So it it’s been done before.

It’s just

Did we have a stake in it? Yeah, we had

a stake in it and then we ended up

having to we ended up selling that to

the union at that point after they

worked out all the stuff. We ended up

selling it to the union and the union

owns a big stake in GM at that point.

Yeah, it was the big messy ugly thing.

Are we starting to see a little bit more

CEO confidence? Business activity picked

up and accelerated here in August driven

by manufacturing with the strongest

order growth in 18 months offering a

positive counter to slowdown fears.

However,

what we’re seeing though is consumer

spending slowing down partly with what

Ron talked about with credit card debt

and everything else, but we’re seeing

consumer spending slow down and we’re

starting to see the ma the labor market

weaken. So, the Fed better get on the

ball here pretty quick. And this whole

wait and see approach is I think they’re

going to be as always behind the

eightball because they’re driving at 60

miles per hour looking out the back

window. Last but not least, there’s not

going to be any help from the housing

market. We talked about that with Ron.

Housing market optimism for recovery is

pretty overblown. you’re seeing prices

in some of the markets go down, but I’ll

give you an example. Here in Austin,

prices have been static and people are,

it’s funny because I’ve got a lot of

realtor friends and people are

just adamant about I have to get this

price for my house. And I think part of

that is, and I’ve said this all along,

all these people that moved here to

Austin and paid stupid money for houses

from came here from California that are

now having to relocate and they want to

try and get their money back and it’s

just not going to happen.

Now, as a matter of fact, I had the

other slide on it about uh price uh

price drops with listings.

Yeah. until mortgage rates are under

six, but in the mid to low fives, which

could take another year. Remember, we

did a one full point cut in Fed rate,

and it did had a little knee-jerk

reaction to the downside with mortgage

rates, but we went right back up to the

high sixes again. I don’t understand it.

I heard that

the the mortgages are more tied to the

the 10 and the 30year Treasury than it

is the Fed rate, which is fine. even all

them have come down and I think that

with the banks and I don’t want to

really give my true opinion. I think

that they don’t want they don’t want the

mortgage rate to go down for a while

because they’re going to lose money even

though it would be a refi boom and it

would help the economy because people

take money out of that and spend it.

Yeah. I look at it is you just an

example here in Austin, you’ve got our

market went through the freaking roof

from 2020 to 2024 and it’s been flat to

nothing, but we haven’t seen the price

cuts here because we still have people

moving into the area and our inventory,

they’re just not building as much. The

problem is they built a lot,

but like Austin, there’s no property

really to build new stuff. There’s no

new inventory. So, you have to go into

the outer areas like where I live and

they’re just not building as much right

now. They’re building new.

They have a lot of new housing. People

are coming in buying cash. It’s the

people with the existing houses that are

that want to move and but they’re lot

they’re either locked into a sub3 rate

or they can’t get the buyers. There’s a

lot of stuff that’s been on the market

here for a while. It’s been taken up.

So, we’ll have to we’ll have to monitor

and see what happens. Yeah. No, it’s

crazy. I I look at it as we’ve still got

a long way to go and this is definitely

a bit of a challenge that we’re going to

face, I think, for quite a while. And I

think we’re going to face this. I

honestly, we’ve talked about this ad

nauseium, but I really sense that I

think people have finally gotten to the

end of the of the rope when it comes to

spending at this point and nothing is

really going to help. And then if you

have any kind of further slowdown in the

jobs market, it’s just it’s going to

crack.

It’s a slow trickle right now in the

jobs market. We would have to see some

type of a spike and there has to be a

catalyst for that. I don’t see anything

right now in the short term.

Yeah, I see it from the from the

construction perspective. construction

jobs. If you’re a electrician, a

plumber, anything like that, you can

work as much as you want at this point

because there’s just more work than they

have plumbers and electricians. But

yeah,

other than that, especially in the I

think in the tech space, it’s definitely

going to be a challenge because I’m I

hear my tech recruiters that work in my

office here uh by me and they’re still

recruiting, but it’s not at the pace

that they were doing it, you know, a

year ago

by any.

I know several people, engineers,

pharmaceutical, whatever, they’re having

a very tough time getting a job right

now.

Yeah. Yep. All right, folks. Ron, great

week. look forward to what’s what

happens this week. It’s always fun. But

we’ve also got a holiday coming up. So,

we’ll have a Labor Day coming up this

week. So, everybody enjoy your last days

of summer and we get back to the fall.

And amazingly, the next time we talk to

you, we’re going to be in the month of

September, nine months in and I it this

year has flown so fast. It’s amazing.

Yep. I hear you. All right. Until then,

have a good holiday weekend.

All right, guys. Have a good week and we

will see you back here the very next

time.