📉 Are tariffs INFLATIONARY… or DEFLATIONARY? Episode 126 of Cents of Things takes on one of the most misunderstood economic questions of 2025—and the answers may surprise you. Jeff Kikel breaks down a brand-new San Francisco Fed study that analyzes 150 years of tariff history, showing that tariff hikes have historically reduced inflation but also increased unemployment. Meanwhile, Ron Lang explores the newly triggered Titanic Signal, what it predicts for markets over the next 2–8 weeks, and why retail numbers will be the deciding factor for year-end performance. This episode covers: ⚠️ The Titanic Signal’s historical accuracy and what it’s forecasting now 📉 Why tariffs may reduce CPI by 1–2% 📈 Why unemployment usually rises after tariff shocks 🤖 AI’s mixed impact on jobs—white collar layoffs vs. blue-collar growth 💡 State-by-state electricity costs & debt-to-income ratios 🏭 The coming boom in factory construction and U.S. reshoring 🧠 Why the Fed may be completely misreading tariff impacts Plus, Ron takes us through: 🕰️ This Week in History – Gettysburg, the Suez Canal, Edison’s phonograph, the invention of time zones, and more. If you want to understand what REALLY might happen in 2025… this is the episode. 🎧 Watch more episodes at: www.centsofthings.com 👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro: Titanic Signal & new Fed tariff study 01:00 – Thanksgiving chatter & Arizona/Texas weather 02:00 – This Week in History: Gettysburg, Suez Canal, Edison’s phonograph 05:00 – Time zones, daylight savings & U.S. grid trivia 07:30 – The Heidi Game & TV chaos 09:00 – The Titanic Signal explained: 2–8 week market outlook 10:30 – Electricity cost by state (shocking differences) 12:00 – Household debt-to-income: Why Idaho tops the list 14:00 – Largest data centers & the coming AI-power crisis 16:00 – San Francisco Fed’s 150-year tariff study 17:00 – Why tariffs have historically reduced inflation 18:00 – Why unemployment rises after tariff hikes 20:00 – Tariff history: 1870–2025 breakdown 22:00 – Uncertainty shocks & the wealth effect 23:00 – Potential 2025 recession triggers 24:00 – White collar job losses vs. blue collar expansion 26:00 – AI’s uncertain impact on the labor market 27:00 – Why generative AI is still unreliable 28:00 – Implications for markets in 2025

TRANSCRIPT

COT 126 ===

Jeff Kikel: [00:00:00] Hello. Cents of things.  It’s Jeff and Ron here once again for another  

week of the sense of things on the show today.  We’ve got a lot of good stuff. Ron has got a  

plethora of different statistics and things  like that. One thing he’s gonna talk about is  

the Titanic signal, which I am waiting with  bated breath to learn a little bit about.

And so should you, I’m also gonna cover  a. A chart or a, a report that came out  

of the San Francisco Fed and I will just  title that. What if tariffs are actually  

deflationary? I’ll leave it at that.  I’ll see you back here in just a second.

Jeff Kikel: Hey everybody, welcome  to the show Ron. How you doing

Ron Lang: bud? How do things are good.

I can’t [00:01:00] believe next week’s  Thanksgiving. All the Christmas stuff was  

coming out before Halloween. The retailers  in the supermarkets are desperate. I

Jeff Kikel: know when I’m walking  around in shorts and a t-shirt and  

I’m hearing Christmas music,  it’s just a little weird.

Ron Lang: Growing up in the northeast  without a chill in the air or whatever,  

it’s been tough, but I gotta tell you.

It’s been raining chilly here in Arizona.  Yeah, so it’s almost like Christmas weather.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. We’re finally getting that  storm that you guys got over the last few  

days. It finally wandered its way over our way. So  overnight we’re supposed to get a bunch of rain.  

I gotcha. I don’t think we’re gonna get a bunch  of cool, but we’re gonna get a bunch of rain.

Ron Lang: Yeah. Yeah. You’re definitely  gonna get rain. We’ve had more rain here  

on and off for the last three weeks in a short  period of time than I could ever remember,  

being here. Yeah, you could take our rain  and take the chill. Whatever works for you.

Jeff Kikel: We’d need something  at this point, so rain.

Rain would be good. You’ve got some cool stuff for  us. A whole bunch of little bits and pieces. Yeah.

Ron Lang: Let’s

Jeff Kikel: start out

Ron Lang: with this week in  history. Okay. So 1777 articles  

of Confederation [00:02:00] submitted to the  states for ratification. Interesting. Yes.  

1863 Lincoln travels to Gettysburg to give his  famous but short speech, and I totally forgot.

Like I, I still don’t understand  why this is the most, one of,  

basically the most famous presidential speech  in history next to FDR on December 8th,  

1941. But I heard this speech was like literally  like less than 10 or 15 minutes, 14 minutes.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. 14 minutes.

Ron Lang: Yeah. I don’t  understand that. All right.

1869, the Suez Canal opens, and ever  since people are ready to go to war.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And if you remember a few years  back, ships kept running into the side of it.

Ron Lang: I gotta tell you, can you imagine being  a contractor, working for the oil companies and  

trying to pilot one of these tankers through  there and not knowing if a fricking missile or  

an underwater I could not imagine like the level  of constant anxiety and danger on a daily basis.

Jeff Kikel: I know, yeah. [00:03:00] Especially  when the fever pitch is high. And around Yemen  

and stuff like that where they were launching  off missiles at, all kinds of ships over there.

Ron Lang: All right. Scientific, I  thought I love this one. The scientific  

American announces Thomas Edison’s  wonderful invention. The phonograph.

Yes. So everybody, they didn’t realize it was  

that far back. I actually thought it  was around the turn of the century,  

but he was credited with inventing a lot of  things and actually a lot of these things were,  

he took something from somebody did and made  it better a thing. Yeah. It wasn’t his other.

But anyway, it doesn’t matter. But I just  thought this was interesting. ’cause if  

you look at those old phonographs, the  technology and the design. Basically was  

the same for 50 years. Yeah. They didn’t  really change much to it with the big  

ear on it. It really didn’t change much  until maybe the thirties or the forties.

Jeff Kikel: They just made ’em I’ve got one  in my house that I got from my grandmother.  

That’s it’s a [00:04:00] Victrola, and it  basically, how old was it? Basically the same  

tech 1920s ish. Oh. And it basically is exactly  the same thing as the ones with the horn on top.

It’s just in a nice wooden cabinet.

Ron Lang: Yeah. No, that’s nice. That’s a, again,  you don’t see too many of those. If it’s working,  

it’s even better. Yeah. The  problem is finding needles for

Jeff Kikel: the damn things.

Ron Lang: Yeah, I totally forgot about  this, that there were literally thousands  

of time zones in the United States  because everybody, like every town had  

their own time zone and the railroads were  getting pod because, oh, you’re late this.

So the railroads created. The first time zones,  four continental time zones in the United States,  

and essentially that’s what we’ve been ever  since. Yeah, and I just thought this was  

interesting that this was 1883 and before that  it was like complete chaos for a hundred years.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And it was funny  I looked up the other day ’cause we  

had the change in the time zone or the  change in the clocks, daylight savings.

And it was like [00:05:00] 1923 when  that was created, and Hey, I don’t

Ron Lang: care. I’m in Arizona.  We don’t change this. I know.

Jeff Kikel: It never changes for  you Alaska. We’re the one of the

Ron Lang: only two, Alaska and us. That’s it.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. I just laugh because  it’s like it’s for energy efficiency.  

It’s nothing to do with energy efficiency anymore.

It makes no difference.

Ron Lang: I am sure in some parts of the country  that may hold true if you’re depending on where  

you are with the sun and whatever, but  at the end of the day, gimme a break.

Jeff Kikel: I think it’s, I  think it’s lazy. People not  

wanting to change things,  quite frankly is all it’s,

Ron Lang: I don’t know. It’s crazy.

All right. Next 1, 19 23. Garrett Morgan  Patents. Oops, sorry I spelled that wrong.  

The three position traffic signal. Which I’m  thinking to myself, you needed a patent for

Jeff Kikel: that, but alright,

Ron Lang: let us,

Jeff Kikel: yeah. Mean anything like that. Yeah.  

’cause if you’re gonna sell  it, you want a patent? Yeah.

Ron Lang: 1968 TV viewers outrage as the  first football game is cut off to air.

Heidi and the Raiders score two  [00:06:00] touchdowns in nine seconds.  

So obviously I don’t remember this, but  I do remember over the years. Everybody  

referring to this as the Heidi game. Yep.  And this would, remember, this would never  

happen in today’s world with all the sports  betting never happen. No. They wait till the

Jeff Kikel: very end.

And it’s funny, I remember the, was it like the  two years ago that Billy Joel did his farewell  

thing on, on NBC and they cut off like the last.  Segment of it, like it was a, he was right in  

the middle of starting a new song and they just  cut it off and went to the news. I’m like, okay,  

but when a frigging football game goes an hour  and a half longer than it’s supposed to, oh yeah.

Ron Lang: We’re not gonna cut that off. If  you think about it because now. Remember  

back then it was only one o’clock and four  o’clock games? Yep. Then they added time  

’cause they wanted the pre-game show for  the commercials and all that other crap.  

Now the games don’t go the, I mean they  don’t finish in two and a half, 2 45.

They’re 3 23. [00:07:00] 3, 3 30 now. And back  then there was only three channels. So it’s hey,  

game’s over. Hey, we gotta do  commercials ’cause people bought  

time on Heidi. Heidi. Alright. 1973.  Nixon, I’m not a crook, I’m not a crook.  

Yes you are. I hate to tell you, I gotta tell  you, I didn’t see this to many years later.

19 75, 1 flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest opens  in theaters. I’ve only seen it twice. It was  

a good watch once, a decent watch twice.  I don’t know if I could watch it a third  

time. Yeah. But do you know who the producer of  this movie was? I have no idea. Michael Douglas,  

who didn’t appear in the movie  really, and he put his good friend  

from acting school into this movie, and  I believe it was his first movie role.

Guess who the actor is, or

Jeff Kikel: was trying to remember the  other people. I remember Jack Nicholson,  

but I don’t remember who else. He played the

Ron Lang: character Martini. I do remember  that it’s, I’ve [00:08:00] only seen it once or

Jeff Kikel: twice, so I couldn’t

Ron Lang: tell you. Danny DeVito. Really? Yeah.

Jeff Kikel: That’s

Ron Lang: hilarious. Played  because they were all psychopaths.

I, I can’t remember what his thing was,  but he, it was like a buzz cut hair. Like  

you would almost not recognize him. ’cause  everybody thinks of Louis de Palmer from  

taxi. Yes. But it’s a good flick. It’s a  definitely a good flick. And of course,  

that’s where Nurse Ratchet came from,  right? Yes. That was from the whole thing.

A lot of people don’t realize, oh, like  when you think of a mean nurse Ratchet,  

that this is the movie it came from.  That’s where it came from. Yeah. And  

in a special election in 2003, the Terminator  became the 38th governor of California. And  

what a crap show all that was. Oh God yes.  So anyway, that is this week in history.

In history, giving my best belts  of on this week in baseball. Yeah,  

lots of lots this week. So I know it’s not  the best graphic, but you got the Titanic  

signal and where’s the Titanic signal? Is this  triggered about a month a week and a half ago,  

and basically it’s saying when the [00:09:00]  Titanic signal triggers, where are we?

1, 2, 3, all the way up to eight weeks  later. What the medium and whatever,  

and typically negative. And we were  talking in our pregame, I believe  

that we’re gonna be negative probably through  Thanksgiving, maybe the first week of December,  

because that’s when we’re gonna start  to get retail numbers for the holiday.

And if it is weak numbers for retail I think we’re  gonna be flat to negative for the rest of the year  

if it’s somewhat positive. We’ll see what happens.  But if if it’s somewhat positive. If Walmart’s

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, if Walmart’s  numbers are any indication we  

should have a pretty positive retail season.

Ron Lang: Yeah. Yeah. We’ll see where it goes. I  remember, do you remember the hindenburgs signal?  

Oh, I know. It worked all the way up to about  15 years ago and then it triggered four or five  

more times and the market kept going up. Yeah.  All that free money sloshing around is still

Jeff Kikel: profiting.

It’s the I call I want the Uriel l  rubini signal, oh, Dr. It’s always gonna

Ron Lang: go

Jeff Kikel: down. It’s

Ron Lang: always going well.  Him and [00:10:00] Mark Faber,  

if you remember Mark Faber. Oh yeah. He sounds  like a Bond villain. And he kept saying,  

buy gold. Buy gold. Even though when gold was  going down years ago, but, all right, here we go.

Billy was right eventually, if you bought it  from like 2002. Oh look, a broken clock is  

right twice a day too. I always tell people when  do you remember to get new wipers for your car?  

When it rains. Yes. That’s when you remember.  Yeah. Not when out when the sun is shining. All  

those people are eventually right at some point,  but the, you might have to wait five, 10 years.

Yeah. So I thought this was interesting. This  is the average cost of electricity. Wow. In  

the United States, I knew California was gonna  be the highest New York. That makes sense too,  

with unions and a lot of the  other stuff. Arizona’s pretty  

high. Yeah. But obviously it does  make sense for, interesting enough,  

with one of the smaller populous states,  but the largest landmass is Alaska.

Yeah. I thought that was interesting. Not too bad  in Texas, listen don’t mess with Texas. Remember,  

there are three power grids in the  [00:11:00] United States. East, west,  

in Texas. Texas has their own power grid. Yep.

Jeff Kikel: Someday it up both

Ron Lang: succeed from the  union. I know it’s gonna happen.

We

Jeff Kikel: have our own power,  so we don’t need that. And we’ve  

got a coastline and. Whatever else. Yeah.  You could control all the import export,  

that’s for sure. Pretty much. It’s the second  largest Port Gulf of America. You control the east

Ron Lang: side of Gulf. Gulf of America.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Third third or fourth  largest port in the country in Houston.

Ron Lang: And here’s the, here’s what  was interesting. DC which is not a state,  

but they’re 19. That’s pretty high. But think  about it, I don’t think they got any power  

plants there. They’re probably, I bet they  buy everything off of Virginia, Maryland.

Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: So

Jeff Kikel: and it’s interesting New Jersey in,  

there’s 17 cents that’s almost  doubled in the last year.

So I don’t know when this thing was done,  but that’s almost doubled because the  

idiot governor shut down like one of  the, one of the nuclear power plants,  

which I’m like, that creates  no greenhouse gases at all.  

And then three or [00:12:00] four of their  other. Coal plants or something like that.

So yeah, we’re gonna do windmills  and whatever. I pretty much windmills  

’cause there’s really not much land to,  to be able to do any kind of solar there.

Ron Lang: Yeah.

Jeff Kikel: Alright,

Ron Lang: next one. House income to  debt ratio. I just wanted to bring  

this up real quick. I got one other  chart might as well around the holiday  

time talking about the US I thought  this was interesting where Idaho.

Has by the way, you not the hoe. That’s Idaho.  Yeah. Household debt to income ratio. Idaho is  

the highest. I don’t get that. I know that it’s  not a huge. Populous state. No. But why the  

highest debt to income ratio is there? I don’t  know. Utah’s pretty big. Arizona and Colorado  

pretty big. I would’ve thought it would’ve been  one of the southern states, Mississippi, Alabama.

Yeah. But they’re actually on a pretty low,  

maybe because they don’t have the  credit to borrow. I don’t know.

Jeff Kikel: They’re the only thing I can think  

with Idaho is all the. [00:13:00] All  the unsuccessful Californians moved to.  

Idaho ’cause they’ve had a massive  influx of people from California.

Ron Lang: Yeah.

Jeff Kikel: So maybe it’s, they  went there and they can’t find jobs  

and they still have all the debt  that they had out in California.

But also Hawaii’s the highest also  that doesn’t make much sense because  

you need some money to own some  land there, as yeah. But there’s

not that many of those people. There’s  a lot of. People who don’t make a lot  

of money that interestingly enough  I think I still have the chart up.

I may pull it up when I do my thing. But there,  there’s a like an a chart from the Federal Reserve  

Bank of St. Louis that shows the unemployment  rates and it’s interesting. The same thing.

Ron Lang: And again, if they show the chart in the  

lower right corner of what it looked  like in 1999, it’s not much different.

Yeah. Not much different at all. Okay. Other than  Idaho getting worse, I think they’re the ones that  

went from moderate to worse, but yeah. Alright.  My last chart, going with the AI theme as we  

[00:14:00] always do every now and then. Largest  data centers in the United States and count on.

Doubling this probably in the next five to  10 years. I thought this was just interesting  

that New York has the the largest data  center in 22.9 million square feet.  

Can you, I can’t imagine the electricity in  the water that’s needed to run these things.  

Everybody talking about why does Arizona, you  can’t get all our water comes from Colorado.

We also basically so does Southern California.  That’s where their water is coming from,  

hence the Hoover Dam or the Boulder  Dam, depending on how you wanna look  

at it. That’s the Colorado water  generating electricity for Vegas.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Yeah. That’s  hilarious. And soon to be Texas,  

we’re gonna have out in the  panhandle area, close to Lubbock.

They’re gonna build the biggest data center in the  

country out there. They’re in process  of building that right now. So that  

thing’s gonna be monstrous. I know  there’s two, it’ll two data centers

Ron Lang: in Phoenix, [00:15:00] obviously.  We got Taiwan Semiconductor that’s got that  

humongous factory north of Phoenix,  and you got Intel that’s in Gilbert.

So with just with them, they’re gonna be  building more data and there’s plenty of  

land for them to build. The issue  is gonna be water and electricity,

Jeff Kikel: yeah. And you’ve got, right here  in Austin, you’ve got Samsung’s building like.  

I think another world in in Taylor, which  is it was a sleepy little railroad town  

up until about four or five years ago, and  all of a sudden Samsung decided to do that.

And then Elon with the with his gigafactory down  here, that thing is massive. It’s like over a mile  

and a half long when you drive by it, it’s just  unbelievable. All right. What do you got? Let me  

let me show my little research project for this  week here. So let me bring that up and share.

So I just happened to be, I’ve been on a little  kick of going through the different Fed websites  

and I was on the [00:16:00] San Francisco  Fed, which I. Really had never gone on before.  

And it actually found a really interesting  paper that just came out by two gentlemen,  

Regis Barnes and a Singh, and the  the paper called What Is Tariff?

What is Tariff Shock Insights from 150 Years of  Tariff Policy. So these two gentlemen went in,  

and they’re looking at, okay. What’s the history  of tariffs been? And of course the Fed think is  

usually, oh, if there’s tariffs, there’s gonna be  inflation and everything else. And they actually.

Have a little bit of a different  opinion and of course this is their  

opinion. It’s not official fed policy,  but I like their thought process. 2025,  

15% jump in tariffs might cool inflation,  but also jobs. Typically what has happened,  

so if you look at history for the last  150 years, when there is a tariff hike.

Typically what happens is you see lower inflation  and higher unemployment as a [00:17:00] result  

of that. So not what the Fed thinks, not what  everybody says, oh, we’re gonna have all this  

inflation. It’s the exact opposite that has tended  to happen in history. So when they looked at it,  

their analysis was a five percentage  point increase in average tariffs.

CPI tends to fall one to two percentage points and  unemployment rises a half to one percentage point,  

and that typically peaks one to two years  after those tariffs hit. So it acts almost  

like when the Fed raises interest rates.  It does something very similar there. And  

so they, they say it’s not like a  classic push type inflation shock.

It’s more of an uncertainty shock that  happens. One of the worst examples of this,  

and typically in the, in our long-term  histories, if you look back into the 1890s  

we had the worst recession or we had the worst  depression that we ever had. Now we thought,  

everybody thinks the 1930s, but it was  much, much worse [00:18:00] in the 1890s.

And you had. Two different  thought processes. Democrats said,  

we don’t want tariffs at all. We’re  gonna cut ’em. And Republicans said,  

we want tariffs. ’cause we wanna have  protectionism. Both of their policies  

sucked. During that time period because in 1893 to  1897, we had the worst depression in US history.

When Democrats were in charge 1894 they cut  tariffs. We had. Massive inflation. I got  

these wrong actually. They’re, they need  to be shoved down, but massive inflation,  

which put the mar yeah. Put the economy in the,  on the breaks. And then Republicans took power  

in 1897 and they said, we’re raising tariffs  higher than they ever had been in history.

Same. Except then all of a sudden we had  high inflation and we had tons of layoffs,  

caused all kinds of hassles until the market  calmed down and inflation went down a few years  

later. So yeah, it was one of those things  [00:19:00] where. It was bad policy period.  

And when you look at where tariff rates were  back then, here’s where tariff rates were.

If you look back to, this is  probably the 1870s post Civil War,  

tariffs went up massively because we were  trying to pay off the Civil War. Plus you  

had the industrial revolution here in  the country. And there were massively  

protectionists. So going through this, you had  multiple times where it went up, it went down.

This was a D, a Democratic. Organ or a Democratic  administration. Then the Republicans came back in,  

then it went down again. Then the Republicans  came in again with the McKinley Act at the end  

of the 19 hundreds, which was even higher tariffs.  Then it dropped a little bit. Then it went back  

up a little bit with the end of McKinley, and  then Teddy Roosevelt came in and he was like.

I don’t even wanna play this game. I’m just  gonna focus on regulations and focus on,  

trust [00:20:00] busting and all that. So he  didn’t do much. Then you have Wilson coming in  

World War II or World War I tariff rates went to  the lowest that they had been in, almost 50 years.

Then 1920s, you had a series of just.  Absolutely stupid tariffs going up.  

And then from that peak point in the  late thirties all the way through,  

it was basically at the time when Roosevelt  came in, it went down down. And then we  

went through a series where it just  was in a gradual decline over time.

2025 biggest one year jump since  the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Disaster,  

which was right here where the idiots  decided to just go crazy with this and  

had 60% tariffs on everything. So in the modern  eras, if you look at it from 1948 through now,  

tariffs really have been on a slow  downward run except [00:21:00] for.

In the middle of the 1970s there was this  big spike up kind of Ford early Carter,  

big spike up. And if you look back now towards,  

I think that was during the oil embargo. Yeah,  it was the oil embargo and then there was all  

kinds of other little goofy tariffs that  went on. You saw, once again, big spike up.

Big spike up in unemployment. Inflation  went down during that same time period,  

from a, it went down and then it spiked  right back up because Carter came in and  

reduced tariffs massively. And then  all of a sudden we had this huge  

runup because of a lot of different  things, but huge runup in inflation.

Jobs stabilized there for a while and  then, throughout Reagan’s presidency.  

They didn’t really change much, just  kinda left them where they were. They  

didn’t really monkey with them at all.  Then we roll into the late nineties,  

into the two thousands. We were at the  lowest tariffs we had ever been in history.

Inflation stayed pretty low.  Unemployment stayed pretty  

level because there weren’t [00:22:00] any  major changes or spikes, tiny changes are,  

okay, big changes, not necessarily always a  good thing. Why does inflation fall? Really  

two big mechanisms are what the authors  of this thing put. Uncertainty, shock.

So trade, war fears stock volatility spikes,  businesses and consumers freeze. I think we saw  

some of this earlier in the year. When there was  just uncertainty of, okay, where are these things  

all at? Now we’re starting to find some stability  in there and not the shock. We might not see as  

much of the craziness, but there’s an uncertainty  effect and a wealth effect, and this is really the  

weird part is typically you have that uncertainty  shock, and then the stock market gets blasted.

The stock markets continued to  go up amongst all this stuff,  

that could be an ongoing thing. And I  think it goes back to what you talked  

about last week on the show that, we’ve  had, what, three years of double digits?

Ron Lang: If we stay at this [00:23:00] level,  plus or minus for the rest of the year, it’ll be  

three straight years of double digit gains, which  has only happened four times in the last 75 years.

Three of those times between 95 and 99. Okay.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Which that, that’s  not necessarily a good thing. And were,  

have we ever had four years in  a row of double digits or no.

Ron Lang: Again, 95 to 99 in a rolling three year  period. We did, so 95 to 99, we were double digit  

every year. And then there was only one other time  prior to that, that we did three years in a row.

And this would be the fifth time? Yeah. 75 years.  Okay we’ll, we shall see, right? Bottom line for  

2025. It’s likely with tariffs. If this, if these  guys’ hypothesis is correct, it’s likely going  

to be dis disinflationary or disinflationary  which head or helps the Fed fight inflation.

Jeff Kikel: Once again, the Fed believes  that because of tariffs we’re gonna have,  

rampant inflation. [00:24:00] They  could be completely wrong on this and  

I think that the problem is they  tend to have that fed think of,  

there’s only one way to look at this but it could  also be recessionary and see higher unemployment.

And slower growth. Which kind of flips  the 2018 to 2019. Now the guys said,  

this, their best empirical evidence that  they have right now. It is a working paper,  

not an official fed view. I think what  potentially could happen in the employment  

situation is. We could see a spike in white  collar unemployment due to the adoption of ai.

As a component of that, we’ve seen  that with with kind of the middle  

management of Amazon got decimated. I  think they laid off 30 or 40,000 people  

that were in the middle management, and  a lot of that is gonna be replaced or.  

Streamlined with AI while we see an  increase in blue collar employment.

’cause there’s a lot of investment [00:25:00]  coming into building of factories, building a  

lot of different things, power plants, everything  else. So is that white collar unemployment gonna  

be offset by the blue collar unemployment? And  if that does, where are your investors? Are your  

investors? More of the white collar people who  are making more money, or is it gonna be that  

the blue collar investors or the blue collar  people start to invest more in the market?

And it offsets that. If we see a  down or decline in the stock market,  

that’s where that wealth effect thing starts to,  to come into the picture. What are your thoughts?

Ron Lang: I think the whole AI  thing is completely undetermined.  

How it may or may not affect. I hear  people that are quote unquote experts.

I just nod my head because they  don’t know. Yeah. Look, there,  

there are definitely some things that AI will  help out. I think autonomous driving and that,  

I think is gonna have more [00:26:00]  of an effect than just AI doing general  

work. I think it’s gonna eliminate most  of coding, for programming already has.

We’ve already seen that. Yeah. It already has  and I, and I believe, I’m hoping in healthcare,  

it helps figure out how to, come up with  drugs or whatever to solve disease. I, but  

my point is like somebody’s gonna a  third of white collar jobs are gonna,  

you don’t know. You don’t know, you don’t know.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And companies, you  still, even though you have ai, I am sorry,  

you still have to have a human kind of checking  it, ’cause even today I was using Grok to analyze  

this a little bit more in detail and, build  some slides for me and I’m reading it. I, and  

I had read the article and I’m like, no, you  completely misinterpreted what was in there.

‘Cause there, whatever bias it has from  whatever sources, it pulls from, it was,  

you still have to have somebody that’s checking  

the information. ‘Cause it’s not that  good. And I hate to tell Google this,  

Google’s [00:27:00] up like $198 today. It went  up from 178 yesterday. Their Gemini three sucks.

Yeah. It sucks beyond belief. Oh,  it’s been, I thought it was getting

Ron Lang: good reviews.

Jeff Kikel: Oh no. It just  launched yesterday and I’m like,  

I went on to it this morning and I  put. This same, this article into,  

to Grok and I put the same article into, to  Google and I think the Google one I just noticed.

I closed the thing down. It was still  spinning. So I don’t know if it’s just  

that they’re getting hit by a bunch of people  on it this morning or whatever. Okay. But it’s  

oodles. Is all I can say. Alright. Alright. And  it’d been my opinion of the other stuff I heard.

Ron Lang: I was reading an  article yesterday about it.

Yeah. Which is why it popped  over 300. I don’t know. Wow. See,

Jeff Kikel: who knows. That’s all I got  for the day. Good stuff. Oops. Yeah,  

it’s just, I think it, it’s interesting and  I think, it made me rethink, [00:28:00] okay,  

what could we see this next year? I think  there’s so many moving parts with the economy  

when it comes to the tax cuts and a lot of the  investment in the country and everything else.

Once again, yes, we might have tariffs  and this. This, could come to be,  

or it could be complete moot and  a different point. But I wanted to  

present that ’cause I thought it was  an interesting article. I’m starting  

to look at a lot of the different feds  ’cause they put out some good stuff.

I don’t know what they smoke down in Atlanta,  

but it they’re on a whole  different wavelength down there.

Ron Lang: I agree. I agree.

Jeff Kikel: All right, man. Thanks folks for  joining us. Make sure that you subscribe to  

the channel and I’d love to hear your  thoughts on some of this stuff. So give  

us a comment and I will make sure I put a  link to that article inside the show notes.

So if you need it you can pull it up. I will  say it’s a little bit, wordy, but but it’s  

good information. So thanks a lot, and we’ll see  you guys back here the very next [00:29:00] time.