📉 Are tariffs INFLATIONARY… or DEFLATIONARY? Episode 126 of Cents of Things takes on one of the most misunderstood economic questions of 2025—and the answers may surprise you. Jeff Kikel breaks down a brand-new San Francisco Fed study that analyzes 150 years of tariff history, showing that tariff hikes have historically reduced inflation but also increased unemployment. Meanwhile, Ron Lang explores the newly triggered Titanic Signal, what it predicts for markets over the next 2–8 weeks, and why retail numbers will be the deciding factor for year-end performance. This episode covers: ⚠️ The Titanic Signal’s historical accuracy and what it’s forecasting now 📉 Why tariffs may reduce CPI by 1–2% 📈 Why unemployment usually rises after tariff shocks 🤖 AI’s mixed impact on jobs—white collar layoffs vs. blue-collar growth 💡 State-by-state electricity costs & debt-to-income ratios 🏭 The coming boom in factory construction and U.S. reshoring 🧠 Why the Fed may be completely misreading tariff impacts Plus, Ron takes us through: 🕰️ This Week in History – Gettysburg, the Suez Canal, Edison’s phonograph, the invention of time zones, and more. If you want to understand what REALLY might happen in 2025… this is the episode. 🎧 Watch more episodes at: www.centsofthings.com 👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro: Titanic Signal & new Fed tariff study 01:00 – Thanksgiving chatter & Arizona/Texas weather 02:00 – This Week in History: Gettysburg, Suez Canal, Edison’s phonograph 05:00 – Time zones, daylight savings & U.S. grid trivia 07:30 – The Heidi Game & TV chaos 09:00 – The Titanic Signal explained: 2–8 week market outlook 10:30 – Electricity cost by state (shocking differences) 12:00 – Household debt-to-income: Why Idaho tops the list 14:00 – Largest data centers & the coming AI-power crisis 16:00 – San Francisco Fed’s 150-year tariff study 17:00 – Why tariffs have historically reduced inflation 18:00 – Why unemployment rises after tariff hikes 20:00 – Tariff history: 1870–2025 breakdown 22:00 – Uncertainty shocks & the wealth effect 23:00 – Potential 2025 recession triggers 24:00 – White collar job losses vs. blue collar expansion 26:00 – AI’s uncertain impact on the labor market 27:00 – Why generative AI is still unreliable 28:00 – Implications for markets in 2025
TRANSCRIPT
Intro: Titanic Signal & new Fed tariff study
COT 126 ===
Jeff Kikel: [00:00:00] Hello. Cents of things. It’s Jeff and Ron here once again for another
week of the sense of things on the show today. We’ve got a lot of good stuff. Ron has got a
plethora of different statistics and things like that. One thing he’s gonna talk about is
the Titanic signal, which I am waiting with bated breath to learn a little bit about.
And so should you, I’m also gonna cover a. A chart or a, a report that came out
of the San Francisco Fed and I will just title that. What if tariffs are actually
deflationary? I’ll leave it at that. I’ll see you back here in just a second.
Jeff Kikel: Hey everybody, welcome to the show Ron. How you doing
Ron Lang: bud? How do things are good.
I can’t [00:01:00] believe next week’s Thanksgiving. All the Christmas stuff was
Thanksgiving chatter & Arizona/Texas weather
coming out before Halloween. The retailers in the supermarkets are desperate. I
Jeff Kikel: know when I’m walking around in shorts and a t-shirt and
I’m hearing Christmas music, it’s just a little weird.
Ron Lang: Growing up in the northeast without a chill in the air or whatever,
it’s been tough, but I gotta tell you.
It’s been raining chilly here in Arizona. Yeah, so it’s almost like Christmas weather.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. We’re finally getting that storm that you guys got over the last few
days. It finally wandered its way over our way. So overnight we’re supposed to get a bunch of rain.
I gotcha. I don’t think we’re gonna get a bunch of cool, but we’re gonna get a bunch of rain.
Ron Lang: Yeah. Yeah. You’re definitely gonna get rain. We’ve had more rain here
on and off for the last three weeks in a short period of time than I could ever remember,
being here. Yeah, you could take our rain and take the chill. Whatever works for you.
Jeff Kikel: We’d need something at this point, so rain.
Rain would be good. You’ve got some cool stuff for us. A whole bunch of little bits and pieces. Yeah.
Ron Lang: Let’s
Jeff Kikel: start out
Ron Lang: with this week in history. Okay. So 1777 articles
of Confederation [00:02:00] submitted to the states for ratification. Interesting. Yes.
This Week in History: Gettysburg, Suez Canal, Edison’s phonograph
1863 Lincoln travels to Gettysburg to give his famous but short speech, and I totally forgot.
Like I, I still don’t understand why this is the most, one of,
basically the most famous presidential speech in history next to FDR on December 8th,
1941. But I heard this speech was like literally like less than 10 or 15 minutes, 14 minutes.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. 14 minutes.
Ron Lang: Yeah. I don’t understand that. All right.
1869, the Suez Canal opens, and ever since people are ready to go to war.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And if you remember a few years back, ships kept running into the side of it.
Ron Lang: I gotta tell you, can you imagine being a contractor, working for the oil companies and
trying to pilot one of these tankers through there and not knowing if a fricking missile or
an underwater I could not imagine like the level of constant anxiety and danger on a daily basis.
Jeff Kikel: I know, yeah. [00:03:00] Especially when the fever pitch is high. And around Yemen
and stuff like that where they were launching off missiles at, all kinds of ships over there.
Ron Lang: All right. Scientific, I thought I love this one. The scientific
American announces Thomas Edison’s wonderful invention. The phonograph.
Yes. So everybody, they didn’t realize it was
that far back. I actually thought it was around the turn of the century,
but he was credited with inventing a lot of things and actually a lot of these things were,
he took something from somebody did and made it better a thing. Yeah. It wasn’t his other.
But anyway, it doesn’t matter. But I just thought this was interesting. ’cause if
you look at those old phonographs, the technology and the design. Basically was
the same for 50 years. Yeah. They didn’t really change much to it with the big
ear on it. It really didn’t change much until maybe the thirties or the forties.
Jeff Kikel: They just made ’em I’ve got one in my house that I got from my grandmother.
That’s it’s a [00:04:00] Victrola, and it basically, how old was it? Basically the same
tech 1920s ish. Oh. And it basically is exactly the same thing as the ones with the horn on top.
It’s just in a nice wooden cabinet.
Ron Lang: Yeah. No, that’s nice. That’s a, again, you don’t see too many of those. If it’s working,
it’s even better. Yeah. The problem is finding needles for
Jeff Kikel: the damn things.
Ron Lang: Yeah, I totally forgot about this, that there were literally thousands
of time zones in the United States because everybody, like every town had
their own time zone and the railroads were getting pod because, oh, you’re late this.
So the railroads created. The first time zones, four continental time zones in the United States,
and essentially that’s what we’ve been ever since. Yeah, and I just thought this was
interesting that this was 1883 and before that it was like complete chaos for a hundred years.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And it was funny I looked up the other day ’cause we
had the change in the time zone or the change in the clocks, daylight savings.
And it was like [00:05:00] 1923 when that was created, and Hey, I don’t
Time zones, daylight savings & U.S. grid trivia
Ron Lang: care. I’m in Arizona. We don’t change this. I know.
Jeff Kikel: It never changes for you Alaska. We’re the one of the
Ron Lang: only two, Alaska and us. That’s it.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. I just laugh because it’s like it’s for energy efficiency.
It’s nothing to do with energy efficiency anymore.
It makes no difference.
Ron Lang: I am sure in some parts of the country that may hold true if you’re depending on where
you are with the sun and whatever, but at the end of the day, gimme a break.
Jeff Kikel: I think it’s, I think it’s lazy. People not
wanting to change things, quite frankly is all it’s,
Ron Lang: I don’t know. It’s crazy.
All right. Next 1, 19 23. Garrett Morgan Patents. Oops, sorry I spelled that wrong.
The three position traffic signal. Which I’m thinking to myself, you needed a patent for
Jeff Kikel: that, but alright,
Ron Lang: let us,
Jeff Kikel: yeah. Mean anything like that. Yeah.
’cause if you’re gonna sell it, you want a patent? Yeah.
Ron Lang: 1968 TV viewers outrage as the first football game is cut off to air.
Heidi and the Raiders score two [00:06:00] touchdowns in nine seconds.
So obviously I don’t remember this, but I do remember over the years. Everybody
referring to this as the Heidi game. Yep. And this would, remember, this would never
happen in today’s world with all the sports betting never happen. No. They wait till the
Jeff Kikel: very end.
And it’s funny, I remember the, was it like the two years ago that Billy Joel did his farewell
thing on, on NBC and they cut off like the last. Segment of it, like it was a, he was right in
the middle of starting a new song and they just cut it off and went to the news. I’m like, okay,
but when a frigging football game goes an hour and a half longer than it’s supposed to, oh yeah.
Ron Lang: We’re not gonna cut that off. If you think about it because now. Remember
back then it was only one o’clock and four o’clock games? Yep. Then they added time
’cause they wanted the pre-game show for the commercials and all that other crap.
Now the games don’t go the, I mean they don’t finish in two and a half, 2 45.
They’re 3 23. [00:07:00] 3, 3 30 now. And back then there was only three channels. So it’s hey,
game’s over. Hey, we gotta do commercials ’cause people bought
time on Heidi. Heidi. Alright. 1973. Nixon, I’m not a crook, I’m not a crook.
Yes you are. I hate to tell you, I gotta tell you, I didn’t see this to many years later.
19 75, 1 flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest opens in theaters. I’ve only seen it twice. It was
a good watch once, a decent watch twice. I don’t know if I could watch it a third
The Heidi Game & TV chaos
time. Yeah. But do you know who the producer of this movie was? I have no idea. Michael Douglas,
who didn’t appear in the movie really, and he put his good friend
from acting school into this movie, and I believe it was his first movie role.
Guess who the actor is, or
Jeff Kikel: was trying to remember the other people. I remember Jack Nicholson,
but I don’t remember who else. He played the
Ron Lang: character Martini. I do remember that it’s, I’ve [00:08:00] only seen it once or
Jeff Kikel: twice, so I couldn’t
Ron Lang: tell you. Danny DeVito. Really? Yeah.
Jeff Kikel: That’s
Ron Lang: hilarious. Played because they were all psychopaths.
I, I can’t remember what his thing was, but he, it was like a buzz cut hair. Like
you would almost not recognize him. ’cause everybody thinks of Louis de Palmer from
taxi. Yes. But it’s a good flick. It’s a definitely a good flick. And of course,
that’s where Nurse Ratchet came from, right? Yes. That was from the whole thing.
A lot of people don’t realize, oh, like when you think of a mean nurse Ratchet,
that this is the movie it came from. That’s where it came from. Yeah. And
in a special election in 2003, the Terminator became the 38th governor of California. And
what a crap show all that was. Oh God yes. So anyway, that is this week in history.
In history, giving my best belts of on this week in baseball. Yeah,
lots of lots this week. So I know it’s not the best graphic, but you got the Titanic
signal and where’s the Titanic signal? Is this triggered about a month a week and a half ago,
and basically it’s saying when the [00:09:00] Titanic signal triggers, where are we?
The Titanic Signal explained: 2–8 week market outlook
1, 2, 3, all the way up to eight weeks later. What the medium and whatever,
and typically negative. And we were talking in our pregame, I believe
that we’re gonna be negative probably through Thanksgiving, maybe the first week of December,
because that’s when we’re gonna start to get retail numbers for the holiday.
And if it is weak numbers for retail I think we’re gonna be flat to negative for the rest of the year
if it’s somewhat positive. We’ll see what happens. But if if it’s somewhat positive. If Walmart’s
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, if Walmart’s numbers are any indication we
should have a pretty positive retail season.
Ron Lang: Yeah. Yeah. We’ll see where it goes. I remember, do you remember the hindenburgs signal?
Oh, I know. It worked all the way up to about 15 years ago and then it triggered four or five
more times and the market kept going up. Yeah. All that free money sloshing around is still
Jeff Kikel: profiting.
It’s the I call I want the Uriel l rubini signal, oh, Dr. It’s always gonna
Ron Lang: go
Jeff Kikel: down. It’s
Ron Lang: always going well. Him and [00:10:00] Mark Faber,
if you remember Mark Faber. Oh yeah. He sounds like a Bond villain. And he kept saying,
buy gold. Buy gold. Even though when gold was going down years ago, but, all right, here we go.
Billy was right eventually, if you bought it from like 2002. Oh look, a broken clock is
right twice a day too. I always tell people when do you remember to get new wipers for your car?
When it rains. Yes. That’s when you remember. Yeah. Not when out when the sun is shining. All
those people are eventually right at some point, but the, you might have to wait five, 10 years.
Yeah. So I thought this was interesting. This is the average cost of electricity. Wow. In
Electricity cost by state (shocking differences)
the United States, I knew California was gonna be the highest New York. That makes sense too,
with unions and a lot of the other stuff. Arizona’s pretty
high. Yeah. But obviously it does make sense for, interesting enough,
with one of the smaller populous states, but the largest landmass is Alaska.
Yeah. I thought that was interesting. Not too bad in Texas, listen don’t mess with Texas. Remember,
there are three power grids in the [00:11:00] United States. East, west,
in Texas. Texas has their own power grid. Yep.
Jeff Kikel: Someday it up both
Ron Lang: succeed from the union. I know it’s gonna happen.
We
Jeff Kikel: have our own power, so we don’t need that. And we’ve
got a coastline and. Whatever else. Yeah. You could control all the import export,
that’s for sure. Pretty much. It’s the second largest Port Gulf of America. You control the east
Ron Lang: side of Gulf. Gulf of America.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Third third or fourth largest port in the country in Houston.
Ron Lang: And here’s the, here’s what was interesting. DC which is not a state,
but they’re 19. That’s pretty high. But think about it, I don’t think they got any power
plants there. They’re probably, I bet they buy everything off of Virginia, Maryland.
Jeff Kikel: Yep.
Ron Lang: So
Jeff Kikel: and it’s interesting New Jersey in,
there’s 17 cents that’s almost doubled in the last year.
So I don’t know when this thing was done, but that’s almost doubled because the
idiot governor shut down like one of the, one of the nuclear power plants,
which I’m like, that creates no greenhouse gases at all.
And then three or [00:12:00] four of their other. Coal plants or something like that.
Household debt-to-income: Why Idaho tops the list
So yeah, we’re gonna do windmills and whatever. I pretty much windmills
’cause there’s really not much land to, to be able to do any kind of solar there.
Ron Lang: Yeah.
Jeff Kikel: Alright,
Ron Lang: next one. House income to debt ratio. I just wanted to bring
this up real quick. I got one other chart might as well around the holiday
time talking about the US I thought this was interesting where Idaho.
Has by the way, you not the hoe. That’s Idaho. Yeah. Household debt to income ratio. Idaho is
the highest. I don’t get that. I know that it’s not a huge. Populous state. No. But why the
highest debt to income ratio is there? I don’t know. Utah’s pretty big. Arizona and Colorado
pretty big. I would’ve thought it would’ve been one of the southern states, Mississippi, Alabama.
Yeah. But they’re actually on a pretty low,
maybe because they don’t have the credit to borrow. I don’t know.
Jeff Kikel: They’re the only thing I can think
with Idaho is all the. [00:13:00] All the unsuccessful Californians moved to.
Idaho ’cause they’ve had a massive influx of people from California.
Ron Lang: Yeah.
Jeff Kikel: So maybe it’s, they went there and they can’t find jobs
and they still have all the debt that they had out in California.
But also Hawaii’s the highest also that doesn’t make much sense because
you need some money to own some land there, as yeah. But there’s
not that many of those people. There’s a lot of. People who don’t make a lot
of money that interestingly enough I think I still have the chart up.
I may pull it up when I do my thing. But there, there’s a like an a chart from the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis that shows the unemployment rates and it’s interesting. The same thing.
Ron Lang: And again, if they show the chart in the
lower right corner of what it looked like in 1999, it’s not much different.
Yeah. Not much different at all. Okay. Other than Idaho getting worse, I think they’re the ones that
went from moderate to worse, but yeah. Alright. My last chart, going with the AI theme as we
[00:14:00] always do every now and then. Largest data centers in the United States and count on.
Largest data centers & the coming AI-power crisis
Doubling this probably in the next five to 10 years. I thought this was just interesting
that New York has the the largest data center in 22.9 million square feet.
Can you, I can’t imagine the electricity in the water that’s needed to run these things.
Everybody talking about why does Arizona, you can’t get all our water comes from Colorado.
We also basically so does Southern California. That’s where their water is coming from,
hence the Hoover Dam or the Boulder Dam, depending on how you wanna look
at it. That’s the Colorado water generating electricity for Vegas.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Yeah. That’s hilarious. And soon to be Texas,
we’re gonna have out in the panhandle area, close to Lubbock.
They’re gonna build the biggest data center in the
country out there. They’re in process of building that right now. So that
thing’s gonna be monstrous. I know there’s two, it’ll two data centers
Ron Lang: in Phoenix, [00:15:00] obviously. We got Taiwan Semiconductor that’s got that
humongous factory north of Phoenix, and you got Intel that’s in Gilbert.
So with just with them, they’re gonna be building more data and there’s plenty of
land for them to build. The issue is gonna be water and electricity,
Jeff Kikel: yeah. And you’ve got, right here in Austin, you’ve got Samsung’s building like.
I think another world in in Taylor, which is it was a sleepy little railroad town
up until about four or five years ago, and all of a sudden Samsung decided to do that.
And then Elon with the with his gigafactory down here, that thing is massive. It’s like over a mile
and a half long when you drive by it, it’s just unbelievable. All right. What do you got? Let me
let me show my little research project for this week here. So let me bring that up and share.
So I just happened to be, I’ve been on a little kick of going through the different Fed websites
and I was on the [00:16:00] San Francisco Fed, which I. Really had never gone on before.
San Francisco Fed’s 150-year tariff study
And it actually found a really interesting paper that just came out by two gentlemen,
Regis Barnes and a Singh, and the the paper called What Is Tariff?
What is Tariff Shock Insights from 150 Years of Tariff Policy. So these two gentlemen went in,
and they’re looking at, okay. What’s the history of tariffs been? And of course the Fed think is
usually, oh, if there’s tariffs, there’s gonna be inflation and everything else. And they actually.
Have a little bit of a different opinion and of course this is their
opinion. It’s not official fed policy, but I like their thought process. 2025,
15% jump in tariffs might cool inflation, but also jobs. Typically what has happened,
so if you look at history for the last 150 years, when there is a tariff hike.
Typically what happens is you see lower inflation and higher unemployment as a [00:17:00] result
Why tariffs have historically reduced inflation
of that. So not what the Fed thinks, not what everybody says, oh, we’re gonna have all this
inflation. It’s the exact opposite that has tended to happen in history. So when they looked at it,
their analysis was a five percentage point increase in average tariffs.
CPI tends to fall one to two percentage points and unemployment rises a half to one percentage point,
and that typically peaks one to two years after those tariffs hit. So it acts almost
like when the Fed raises interest rates. It does something very similar there. And
so they, they say it’s not like a classic push type inflation shock.
It’s more of an uncertainty shock that happens. One of the worst examples of this,
and typically in the, in our long-term histories, if you look back into the 1890s
we had the worst recession or we had the worst depression that we ever had. Now we thought,
everybody thinks the 1930s, but it was much, much worse [00:18:00] in the 1890s.
Why unemployment rises after tariff hikes
And you had. Two different thought processes. Democrats said,
we don’t want tariffs at all. We’re gonna cut ’em. And Republicans said,
we want tariffs. ’cause we wanna have protectionism. Both of their policies
sucked. During that time period because in 1893 to 1897, we had the worst depression in US history.
When Democrats were in charge 1894 they cut tariffs. We had. Massive inflation. I got
these wrong actually. They’re, they need to be shoved down, but massive inflation,
which put the mar yeah. Put the economy in the, on the breaks. And then Republicans took power
in 1897 and they said, we’re raising tariffs higher than they ever had been in history.
Same. Except then all of a sudden we had high inflation and we had tons of layoffs,
caused all kinds of hassles until the market calmed down and inflation went down a few years
later. So yeah, it was one of those things [00:19:00] where. It was bad policy period.
And when you look at where tariff rates were back then, here’s where tariff rates were.
If you look back to, this is probably the 1870s post Civil War,
tariffs went up massively because we were trying to pay off the Civil War. Plus you
had the industrial revolution here in the country. And there were massively
protectionists. So going through this, you had multiple times where it went up, it went down.
This was a D, a Democratic. Organ or a Democratic administration. Then the Republicans came back in,
then it went down again. Then the Republicans came in again with the McKinley Act at the end
of the 19 hundreds, which was even higher tariffs. Then it dropped a little bit. Then it went back
up a little bit with the end of McKinley, and then Teddy Roosevelt came in and he was like.
I don’t even wanna play this game. I’m just gonna focus on regulations and focus on,
trust [00:20:00] busting and all that. So he didn’t do much. Then you have Wilson coming in
Tariff history: 1870–2025 breakdown
World War II or World War I tariff rates went to the lowest that they had been in, almost 50 years.
Then 1920s, you had a series of just. Absolutely stupid tariffs going up.
And then from that peak point in the late thirties all the way through,
it was basically at the time when Roosevelt came in, it went down down. And then we
went through a series where it just was in a gradual decline over time.
2025 biggest one year jump since the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Disaster,
which was right here where the idiots decided to just go crazy with this and
had 60% tariffs on everything. So in the modern eras, if you look at it from 1948 through now,
tariffs really have been on a slow downward run except [00:21:00] for.
In the middle of the 1970s there was this big spike up kind of Ford early Carter,
big spike up. And if you look back now towards,
I think that was during the oil embargo. Yeah, it was the oil embargo and then there was all
kinds of other little goofy tariffs that went on. You saw, once again, big spike up.
Big spike up in unemployment. Inflation went down during that same time period,
from a, it went down and then it spiked right back up because Carter came in and
reduced tariffs massively. And then all of a sudden we had this huge
runup because of a lot of different things, but huge runup in inflation.
Jobs stabilized there for a while and then, throughout Reagan’s presidency.
They didn’t really change much, just kinda left them where they were. They
didn’t really monkey with them at all. Then we roll into the late nineties,
into the two thousands. We were at the lowest tariffs we had ever been in history.
Inflation stayed pretty low. Unemployment stayed pretty
level because there weren’t [00:22:00] any major changes or spikes, tiny changes are,
Uncertainty shocks & the wealth effect
okay, big changes, not necessarily always a good thing. Why does inflation fall? Really
two big mechanisms are what the authors of this thing put. Uncertainty, shock.
So trade, war fears stock volatility spikes, businesses and consumers freeze. I think we saw
some of this earlier in the year. When there was just uncertainty of, okay, where are these things
all at? Now we’re starting to find some stability in there and not the shock. We might not see as
much of the craziness, but there’s an uncertainty effect and a wealth effect, and this is really the
weird part is typically you have that uncertainty shock, and then the stock market gets blasted.
The stock markets continued to go up amongst all this stuff,
that could be an ongoing thing. And I think it goes back to what you talked
about last week on the show that, we’ve had, what, three years of double digits?
Ron Lang: If we stay at this [00:23:00] level, plus or minus for the rest of the year, it’ll be
Potential 2025 recession triggers
three straight years of double digit gains, which has only happened four times in the last 75 years.
Three of those times between 95 and 99. Okay.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Which that, that’s not necessarily a good thing. And were,
have we ever had four years in a row of double digits or no.
Ron Lang: Again, 95 to 99 in a rolling three year period. We did, so 95 to 99, we were double digit
every year. And then there was only one other time prior to that, that we did three years in a row.
And this would be the fifth time? Yeah. 75 years. Okay we’ll, we shall see, right? Bottom line for
2025. It’s likely with tariffs. If this, if these guys’ hypothesis is correct, it’s likely going
to be dis disinflationary or disinflationary which head or helps the Fed fight inflation.
Jeff Kikel: Once again, the Fed believes that because of tariffs we’re gonna have,
rampant inflation. [00:24:00] They could be completely wrong on this and
White collar job losses vs. blue collar expansion
I think that the problem is they tend to have that fed think of,
there’s only one way to look at this but it could also be recessionary and see higher unemployment.
And slower growth. Which kind of flips the 2018 to 2019. Now the guys said,
this, their best empirical evidence that they have right now. It is a working paper,
not an official fed view. I think what potentially could happen in the employment
situation is. We could see a spike in white collar unemployment due to the adoption of ai.
As a component of that, we’ve seen that with with kind of the middle
management of Amazon got decimated. I think they laid off 30 or 40,000 people
that were in the middle management, and a lot of that is gonna be replaced or.
Streamlined with AI while we see an increase in blue collar employment.
’cause there’s a lot of investment [00:25:00] coming into building of factories, building a
lot of different things, power plants, everything else. So is that white collar unemployment gonna
be offset by the blue collar unemployment? And if that does, where are your investors? Are your
investors? More of the white collar people who are making more money, or is it gonna be that
the blue collar investors or the blue collar people start to invest more in the market?
And it offsets that. If we see a down or decline in the stock market,
that’s where that wealth effect thing starts to, to come into the picture. What are your thoughts?
Ron Lang: I think the whole AI thing is completely undetermined.
How it may or may not affect. I hear people that are quote unquote experts.
I just nod my head because they don’t know. Yeah. Look, there,
there are definitely some things that AI will help out. I think autonomous driving and that,
I think is gonna have more [00:26:00] of an effect than just AI doing general
AI’s uncertain impact on the labor market
work. I think it’s gonna eliminate most of coding, for programming already has.
We’ve already seen that. Yeah. It already has and I, and I believe, I’m hoping in healthcare,
it helps figure out how to, come up with drugs or whatever to solve disease. I, but
my point is like somebody’s gonna a third of white collar jobs are gonna,
you don’t know. You don’t know, you don’t know.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And companies, you still, even though you have ai, I am sorry,
you still have to have a human kind of checking it, ’cause even today I was using Grok to analyze
this a little bit more in detail and, build some slides for me and I’m reading it. I, and
I had read the article and I’m like, no, you completely misinterpreted what was in there.
‘Cause there, whatever bias it has from whatever sources, it pulls from, it was,
you still have to have somebody that’s checking
the information. ‘Cause it’s not that good. And I hate to tell Google this,
Google’s [00:27:00] up like $198 today. It went up from 178 yesterday. Their Gemini three sucks.
Why generative AI is still unreliable
Yeah. It sucks beyond belief. Oh, it’s been, I thought it was getting
Ron Lang: good reviews.
Jeff Kikel: Oh no. It just launched yesterday and I’m like,
I went on to it this morning and I put. This same, this article into,
to Grok and I put the same article into, to Google and I think the Google one I just noticed.
I closed the thing down. It was still spinning. So I don’t know if it’s just
that they’re getting hit by a bunch of people on it this morning or whatever. Okay. But it’s
oodles. Is all I can say. Alright. Alright. And it’d been my opinion of the other stuff I heard.
Ron Lang: I was reading an article yesterday about it.
Yeah. Which is why it popped over 300. I don’t know. Wow. See,
Jeff Kikel: who knows. That’s all I got for the day. Good stuff. Oops. Yeah,
it’s just, I think it, it’s interesting and I think, it made me rethink, [00:28:00] okay,
Implications for markets in 2025
what could we see this next year? I think there’s so many moving parts with the economy
when it comes to the tax cuts and a lot of the investment in the country and everything else.
Once again, yes, we might have tariffs and this. This, could come to be,
or it could be complete moot and a different point. But I wanted to
present that ’cause I thought it was an interesting article. I’m starting
to look at a lot of the different feds ’cause they put out some good stuff.
I don’t know what they smoke down in Atlanta,
but it they’re on a whole different wavelength down there.
Ron Lang: I agree. I agree.
Jeff Kikel: All right, man. Thanks folks for joining us. Make sure that you subscribe to
the channel and I’d love to hear your thoughts on some of this stuff. So give
us a comment and I will make sure I put a link to that article inside the show notes.
So if you need it you can pull it up. I will say it’s a little bit, wordy, but but it’s
good information. So thanks a lot, and we’ll see you guys back here the very next [00:29:00] time.