COT 151 === Jeff Kikel: [00:00:00] everybody. It’s  Jeff and Ron once again with The Cents   of Things. On today’s show we’ve got of  course, our week in history. Ron’s got  

a fun call that he made earlier in  the year that he’s gonna report on,   and he’s got some information on M&A. We had  a bunch of economic data that came out this  

morning that I’m gonna cover from Econoday  everything from GDP to PCE to M-O-U-S-E.

And we’ll go over all that today so stay  tuned. We’ll be right back in just a second

Jeff Kikel: Everybody, welcome to the  show. Ron, how are you, my friend?

Ron Lang: Good morning. ~Well, ~AI keeps  chugging along. ~Uh, ~SpaceX IPO is done,   and now we got all the storage and  everything else. ~You know, ~it’s   amazing. People were talking about,  ~you know, ~”Oh, yeah, the…

~Well, ~we always needed storage.”  ~Well, ~those stocks did barely   anything- [00:01:00] For a long time … for the  prior two or three years. Yeah. Why more so in  

the last three to six months, I have no idea. But  Micron, that was a… ~You know, ~10 years ago,  

that was a 10, $15 stock, and- Yep … if it went  up two bucks, it was like, “Hey, you know what?” Yet they had a great qu- ~I mean,  ~it’s insane now. Yeah. It’s up   280% ~in, ~in less than a year or  year to date or something like that.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Ron Lang: It’s just crazy.

Jeff Kikel: ~Well, ~and ~I mean, ~I… What makes  me laugh, ~I,~ I’ve gotten to the point I don’t   even watch the market during the day sometimes  because two days ago the market was down massively  

because, oh, the AI trade’s all over, and then  Micron has a great quarter, oh my God, AI is back.

And it’s ~like, you know, I, ~I’d really like to   invest in Prozac because I think the  market needs it more than anything.

Ron Lang: Yeah, but you know what? The  financial media and all the websites,   ~they,~ they need to talk about something, so it’s  whatever’s trending. And- Of course … ~or, ~or   if they don’t know what to talk about,  ~the,~ the default fallback is talk about AI.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. ~Well, ~remember when we were  growing up in this business too, it was always   [00:02:00] if the market went down, the answer  was it’s profit-taking.” ~Well, ~no kidding. It’s-

Ron Lang: ~Well, ~I like the one- … people  are sharing … where’s the money gonna come   from? ~Uh, well, ~that’s why this is going down  because people are raising money, g- gonna…” You don’t know that. Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: ~Right? ~And they’re  talking about all this money on   the sideline. ~Well, ~it’s gotta go  somewhere. ~Well, ~maybe that’s where   it’s going. ~I, ~I just- Yeah … ~uh,  I, ~I can’t stand listening to these   people that they think they know where the  shift of money is going. You don’t know.

Jeff Kikel: You have no clue.

Ron Lang: You do- yeah. Yeah. You have no  idea. So they’re talking about, ~like,~ with   Anthropic and OpenAI, ~well,~ where’s  that money gonna come from? ~Uh, ~they’re  

gonna… People are gonna have to sell  something. No, maybe they just have   other cash- Yeah … that they’re gonna  put into it. ~You, ~you don’t know. That Jeff Kikel: they have money on the side.

Yeah, and ~I mean, you know, ~once again,  ~and,~ and ~I, ~I think we’re already seeing   ~the, ~the, ~you know, ~guilt come off the lily a  little bit with SpaceX. ~You know, ~everybody’s,  

“Oh my God, we have to pile into this  trade,” and then things gotten just   pounded for, ~you know, ~a week now, where, ~you  know, ~it’s ~like, ~okay, ~it,~ it’s, you…

It is so far overblown. It was so far overblown  when it started. [00:03:00] It’s gonna come   crashing back down to some point. And ~I mean, ~we  looked at that a couple weeks ago. ~If you, ~if  

you didn’t see the show, watch about two weeks  back when Ron went through the history of a lot   of these IPOs, and really big well-known IPOs,  not just, ~you know, ~junk that’s coming out.

Y- you gotta watch these things. And  ~I mean, ~as much as I love Anthropic   and ~I, ~I run a big chunk of my business  on Anthro- or, on Claude- It’s still,  

I think it’s gonna be overblown and  it’ll ~kind of ~come crashing back down,   and then eventually there’ll be an  opportunity I think to buy it then Ron Lang: ~Well, ~just think Jeff Kikel: about it.

Ron Lang: SpaceX is down  over 30% from its high. Yeah. Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: ~So. ~ Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: I hear you. All right, let’s get into  it. So there were some interesting things in   this week in history. ~Um- ~Get this thing out  here. All right, here we go. So Congress passes  

the Mann Act in 1910, curb- aiming to curb sex  trafficking. Okay. I thought that was interesting. I’d heard of the Mann Act. I  didn’t know when it was done.

Jeff Kikel: I, yeah, I didn’t realize there was   that much sex trafficking going on  in the 1910s, [00:04:00] but okay.

Ron Lang: Oh, I’m sure it was much worse. ~I  mean, ~think about- I bet you … ~uh, ~all the   crap that was going on during the building of the  Transcontinental Railroad. They were bringing- Yep

women over from A, ~you know, ~Europe- From  China … and Asia. Yeah. And then they were   dying. They didn’t even live here six months.  ~I, ~I don’t even- Yeah … wanna talk about  

it. Terrible. 1941, ~FDR,~ FDR signs order  banning discrimination in defense industry   against- Interesting … ethnicity and  race. I thought that was interesting.

I had- That’s- … no idea. I had Jeff Kikel: no clue. ~I don’t, ~I don’t  think I’ve ever heard that, ~so. ~ Ron Lang: Nope. 1941, British intelligence breaks  German Enigma- Cool … used on the Eastern Front.  

~I, ~I gotta tell you, I wasn’t crazy about that  movie they did a few years ago. I thought it was   very Hollywood, but- Yeah … there’s a really  good book called, I think it’s called Hut Eight.

~Um- ~Okay … ~uh, ~excellent. Excellent.  ~I mean, I, ~I love all that analytical   stuff. I think it’s called Hut Eight,  and if you go- ~Mm-hmm ~… over it,  

say, at Bletchley, ~uh,~ they- Yeah  … will actually show you the original   machine. ~I mean, ~it looks like one of those  UNIVAC computers from the ’50s. ~I mean, ~it-

Jeff Kikel: ~Well, ~it’s got- ~I, ~I mean- like wires [00:05:00] and, ~you know,  ~it’s just- It looks like a bunch Ron Lang: of dials …

Jeff Kikel: yeah, it’s dials and wires and  everything. Yeah, it’s ~like ~one side of it’s   all dials and all that, and you turn around  the backside and it’s just, ~like,~ an open  

thing with all these wires plugged into all  these different things. And yeah, it’s, it Ron Lang: was- Looks like an  oversized tube TV from, ~like,~ Jeff Kikel: 50 Ron Lang: years Jeff Kikel: ago

it was pretty impressive. But  ~I mean, ~the other fact is   how complicated that Enigma machine  really was in something very compact.

Ron Lang: ~Well, ~to think how brilliant  the people were ~or, ~or to, that did that,   they had no basis to go on, ~like,~  “Oh, this is how they did it 10…”   ~No, no, ~no. Yeah. This was brand-new,  ~uh, ~e- encryption code breaking.

Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: 1944, ~FDR,~ FDR signs the GI Bill- Jeff Kikel: Interesting …

Ron Lang: to help, ~uh,~ basically military people  after their military service get established out  

there for education. I thought the big one  here was health benefits- ~Mm ~… things   like that. I thought that was, ~uh,~ very  interesting. I was actually reading- I Jeff Kikel: didn’t realize-

up- … it was in ’44. I thought  it was after the war, but yeah,   I guess he was the one that  signed it, and he was went Ron Lang: alive much longer. And I still don’t  understand [00:06:00] the Korean War. Even after  

all these years and watching all the episodes  of MASH- Yeah … I still don’t understand why   we truly got into the… ~I, ~I, look,  we, I know about Vietnam War, right?

But- I still don’t understand the  Korean War. ~Uh, ~it doesn’t make a lot Jeff Kikel: of sense to me ~I, ~I don’t  think really anybody understands it,   because it basically was just  this gigantic stalemate. ~Uh,   ~the interesting thing is the war has  never ended. It’s just been in a truce.

Ron Lang: ~Well, ~they still  got the DMZ there, I mean- Yeah and everything else, ~so. ~ Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: 1965, Mr. Tambourine Man ~is  released, ~is released by The Byrds. Now,   I know this. Most people should know  this. Who originally wrote the song?

Jeff Kikel: His only number one  song ~Um, ~I don’t know. That, that- Ron Lang: Bob Dylan. Jeff Kikel: Really? Interesting.

Ron Lang: And rather ironically, with  all of the songs that Bob Dylan wrote- Jeff Kikel: He’s Ron Lang: never had a-

~this song, ~this song redone by Mis- by  The Birds was the only number one song by  

him. Ra- and rather ironically- That is shocking  to me … if you listen to his [00:07:00] version,   it is- Yeah … very different than what Roger  McGuinn and The Birds did with Mr. Tambourine Man.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. ‘ Ron Lang: Cause he used a 12-string acoustic,   and Bob Dylan used a six-string,  but it was in a different cadence. If you listen to it, two very different songs.

Jeff Kikel: Anything Bob Dylan does  is very different from everybody else.

Ron Lang: Yeah. ~Well, ~the other thing  too is, one of The Monkees biggest hits   was Daydream Believer. ~Uh-huh.  ~Do you know who wrote that song?

Jeff Kikel: Shit, I do. ~I, ~I  can’t think of the name, though. Ron Lang: Neil Diamond.

Jeff Kikel: Really? And Ron Lang: if you’ve heard  Neil Diamond’s version of it,   it’s very different than The Monkees  version, so there you go. All right,  

little bit of rock history. 1972,  Haldeman, in a very smart decision,   encourages Nixon on tape to thwart FBI inquiry  into Watergate, and so the downfall begins.

Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: I wonder, if they actually came  out in the beginning, ~uh,~ and didn’t cover   up, ~uh,~ would he have just been censured and  it would’ve been swept under the [00:08:00] rug?

~Uh, ~I thought that would’ve been interesting.  Yeah, I- ‘Cause from what I understand,   Nixon knew about… He didn’t  order it- ~Mm ~… but he knew  

about it after the fact. Yep. So  he coulda basically have just, you Jeff Kikel: know- He could’ve denied  it and said I found out about it, Ron Lang: and I told them.” Yeah.  I wonder if he would’ve just come   out and it woulda just gotten swept.

I don’t know.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. But ~it,  ~it’s funny, ~I,~ I read,   ~uh,~ Clint, ~uh,~ God, what is his name? ~Um- ~ Ron Lang: Gordy Jeff Kikel: Liddy? ~Uh, no, ~no. So  Clint, ~uh,~ Howard, I think it was,  

who’s, ~uh,~ he was a, ~uh,~ he was basically   on the presidential protection, ~um,~ for  five presidents. Oh, yeah, he was the one Ron Lang: that jumped on  the limousine when Kennedy Jeff Kikel: got shot.

Yeah. Yeah, exactly. He’s the one that put-  He just died a couple years ago. ~Yeah,   ~yeah. He’s the one that puts Mis-  Kennedy back in Clint Hill, I think his Ron Lang: name was.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, Clint Hill. Yeah. ~And,  ~and five presidents, but it’s funny when   you hear him talk about Nixon, how much he  really disliked Nixon. ~Uh, ~you could…

And all of them did. They just  really could not stand him,   ’cause he was such a paranoid  little freak that, ~uh- ~ Ron Lang: ~Well, ~the funny thing was, and  we can get off of this, they didn’t have to  

do the bugging of the Democratic National  Committee in ’72. He [00:09:00] already   had the poll to- Yep … to basically… And  he ended up winning in ’72 in a landslide.

By a lot, yeah. He didn’t need  to bug to gain any information,   but that’s- Yep … how paranoid he was. Jeff Kikel: Yep, absolutely.

Ron Lang: All right. ~Uh, ~hold on.  Okay, here we go. 1974, pack of chewing   gum becomes first ever item scanned with  a- Interesting … UPC code. Interesting.

Jeff Kikel: Mark it.

Ron Lang: I read this, I’m like,  “Oh, I gotta put this in there.” Jeff Kikel: It’s gotta be there.

Ron Lang: But anyway, that was only 52 years ago,  and- I know … think about it now that if you   didn’t have a barcode, you had to price everything  out, they had to put everything in. Now they   just… Can you imagine how long it would take  at a supermarket now with a full basket of goods?

Jeff Kikel: ~I, ~I know how long it takes  going to, ~uh,~ Hobby Lobby with my wife,   because they do not use UPC codes at all.

Oh. ~They, ~they key every damn  thing in, and it takes forever- Ron Lang: Interesting … to Jeff Kikel: get out of there.

Ron Lang: There you go. Pack  of chewing gum. All right.   1982, [00:10:00] John Hinckley Jr.- ~Mm-hmm ~…  who attempted to assassinate Ronald Reagan, found   not guilty, obviously, by, ~uh,~ by insanity. He  actually just got released a couple of years ago.

Yeah. A lot of people don’t realize that. ~Um,  ~just out of curiosity, do you know his reason   that he gave for attempt- for basically  wanting to assassinate Ronald Reagan?

Jeff Kikel: ~Well, ~ Ron Lang: he wanted, yeah, he wanted  to impress, ~uh- ~He wanted to impress   somebody. Do you remember who it was? Yeah. Jeff Kikel: ~Um, ~what’s her  face? ~Uh, ~the- An actress. Yes. ~I, ~I’m fa- I, can picture… Jodie Foster.

Ron Lang: There you go. My man.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Yeah, and it was  a, and it was an interesting thing,   because he actually was in a  college class with her, ~uh- ~No, he Ron Lang: wasn’t … that’s where he- ~No,  no, ~no. She was- Oh … going to Princeton,  

and she, he found out what dorm and what floor he  was, she was on, and she was, he was calling the   payphone and talking to her, and she couldn’t  take, ’cause she couldn’t tell, you know-

Jeff Kikel: But I think, ~uh,~ I think  he was also, ~like,~ auditing courses   that she was in, too, if I remember correctly.

Ron Lang: Yeah. Yeah, ~he didn’t, ~he didn’t  go to Princeton, my man. Yeah. I think he was   living in Hawaii, if I remember correctly,  because they had kinda traced his steps  

when he [00:11:00] went to DC. Yeah. Yeah. 1992,  mafia… Oops, sorry. Yep. That should be boss,   not box. Excuse me. Yeah. John Gotti,  the Teflon Don, was sentenced to life.

~Um- ~Oh, okay … but I gotta tell you, I’ve  seen so many documentaries about how they got   him. It was brilliant. Ah. ~I mean, they,  ~they were look, working on this for years,  

and I’m, ~well,~ I’m not gonna…  There’s no time to get into it now,   but there’s a couple of good ones on  Netflix about how creative the FBI got. Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: 1993- ~Well, ~ Jeff Kikel: he is in a box now,  so that, that makes sense …

Ron Lang: No, that’s true. Yeah. ~Uh, ~Lorena  Bobbitt maims her husband- Oh … with a   kitchen knife. Now, ~here,~ here’s a quick  funny story ~for, ~for the people that,  

that don’t care about, ~uh,~ crazy trivia.  So you know how, ~like, uh, ~the porn   industry always comes up with funny  names, like The Devil Wears Prada?

Yep. They came up with one called The  Devil Wears Nada. So rather ironically,  

John Wayne Bobbitt, right? He couldn’t get a  job. He couldn’t sustain a career. So actually,  

he was offered to do ~a, ~a porn [00:12:00]  movie- And people, of course, have got,   “I’ve got to see this,” right? The name of that  movie was ~Something ~Something: The Final Cut.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: I don’t remember the name or whatever,  and I- Wow … just forgot about it. They   always come up with something good. All  right, moving on. 2009, unfortunately,  

Michael Jackson dies at age 50. Propofol and  whatever the hell else he’d ~been, ~been taking   for years. Yeah. And those doctors went  to jail. ~Th- ~th- that’s just ridiculous.

And Jeff Kikel: they deserve to, yes.

Ron Lang: Yeah. 2013, w- I forgot. Ah. I  didn’t- I don’t remember this. Wallenda- This Jeff Kikel: is your second  Wallenda in two weeks, man.

Ron Lang: Yeah, I know. ~That, ~that was funny,   right? The other one too that we had. Wallenda  crosses the Little Grand Canyon on a high wire. Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: And okay, Jeff Kikel: so- Two Wallendas in a week, man Ron Lang: I’m just saying, I called it, folks.  During the war, sometime in March or even early  

April, I had said that Saudi Ara- to avoid the  Strait of Hormuz, what did I say? Saudi Arabia   should do [00:13:00] something. Do you remember  what- ~Mm-hmm ~… I said Saudi Arabia should do?

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, they should pop a pipeline  and just bypass the whole dang thing. Ron Lang: Build their own Panama Canal. Jeff Kikel: Yep, okay. ~Well, ~that too.

Ron Lang: So Brian Sullivan from CNBC, who I  love, basically suggested the same damn thing. Jeff Kikel: Ah. Why not?

Ron Lang: I, why not? Yeah.  ~Well, ~first of all, I think,   I don’t think the other Middle Eastern countries,  ’cause I think Iran holds a little too much power   with that Strait of Hormuz, and we know  ~this, ~this deal is not gonna hold up.

Whether it’s now, six months or six years from  now, it’s not gonna hold up. And Saudi Arabia,   the smartest thing they would do  is do something across that strait,  

give up the- ~Mm-hmm ~… balance of that  land ~and, ~and avoid a- all the other BS.

Jeff Kikel: ~Well, ~the only problem  is it’s not their land to give up,   ~it’s,~ it’s United Arab Emirates and, ~uh,~  Oman that would have to give up in this case.

Ron Lang: Yeah, but my point is think about the   technology they [00:14:00] had 100, 120  years ago to build the Panama Canal. Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Ron Lang: It wouldn’t take, ~uh,~ long.

Jeff Kikel: Oh, no, it wouldn’t take  long at all, and it’s not near as long. Ron Lang: Couple years.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Maybe. Literally.  Yeah. Yeah. ~I mean, ~I’d… Honestly,   it’s what I would do. ~I mean, and,  ~and I think Oman would agree with that.

~I mean, ~there’s not really much there,  ~you know, ~and ~they could, ~they could   get a cut on it. They’re tr- they’re already  trying to figure out a way to, to collude with  

Iran on this whole thing anyhow, so why not  give up a little bit of territory, put that   in there, ~you know, ~UAE ~and, ~and Oman make  some money on it and- ~I mean, ~that would com- you bypass this whole issue. Yeah.

Ron Lang: That would completely make  Iran’s power, ~uh,~ renderless. I   mean- Completely … it would render them  powerless- Yeah … because a- at this point,  

it’s just like, all right, ~well,~ you could  choose which way you wanna go. Yeah. I don’t   know. Yeah. I just thought it was interesting  this was put out there, ’cause I imagine- Jeff Kikel: Honestly, I think they should do  it, ~and,~ and the other side of the coin,  

~I mean, ~I’d run pipelines across, ~you  know, ~across the desert in Saudi Arabia   and dump it out below there, ~you  know, ~where their Saudi territory   is out in the Gulf of Oman ~Uh, ~just  [00:15:00] build a facility there.

They’ve got the money Ron Lang: I agree. All right. And  then the last one I had talked about,   and th- this is not to get political, but,  ~you know, ~the prior administration frowned  

on a lot of M&A and killed a lot of M&A-  ~Mm ~… especially in the biotech space,   which was one of my big themes from October-  Yeah … November of ’24 to current.

And by the way, the IBB, the mega and large cap  biotech just hit an all-time high yesterday,   and I believe today too. ~Mm. ~Yeah. ~So,  uh, ~we’re seeing… And I’m… This is not  

a biotech M&A chart- ~Mm ~… but you can just  see here that if you just look from a year ago,   where the deal counts are, ~you  know, ~across different sectors.

~Um- ~so if we’re looking at this, ~I mean, ~I’m  looking at healthcare and biotech to continue to   tick up. ~Um, ~I thought finance was interesting  because we all know that the, ~uh,~ the small and  

the regional banks always get eaten up over time.  ~Mm. Um, ~I just find this just to be incredible   that there are 750 to 800 deals in a period  of t- [00:16:00] I just think that’s amazing.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. ~Well, ~but ~I mean, ~you  figure, eh, most of these small to mid-sized   banks, ~I mean, ~I know a lot of mid… I know a  lot of senior bankers at a lot of these mid-sized  

bank. It’s what they’re created for, ~you know?  ~It… ~They’re, ~they’re not created to be ~you   know, ~we wanna be the community bank forever.”  The people that start these things ~are, ~are…

That’s their exit plan, is we’re gonna  build it big enough that somebody’s gonna   come in and acquire us. ~That, ~that’s  their exit, and that’s how they do it

Ron Lang: ~Right. ~And it’s not just,  as you can see on the top chart there,   it’s not just the deal volume, it’s the-  ~Mm ~… deal value- Yeah … that are   just continue, that will just continue to tick up.

And with all… With, ~you know…  ~Look, ~uh,~ SpaceX just did it,   right? What did they do the day after  or the- or ~two- ~two- two trading days  

after they went public? They immediately went  out- ~Mm ~… and bought a company. They made   a deal. Yeah. They’re gonna make more. Anthropic  and OpenAI have to do the exact same thing- Yeah

if they wanna continue to grow,  because not every- now you can’t   just grow organically. You’ve gotta grow  by eating up [00:17:00] competition.

Jeff Kikel: That’s precisely  correct. Interestingly enough,   I like that, ~uh,~ the one at the top of the  chart there. ~I mean, ~it’s not the largest,  

but the deal count in commercial services ~and,  ~and the amount of M&A going on in that area is Ron Lang: really intriguing.

Yeah. I don’t know exactly ~what, ~what  makes up commercial services. ~Um- ~ Jeff Kikel: ~Well, ~that’s gonna be all your  plumbing and, ~you know, ~electrical and  

stuff like that. So I think ~that’s, ~that’s  really intriguing to me that you’re seeing so   much consolidation there. But you- I think  it’s smart consolidation because you can…

~You know, with, ~with… You get bigger  projects if you can have a bigger company.

Ron Lang: Yeah. But not only that, too, but  if you’re… If all these deals are going   down… ~I mean, ~take a look at this, right?  3,761 deals in a year. Yeah. ~I mean, ~this is why  

it’s no longer th- ~you know, ~the W- the Wilshire  5000. There’s really only, ~like,~ 3,200- ~Mm~ or 3,300 stocks. Yeah. ~Uh, ~so  ~I just find, ~I just find it  

interesting, ~kind of ~the world  we live in. ~And, ~and obviously   M&A is what also drives the market higher  because it drives the values higher, too.

Jeff Kikel: Absolutely. Ron Lang: All right, what do you got?

Jeff Kikel: Let me key this thing up. So a little   bit of, ~uh,~ [00:18:00] economic  data for this week I thought was…

Whoa, hello. Stopped here. Tried to click  on something and it went nutso on me. All  

right, ~so, um, ~taking a look at the  EconoDay for this week. ~You know, ~I   think ~it’s, ~it’s interesting  and intriguing to me- ~Uh, ~ Ron Lang: ~your, ~your screen’s not showing  yet. Oh, there it is. Okay. Okay, good.

Jeff Kikel: All right. So interesting and   intriguing to me to see a little  bit of what’s been going on in the

Let me move this thing out of the  way There we go. A little share Ron Lang: thing Durable good orders, we got it.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, all ~right. Um, so, you know,  ~you look at, y- you’re trying to figure out,   okay, where’s the economy going? How has  the war and oil and everything affected   the market? ~So, you know, ~I think there’s some  good and there’s some bad in ~this, ~this report.

I think durable goods orders coming out today.  Now, part of this is, and I was looking down here,  

that they said volatile aircraft orders, which  makes sense. ~Um, ~I think you’ve got a lot   of craziness going on in the airline industry,  especially with ~the, ~the loss [00:19:00] of,   ~uh, you know, uh, ~what would be a sort of major  player, the worst airline I’ve ever been on.

But, ~uh,~ Spirit Airlines, ~um, you know,  I mean, ~that’s a pretty major player with   actually a lot of relatively new planes that are  gonna have to get absorbed somewhere. They’re  

not just gonna be sitting. ~So, you know, ~I  think, yes, this kinda makes sense, but it’s   a … ~I mean, ~that’s a pretty big move from  the prior one that was positive 7.9% down 4.5.

So something to look at. I think it’s just,  it’s ~kind of ~the scatter effect down from   there. ~Um, you know, ~one thing that  we’ve been covering for a while has been  

new home sales. ~You know, ~I got a good  friend that I do a podcast with here in   Austin that we talk about the real estate  market and finance and stuff like that.

And, ~you know, I mean, ~having conversations  with him, and he’s a very, ~you know, ~productive   realtor, and he’s, ~you know, ~he’s  ~kind of ~in shell shock right now  

with the way the market has been. ~You  know, ~we’re seeing new s- home sales,   they’ve continued to go ~down, ~down.  And, ~you know, ~people are just   not [00:20:00] wanting to make decisions  right now, and that’s what he’s seeing.

~You know, ~they don’t wanna put their mark- or  they don’t wanna put their house on the market,   and they don’t wanna buy a new house  because they’re just concerned about  

what’s going on in the economy and  everything else. And of course,   ~you know, ~our media just  bludgeoning it to death every day,  

both financial and regular media, doesn’t  help, ~you know, ~when it comes to that But Ron Lang: also interest rates  are still too damn high.

Jeff Kikel: They are. Yeah, ~I mean, ~interest  rates are very high and- They gotta go sub Ron Lang: 5.5 in order for there to be a mini  boom. Yeah. Under 6 for there to be some momentum.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And ~I mean, you know, ~I think   the first thing that you’re gonna  see is if we get any help there,   the first thing you’re gonna see is some major  refinances for the people that did have to move.

Yes, Ron Lang: absolutely.

Jeff Kikel: That’s, you know- That’s 5.5 …  that’s where you’re gonna see the move. Yeah,   you’re gonna see the move. ~And, ~and, ~you  know, ~talking, ~I,~ I’ve had meetings this   week not only with my friend that  does that, but I’ve got a really   good friend that’s got a mortgage company,  and ~I mean, ~he’s saying the same thing.

~He goes, ~he goes, “I had anticipated doing…”  I think he did, ~like,~ 75 deals last year,   and he [00:21:00] figured he was gonna double  it this year, and he’s ~like, ~”I’m gonna be  

lucky to just match last year’s number at this  point,” because of ~the, ~the deal volume is  

just down so much. Now here’s for the good.  So PMI, ~um,~ continues to be high- Fantastic

and actually rising on a regular basis here. So  we were p- ~you know, ~51 before. Anything over  

50 means we’re in a growth phase, and we’re  at 52 as of this. ~Um, ~interestingly enough,  

after now six, seven months, we finally caught  up from the government shutdown. So I didn’t find   any data that’s been delayed because of the  government shutdown, ~um,~ after six months.

GDP this morning I think shocked a lot of people  ’cause they were expecting it, it to be down,   and it blew out the range, up 2.1%.  ~Um, ~so much, much, much better.

Ron Lang: That’s a hell of a range, 1.3 to 2.5. I Jeff Kikel: mean- Oh, I know.  ~They, ~they’ll put the… Yeah,   certain things they’ll have a tight range. Other  ones are like, [00:22:00] “We have no idea.”

And any time we get in these type of situations,   you’ll see the economists just open this thing  up like a Mack truck so they can all say yeah,  

it was within the range.” ~Uh, ~but that’s a huge  range. And interestingly enough, the annual rate  

on personal consumption expenditures within the  GDP was actually just .5% from, down from 1.4.

~So, you know, ~it- it’s interesting when  you hear, yes, we’ve got a lot of inflation,   and we do, but it’s interestingly enough that,  ~you know, the, ~the data is showing a little  

bit different. The final thing is this is  what the Fed looks at. ~Of, ~of all the   data that’s out there, this is what the Fed  really cares about, and it’s the core PCE.

And core PCE, ~you know, ~of course  they’ve been concerned that oil and   everything is gon- has had an effect, and  it’s caused ~a, ~a rise in inflation. And  

core PCE came out basically right in, within  the range, which this one they didn’t have a   truck to drive [00:23:00] through. ~Uh, ~.2  to .4, came in at .3, right at the consensus.

~Uh, ~the revised number was .3, so we didn’t  really see anything more spike up. ~Uh, ~core PCE  

year over year was 3.3. It’s now at 3.4. ~So,  you know, ~once again, yes, things could be a  

lot worse. Yes, it doesn’t feel good to still  be paying, ~you know, ~even here in Texas,   we’re paying slightly over th- ~you know,  ~$3. I think I, last fill-up was 3.20.

Here in Texas. ~Um, ~I would expect- You have the Ron Lang: cheapest gas Jeff Kikel: Yeah. ~Well, I  mean, we’re, ~we’re right   next to the production. Actually, ~uh,~  Oklahoma’s the cheapest in the country- Ron Lang: Yeah … ‘

Jeff Kikel: cause they’ve got  all of their- California and Ron Lang: Arizona are the two highest.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. ~Um, ~so ~I mean, ~we’re  seeing good things happen. ~I mean, ~or   not necessarily good, but not  bad things happen with this.

~Um, ~oil, I think I looked at it this morning,  was like $67, West Texas Intermediate 69,  

Brent, ~uh,~ that’s a 30, 35% drop  from the highs. ~Um, ~that’s gonna   start [00:24:00] having some effect going in.  ~Uh, ~the, ~uh,~ interesting thing was, ~uh,~ I  

was listening to the news on the way in  and they were talking about, ~um,~ the cost   of fertilizer because the urea plants  in Iran, and they were saying cost of   fertilizer has come down dramatically,  ~uh,~ since the straits have reopened.

But they’re not sure if Iran can get their  production up enough to keep that going   for the next cycle of when the farmers need,  ~you know, ~their, ~uh,~ their fertilizer and  

things like that, ~um,~ because they haven’t been  able to really assess any damage that was done,   which I don’t think we really did  any damage to that type of stuff.

We were blowing up other things.

Ron Lang: ~Uh, ~I’m still  trying to figure out what   the true net benefit of all that was  at this point, so we’ll have to see.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. That’s… Once again, we’ll  see. ~I mean, ~it’s, ~uh,~ it’s gonna be a long   process. But ~I, ~I think, ~you know, ~going  back to what we were talking about in your,   the last part of your segment, I think the  smartest thing that ~the, ~the Gulf country…

Yeah, the other Gulf countries could  do is everybody [00:25:00] put up some   money, ~you know, ~UAE and Oman give up a little  bit of land, it’s, which is all desert anyhow,  

and put another Panama Canal through there or  another Suez Canal through there. And- Yeah, Ron Lang: I wonder if Brian Sullivan was listening   to m- to our podcast when I  mentioned it three months ago.

Jeff Kikel: I know. ~Well, I mean, ~once again,   it’s, you, then you eliminate  their power completely and- Ron Lang: Yes …

Jeff Kikel: they have no control over  the strait. It’s, ~you know, ~you run   ships through there, both countries make  a lot of money in that process. We’ll have Ron Lang: to find another way to make money  other than extorting money from people.

Jeff Kikel: Yes. Yeah. ~Well, ~I’m  sure they will find some way, ~so. ~But Ron Lang: first- Jeff Kikel: I Ron Lang: hear you. So next week  we got, ~uh,~ July 4th coming up.

Jeff Kikel: Absolutely, which is awesome. Looking  forward to that. And, ~um,~ another long holiday   weekend, so we’ll, ~uh,~ enjoy that. Markets are  closed on Friday the 3rd, ~so, uh, we’ll, ~we’ll  

close up or start off July and then have ~a, ~a  day off in there, ~uh,~ to begin everything, ~so.~ Yep. Ev- everybody, ~uh,~ make sure you  subscribe to the channel. We’re here for  

you guys. We put these out for you, so make  sure that you share, ~uh,~ [00:26:00] share   the show with somebody as well. We’ll  see you guys back here the next time.