good morning audience from the sense of

things it’s us back again once again

this week a lot of stuff going on we had

a Fed meeting yesterday and an

announcement and we’ll talk a little bit

about that ron’s got a whole bunch of

good stuff for us and the last of his

trivia and we’ll also discuss a couple

things when it comes to a potential

trade deal that is coming out today

that’s going to be announced between the

US and the UK so stay tuned we’ll be

right back on in just a second

[Music]

hello everyone welcome to the show

welcome to the sense of things with Ron

and myself ron are how you doing bud not

too bad not too bad i got to tell you

investors are still nervous they’re

still bearish but the market is going up

they’ve had some pretty good earnings so

we’ll have to see if if there’s

continuing follow through at least over

the next couple of weeks yeah I’ve been

slowly working money back into the

market at this point we were heavily

bonds and I’ve been slowly working it

back in but I still it’s still there’s

just a lot of things that can change

quickly and the market reverse direction

and on a heartbeat and getting into

summer it it’s just be cautious I think

and get yourself in position to where

you need to be well there’s the old

expression selling may and go away and I

got to tell you that has been debunked

over the years it’s only like 30 or

40% so but

I I think that I don’t know if we’re

going to get a summer rally it all

depends on these trade deals even the

one that may come out it’s still not one

of the top five identified before but

we’ll see yeah absolutely you want to

get us started with your trivia

absolutely all right

i used to be an okay dart player not for

the score i hated doing the score but I

just loved it in darts what is the

highest possible score using three darts

36 right nope

now remember with think about the dart

board and then you got the two circles

remember the two circles the outside

circle if you get it in there it’s

double so if you get it in the 20 double

it’s 40 got it the middle one is triple

oh that means it’s 180

aha that tells you how much darts I play

we When my Obviously you’re just not a

barfly and a beer drinker my man no we

had it was funny before we moved from

Dallas my my brother-in-law after he got

divorced we would hang out together a

lot and so he was like into darts and we

ended up just completely screwing up my

garage wall out there drinking beer and

throwing throwing darts at the wall

there were I think more holes in the

wall than there was where the dart board

actually was yeah I hear you obviously

you must have been blindfolded so yeah

that was it obviously all right i I love

this one in 1900 what weird Olympic

event happened in Paris

you don’t even know where to go with

that this I could give you a hundred

choices you wouldn’t get it i’m never

going to get it yeah I wouldn’t get it

pigeon shooting pigeon shooting this is

awesome this is awesome

all right let him go

have somebody run out onto a an open

area and just shift them up in the air

and then just start that’s it all right

Rover go get the pigeons bring them back

here get the pigeons yes all right which

animal has the highest blood pressure

and give it a thought because it does

make sense

i’m gonna say elephant no okay giraffe a

giraffe okay yeah because you got to get

a lot of blood i didn’t think of the

elephant but yeah you would think so but

giraffe the long neck and Yep yeah you

gota and it’s always vertical so it’s it

you got to get it all the way up the

neck and back so I saw this article two

weeks ago i’m sorry two days ago and

then all of a sudden I saw it everywhere

yesterday okay you want to talk

about ridiculous lawsuits we are in a

latigious world as we all know and

you’re a sports fan i’m a sports fan i’m

not as much of a sports fanatic geek as

I used to be but I follow You did follow

the draft correct the football draft

absolutely so what was the big story

with the football draft for the most Was

they was Dion Sun got punked shador

Sanders here we go oh boy somebody was

very upset and is now suing the NFL for

$100 million because

of distress because he was a low draft

pick obviously representing himself

because no even even shyer lawyer would

represent him i can’t wait to see when

this goes in front of court to see how

much the judge browbeats him but he was

basically saying he was very frustrated

because he was projected to be the first

or second pick no later than the top

five and due and and it was due to

watching mediocre players be chosen in

front of him it was frustrating how all

the NFL owners colluded and here’s one

of my favorite things

that the decisions made regarding

Sanders may have been influed by racial

discrimination violating his rights as a

player he’s not even an NFL player yet

no they may have engaged in unfair

practices by misrepresenting the nature

of the drafting process and the

qualification of players

this is insane

emotional violated the Sherman Antirust

Act okay this guy either thinks he’s a a

lawyer or he is a lawyer that’s got some

he’s been smoking some wacky weed in

Colorado or something you know what in

the article did say what he did i don’t

have it here but listen this is your

show i’m just a guest so I’m just

letting you know I may feel emotional

distress from doing a 100 episodes with

you i’m just letting you know that now

no you’re a co-host dude so you we can

equally be sued by you man oh I got to

tell you the emotions i cannot wait for

this thing to be thrown out of car court

because obviously this person is

probably like a habitual sewer this is

insane yeah I love this all right GDP so

the GDP numbers came out about a week

ago and we did contract last quarter now

a lot of people think if we have two two

quarters of contraction that means we’re

in a recession no that’s a technical

recession that economists use the NBER

the National Bureau of Economic Research

determines when there’s a recession now

this is interesting

we had a contraction in Q1 before the

major tariff announcements were

presented in obviously April 2nd so

it’ll be interesting to see because

what’s going on out there with just

contraction in manufacturing contraction

in retail internationally what’s going

on which does impact us supply chain i

know people will say it’s different this

time

i don’t know if we can say that it’s

never different anytime but yeah we’ll

see once again 90% of these tariffs

haven’t even gone into effect yet and I

love the I’ve listened to some of the

conference calls with some of these

companies and especially the ones that

didn’t do well boy that’s their first

thing oh the

tariffs we did terribly no how about

that you ran your company for crap

what they’re not what they’re doing is

they’re not giving guidance or their

guidance is very tepid as far as could

do this it could do that which doesn’t

help anybody but guess what if you’re a

CFO or CEO and you do multinational

business you really don’t know no no you

don’t but like I said so many though of

the ones that really had poor quarters

poor Q1s you know oh that’s the first

thing it’s all this tariff stuff that’s

happening that it’s causing our company

to Okay what explain to me the last four

quarters in a row that you’ve

underperformed what how is that to do

with anything related to tariffs so I

always love these companies that you

know that oh that’s the thing we can can

blame because we just ran a really

crappy company at that point i hear you

all right so the next one so the payroll

numbers came out last Friday May 2nd and

you and I have looked at the detail of

this and we always have joked about the

government jobs

now not all of this is in the current

administration but what happened to Doge

from January 20th to May 31st and

getting rid of government jobs how is

that the third leading category of new

jobs I don’t understand

this you got two million employees so

that’s Yeah and but we’re high but we’re

supposed to be contracting not adding oh

I know i totally know i think part of it

too you add government jobs in there

military

um which has expanded dramatically

you’ve got Border Patrol which brought

back a whole bunch of people i think

there’s I think there’s contraction and

then there’s been some additions as well

into that i see this trend because there

is no way this should be a top three or

five category oh I totally agree it is

what it is and the government’s still a

massive employer no matter what happens

and they still have to staff stuff yeah

my last one is the Fed target rate now

the chart up here in the upper left this

was before the meeting and this was as

of this morning so just to let people

understand what this means right now we

are 425 this is where we are as of right

now and you could see from April 1st May

1st to May 2nd just in two days how what

the chances of us increased as far as

staying where we are or going down a

quarter of a point now let’s look over

here basically this is saying 16% chance

of going down 25 basis points 32% chance

of going down 50 and I think this is

interesting because typically most

strategists don’t recognize if we truly

are going to go down unless it’s above

50% but here we are 63% probability of

at least a 50% cut in the June 28th

meeting here we are here uh I’m sorry oh

did I screw up i screwed up hold on one

sec oh it’s January keep keep chatting

what are your thoughts because I I’m

going to pull it up here i think it’s

Yeah I mean I think I think they’re

going to go down i just can’t see them

going down 50 basis points because

they’re so hyper cautious unless

something dramatically changes and I

think that what I got from the Fed

chairman as usual is that hey we’re

keeping an eye on this stuff and we’re

concerned a little bit about employment

but it seems to be holding up and we’re

super concerned about the tariffs adding

inflation and everything else i

personally think that if we see anything

in June it’s just going to be 25 basis

points and then they’re going to look

and see throughout the summer would not

expect them to do anything more until

the fall after that if they’re looking

for two to three rate cuts do they start

in in June and if so typically they

follow each other like it did last time

yeah yeah and then if I remember

correctly they don’t meet in August

right no no yeah you’ll see that they

could July do 50 basis points and then

hold off until the fall and see where

things are at so here’s the updated ones

basically we were at 63% before for at

least the 50% pay pay uh Fed cut but now

that’s been reduced a little bit to

roughly 53 54% okay like I said I just

think they’re hyper

cautious at the most I could see is 25

basis points they might do a follow on

in July but listening to the Fed

chairman I didn’t really get that from

him that there’s any major concern at

this point that we need to be cautious

and I think I think the uncertainty as

we keep saying the elevated uncertainty

is possible inflation now I will say I

won’t get into the details of the

stories but I’ve talked to three people

two of them are clients that have

businesses and they’re multin they they

do business with other countries as far

as bringing in product one of them said

it could be a death blow to them because

of the China if that is not resolved

because their margins are gone at that

point with that tariff and he’s been

doing that business for what 14 years

yeah got a lot of employees apple safe

right the small businesses are gonna

suffer well I mean you think of all the

all the small businesses that do import

for Amazon sales that’s going to be a

massive blow and it’s already been I’ve

noticed if I order anything that I know

is obviously a Chinese product there’s

no show up on the door anymore like it

used to be it’s It might be 3 days it

might be five days it might be 10 days

now when you order something like that

because it’s already been that way for

months I I

see there’s going to be it’s going to

hurt small businesses more than I think

the big businesses because big business

is going to adjust where they need to

but big so small businesses are going to

go away and the big businesses are just

going to contract but obviously the

bigger businesses they got the cash flow

to survive sure whatever it is the small

businesses they may not be able to

survive one quarter yeah because they I

mean they yes you can switch pretty

easily but there’s not the structure in

place let’s say I import things from

China by buying them on AliExpress or

something like that or Alibaba okay so

now I do that okay i there is not an

Alibaba in Mexico or an Alibaba in India

or something like that where I can

easily access those products like used

to be you know and it was very easy you

just go on to Ali Alibaba order the

product and then go from there i think

it’s going to hurt small bit no matter

what happens from this i think it’s

going to hurt small businesses because I

think China is wounded at this point i

think they us Yeah but I think they’ve

been wounded for a couple years because

they screwed themselves during the

pandemic with a lot of the it especially

for big businesses it showed their weak

spot with the supply chains and things

like that and I think a lot of them had

already been shifting before this and I

would see it’s very likely that people

will shift the problem I think for big

business right now is they’ve got to see

because we’re not doing trade deals as a

as like a group or an area and we’re

doing them individually they’re going to

have to figure out okay what’s the trade

deal with this country okay now we can

start to focus on where we move our

supply chain but remember here’s the

bigger issue and this is why Target

Walmart Lowe’s and Home Depot went to

the White House a few weeks back what

they need for the second half and

specifically in Q4 they have to order by

June and July

so at that like I said the summer should

be very interesting it’s going to heat

up no pun intended because I I don’t see

this I don’t see this happening quickly

by the way that whole deal with Britain

and India people were talking about

their trade deal that took three years

that took three years yeah uh what are

we what are we gonna do this in six

weeks three months

i think this is a little bit different

white house or or a different different

team negotiating that is a lot more

motivated and the deal between Britain

and India there’s a whole lot of bad

blood still I think in that world that

that was really overcoming more bad

blood than anything i think this is

going to go relatively quick the the

announcement I saw this on investors

business day or investors business daily

today just a quick little article about

the tariffs it looks like that US and UK

have got a deal down and from what CNN

is saying this is what they were

reporting cnn is saying that it’s going

to be a 10% reciprocal tariff but it’s

10% now no it isn’t it’s 25 oh no i’m

just saying there was at least a 10%

across the board that was the minimum

was 10% yeah it was 25 and that would

been put on hold the other thing this

was interesting in this article it said

in return for accepting the 10%

reciprocal UK would pair back or

eliminate its 2% tax on digital services

revenue from search engine social medias

and online marketplaces which so they

they stick it to our tech companies on

this type of stuff so it’s likely that

they’ll remove that which is good for a

lot of the tech companies so we’re make

we’re making the top seven stocks bigger

yes more profitable that’s correct

that’s how it works there so what else

you got no that’s it my man till next

week we’ll see how things progress

through the summer never a shortage of

conversation that’s for sure nope nope

and it was a quiet week the Fed

announced nothing basically a nothing

burger i was just looking at econo day

today the jobless claims in line i think

it although everybody thinks the world

is getting worse it’s actually really

not it’s there hasn’t been major

contraction in labor yeah yep and we

haven’t seen it yet which is interesting

you saw the you saw people move out of

government but then now government’s

hiring people back in so I don’t know

all right folks thanks for joining us

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