This week on Cents of Things, Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang cover: • Where global wealth is actually concentrated (top 20% vs. top 1%) • Why AI stocks may just be taking a breather • U.S. states that are larger than entire countries • The Supreme Court tariff ruling — what it really means • Consumer confidence update • And one of the most consequential Fed discussions happening right now: banking regulation reform Are markets “Teflon” right now? Are we over-regulating banks? Is global wealth concentration surprising — or exactly what you’d expect? Plus: What happened this week in history — from the Miracle on Ice to Nike’s waffle sole patent. This episode is packed. 👉 Subscribe for weekly economic insight without the noise.
👉 Share with someone who wants real perspective. #CentsOfThings #Investing #Economy #AIStocks #FederalReserve #Tariffs #wealthgap 0:00 Welcome & Market Overview 2:00 AI Stocks Taking a Breather? 5:00 This Week in History Highlights 13:00 Global Import Reliance by Country 16:30 U.S. States vs. Global Economies 18:00 Wealth Concentration: Top 20% vs Top 1% 20:00 Supreme Court Tariff Decision Explained 24:30 Consumer Confidence Update 26:00 Fed Banking Regulation Reset 29:00 Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome & Market Overview
Hello everybody. Welcome to another week with the sense of things. On this week’s show,
we’re going to talk a little bit about, of course, the way we usually start, what’s going on in
history. Ron’s got really good stuff that he came up with of where global wealth is consolidated
within the top 20%, the top 1%. He’s also got some information on the size of the global economy and
how several of our states are larger than a lot of countries that are out there. I’m going to
come in and talk a little bit about the tariffs from last week and the Supreme Court decision.
Real quick economic update. There wasn’t a lot of economic news today. And then what I think is one
of the most consequential things that’s happening this week coming out of the the Federal Reserve
with banking regulation. So stay tuned. We’ll be right back on and just hang in there for a second.
Hey everybody, welcome to the show. Ron, how are you my friend? Good morning. Yes, we are in the
last week of the shortest month, February and walked out this morning and we could be wearing
shorts to work. It’s been gorgeous here. I had the top down. I loved it. Nice. Nice. Love Yeah, we we
we didn’t really have a winter this year. So, we had about two weeks of winter and we’re right back
to summer months here. Yeah. And it seems like we got Teflon markets. Doesn’t matter what the State
of the Union said. Nvidia earnings came out last night. It was a It was a bit of a of a nothing
burger. They’re down almost two and a half%. Yeah. And absolutely crushed it. Yeah. I at this point
AI Stocks Taking a Breather?
I don’t think anything any of the AI players can do is going to really push them up in the market
at this point. Look, they’re making they’re a cash cow. They’re making hand they’re making money hand
over fist and really at this point with Nvidia and a couple of the other ones I’m not going
to say the patina is off, right? Or the bloom is gone. It’s just a matter of I think at this
point people taking a breather. Yeah. And I think we got to get through the balance of this month,
maybe go into Q2 and then all of a sudden people realize, oh, these companies are still making
money. The EPS is expand is growing. The PE is expanding. And then all of a sudden they realize,
oh crap, these are under undervalued now. And then all of a sudden these things will pop up 10 20% in
a couple of days or a week. It’s going to happen. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. And I think it’s always one
of those things where the market just decides I’m my interest is someplace else and I’m seeing it.
I had reduced a lot of that type of stuff in our portfolios. We really hadn’t seen any of
the whooping that that was happening with some of the AI stocks and some of the the mag seven and
things like that. But I’m sure it’s going to come back because once again, this is not the 2000s of
a whole bunch of dot stocks that are not making money. These are companies that make a crap ton
of money and they’re going to continue to because we’re in a different world. This is a world of
we’re going to continue to see more AI. It’s Yeah, I think right now it’s a lot of what the market’s
worried about is are companies going to continue to spend as much. If you have two or three
quarters where they continue to spend as much, maybe you were wrong. And I’ve also the market
will eventually get back. I’ve been saying this for a while that every couple of weeks, you see
with AMD and a few of the other ones, if they’re not making any announcements of partnerships,
deals, or we’re going to be spending more on AI, the stock is stagnant. And I think like
I said last year, is it 98 going in 99 or is this 99 going into 2000? Because despite the
profitability on the top companies, are they are they overextending their capital expenditures?
Yeah. And we won’t know this for several years, but at the end of the day, Oracle’s already gotten
called out for the way they’re financing it. Uh we’ll have to see. We’ll have to see. Absolutely.
What happened this week in history? Quite a bit. Okay. Numero uno. Why isn’t it popping up here?
Numero uno.
All right, let me pop it back up.
This Week in History Highlights
All right, you could edit that. Yeah. All right. 1819, the US acquires Spanish Florida.
Cool. Bueno. 1919, Grand Canyon is designated a national park. This was something Teddy Roosevelt
tried to do early on, but he didn’t get a chance to. He was probably the most prolific as far as
designating a lot of America land to national parks and preserves. Yeah. For Yellowstone,
especially. Interesting thing, my my wife’s family when we were doing some genealogical research,
her greatgrandfather was he basically owned a ginormous ranch that became the northern part
of Yellowstone Park. It was sold to the federal government. They could have made a TV show about
them. I know. Nope. That’s already been done. 1922 Supreme Court defends women’s voting rights.
Remember, they were given the right. I think it was in 1920 or 21 and the Supreme Court upheld
it. Why they even had to why people even sued against this is just incredible. Yeah. I’m like,
okay, you everybody ratified it, so what’s the problem? And remember, we had that I had that
stat probably two, three months ago when Wyoming Yeah. had women’s voting rights and that’s why a
lot of women were going there. Besides there was like a 10 to1 male female ratio. So whatever if
you wanted to get married that was the place to go because there was a lot of selection. 1940 NHL
game televised in US for the first time now being a season ticket holder of the Philadelphia Flyers
for many years. I could tell you this hockey has always been much better to watch in person. Yeah.
On color TV at times it was difficult to follow the puck. Yeah. I could not imagine what it was
like in a black and white snowy version to try and follow the puck on TV. Snowy plus the fact
that they would have if you look at TV back then it would have a double image and stuff like that.
Yeah. I can’t even imagine. I don’t even think people knew they scored until the guys put their
hands in the air. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. It’s hard enough to follow today with all the fancy cameras
that they have. I can’t imagine them filming it on those big cameras that were like six feet long.
So now 1954 children received first polio vaccine. I thought this was earlier but 1954. Huh? 1960.
All right. We had a little history repeat itself with a gold medal. US Olympic team
beats the Soviet Union. And as great of a game as that was and as incredible talent on both side,
this still is bigger because you had amateurs versus pros. Yeah. 19. So, we beat him in 1960,
but we also beat him in 1980, too. Uh, yeah. But remember, 1960 was amateurs on both sides,
as far as we know. Yeah. Okay. But, interestingly enough, Yeah. 1960,
1980, and then now 19 or 2026. Yeah. Now, it’s all pros. But, you know what? Really,
I give them such credit because those guys are so patriotic and amazing. And the ladies as well,
just absolutely amazing. And it could The game could have gone either way many times.
Oh yeah. And I I how they pulled that last goal off. I It was crazy. Yeah. So I find this one
comical. 1964 Italian government seeks aid for fixing Lady Tower of Visa. Did they never get
funding? They tried. today. When I was there the last time, how long ago was that? That was 201
12 10 somewhere around there. It’s still leaning, isn’t it? It still leans. For a while they had
they’d put in like a ginormous post in the ground and they had it years ago like metal cables,
but since that point like when we were there it wasn’t they they had finally figured out how to
put some stuff in the ground to stop it from leaning farther at this point. And now you can
actually go up into the leaning tower pisa. Oh, really? I thought Yeah. For the longest time you
couldn’t because they were it was leaning even more every time people got up in it.
Oh boy. All right. 1974 Nike receives patent for waffle sold trainers invented in a waffle iron
by a lot of people think. It’s Bill Bowererman. Bill Bowererman was a World War II hero vet and
he’s the one that I mean that Oregon track team he made world famous and had a lot of big Olympians
come out of there. But yep, this was the first one and he was the one that did it. And then obviously
Phil Knight added the business aspect to it. Yep. And Steve or Steve Prefontaine actually
tested them all. Yep. And 1980 the Miracle on Ice. So 1960 were two amateurs. The 1980 Miracle on Ice
happened. We all know what happened there. 1983 final episode of Mashars which I did watch and
and was watched by 70% of the television viewing audience. And that’ll never happen again. No. No.
And it’s really not when I went back and watched it. Two choices and two local choices. This is
what you watched. That’s exactly right. Plus the fact it was not really the best episode ever. It
was Oh, I thought it was very good. And I was someone that watched a lot of reruns because
I was pretty young when it first started. Sure. But I thought it there I thought they did a great
job. I have never seen it since, by the way, but I thought they did a great job. Go back and watch
it. It’s not near as good as you thought it was. It’s cuz we watched Now you’re being more critical
of it. Yeah, we’ve been watching We went back and watched multiple times. We’ve watched the
entire MASH series and they I we went they don’t play that one very often and and like once a year
they play it and we watched it a couple years ago and I’m like, “Wow, this thing is way too
long and very weird.” It it was a very two hours on TV. So, it was really about an hour and a half
playing time. Yeah, it’s like hour 30 minutes, hour 40 minutes, something like that. But yeah,
it’s just very weird as we watch. It’s just odd. 1991, Gulf War ground offensive begins.
I remember it very well. So do I. 1993, World Trade Center is bomb. Somebody I had just started
dating literally there’s a picture of her in the paper holding something over her mouth. She was
coughing from all the smoke. She was, I think, working down the street or she had a meeting
down the street or something like that. Wow. 2014, El Chapo, the TR, I call him the tunnel king. Uh,
the world’s most wanted drug kingpin is captured in Mexico. I got to tell you, the tunnel systems
that they were able to build, especially on that jail on that jailbreak, incredible how they
calculated all that out. Obviously, they knew pe they paid off people in the prison because there
was so much noise in the building was shaking. They didn’t want to alert. But it was just amazing
how they engineered that. Let’s just leave it at that. Yeah. And then El Meno was wiped out this
week. So interesting that Yeah. It’s interesting that Mexico’s kind of kill trying to clean stuff
up before the FIFA World Cup. Yep. Number three, Dale Erenhard Senior killed in crash at Daytona.
I remember watching that bar person, but I did watch it. Yeah, I was sitting in a bar at the
time. Oh, it’s Yeah, it really honestly didn’t look like it was going to be that bad. And but
Yep. That’s I remember sitting in the Beantown pub in Boston at the time. 2022, Russia invades
Ukraine. We all remember. I can’t believe it’s been four years. I know. Just It’s like the war
that will never end. Geez. Well, they’re talking again. Unless Ukraine makes concessions on land,
Global Import Reliance by Country
it’s not going to happen unless Yeah, but I’m not I honestly Yeah. Honestly, at this point,
I’m not sure if they even gave concessions to it that they would have to. That’s my point. I’m
saying even if they gave concessions at this point, which I think they’re willing to, I’m
not just Putin is just evil. There’s just no other way to explain it. He’s Move it on. I got you. All
right. So, here we go. I kind of going back to our vishial capitalist friends. Import reliance. Look,
we could spend a whole hour on this chart, but I thought it was interesting because this chart
basically represents the reliance on countries surviving on imports. But, okay, let’s just start
out. US is only 14%. which means we’re pretty self-independent when it comes to producing
the goods the goods that we need. Um, I find it interesting on the bottom Hong Kong. I don’t know
how you get to 178%. I How do you get to more than 100% of being reliant? I don’t understand
that. Then I didn’t see any explanation. Yeah, you understand like Australia, right? You understand
it doesn’t have Hawaii here. But obviously if you’re an island state or if you don’t you if you
depending on your climate you may not be able to be as self-sufficient when producing especially in
agriculture and stuff like that. Wow. It’s amazing what I can’t really see it but what’s Canada like
37% 33% in Canada 33%. Wow. Mexico’s 38%. I thought that was low just because of the nature
of their economy. But I also find it interesting too, the low numbers in South America being being
pretty pretty self-reliant, them being able to do what they need to do to produce it. Cuba doesn’t
surprise me whatsoever. Being 82% obviously we’re not helping them. Once they have a change
of regime, I’m telling you that company will take that country will take off. Sudan, that surprised
me. 1%. How are they producing everything that they need? I don’t know. They’re a big desert.
I guess that kind of surprised me. And why are they like the percentages of the country
surrounding them? Yeah. And then Djibouti is what, 113 or 119 or something? 115. Yeah. 115. It’s once
again, how do you get more than 100%. I don’t get that. Yeah. And like I said, Singapore 144.
That makes sense. Being an island, they might not be able to get everything. They might not be able
to produce oil or beef because there’s only so much space on land space on there anyway.
Okay. Yeah. But it makes sense for I think that’s Kazakhstan up there above China or is that Nepal?
This country. Yeah. I don’t know what that country is. I’m completely geographically stupid when it
comes to some of the some of the geography. That actually may Yeah, it may be Mongolia up
there or it’s one of the stands. Wait, China and Russia. Yeah. Yeah. I’m not sure. Yeah. or it’s
one of the stands like Kazakhstan or one of those just not people are watching this going did you
guys go to school or what yeah exactly it doesn’t identify it but yeah that that makes sense they’re
completely landlocked on all sides and basically a big desert so yeah that that makes sense but
yeah Europe I think is the real challenge there they don’t produce anything yeah but you got to
remember too they have had literally hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of years of development and
U.S. States vs. Global Economies
growth and population and whatever that they probably they don’t have the land and they
probably don’t have the resources. Yeah, it is what it is. Okay, here we go. Well, it’d
be interesting to see does this really include importing from other European countries? Yeah,
it because of the European do a lot of trade with each other. Yeah. And obviously the transportation
costs are going to be less. Yep. Okay. So, here are the top 50 global economies. Okay. Just under
half, 19 of them are US states. So, we know about California. They moved up from five to four in the
last what 18 months. Texas obviously is up there, too. New York, that was a given. Florida surprised
me being higher than Illinois and Pennsylvania. Arizona’s down here. Look for Arizona to keep
going up over the next 5 to 10 years. I wouldn’t doubt if they were they wouldn’t be in the top
25 in the next 10 years, especially in the data center world and some of that with Taiwan semi
and stuff. Taiwan. Yeah. Taiwan and Intel. You got other semiconductor companies out here. You got
migration coming here. Gold global headquarters are coming here. Yeah. Over the next 10 years,
this will this will I think this will creep up to the top 25. Yeah. It’s just scary how
we literally have US or states that are beating entire countries. It’s amazing to me. When you
have the printing press to do all the money, it helps. And obviously there’s international
investment here. Yeah, international investment. And I just think we’re the most innovative in the
Wealth Concentration: Top 20% vs Top 1
world. I think that’s going to continue to be this way. Yeah. And if you see the stat here, in 2000,
California ranked eighth. It was five for many years and now it’s four. Will it surpass Germany?
I would say probably. So, probably. Yeah. Yeah. If they don’t keep having a mass exodus and then
they don’t do a wealth tax, there’s a possibility they’ll surpass them. Yeah. All right. My last
chart. I thought this was interesting because everybody always talks about either a potential
ridiculous wealth tax on the the 100 million 100 millionaires or the billionaires. They invested in
the stock market. They invested in real estate. Now, obviously, you need money to make money,
right? Do you need money to invest money? But I thought this was interesting where the top 20%
of wealth make up almost 90% of corporate equity and mutual fund ownership. And that would make
sense. Look at the stock market. how much of those portfolios have grown with consistent
contributions over the last 161 17 years and not only that too real estate has boommed too. So just
overall wealth but this is investment corporate equity and mutual fund ownership now of that the
top 1% owns almost 40% of equity and mutual fund of a mutual fund ownership per Fed data. Yeah. I
don’t know what your thoughts are on this, but it doesn’t surprise me because I’ve heard for
20 years 80% of the wealth is held by people over 55. They’ve had years to let it grow if they’ve
invested. So the people that are in their 50s and 60s that come to you and I and say, “Hey, I’m now
ready to save for retirement.” I’m like, “Where were you in your 20s and 30s?” That’s exactly
right. I think it was probably our generation that we we didn’t have another option. Like my parents’
generation or our parents’ generation, they had another option. They could work for a company and
have a pension. And that was that time period that kind of changed mid-career for a lot of
Supreme Court Tariff Decision Explained
them. Whereas for us, we didn’t have we’ve never known another option, which was you’ve got to save
otherwise nobody else is doing it for you at that point. Yeah. All right. What do you got? I don’t
really have a slide for this, but just wanted to talk a little bit about I love the media,
but the media can be a little goofy sometimes. Talking a little bit about the tariff thing in
the Supreme Court. Last week, the Supreme Court struck down the president’s ability to use
emergency powers act for tariffs and things like that. Of course, the media immediately I saw just
headline after headline, tariffs are struck down. There can be no tariff. No idiots. It doesn’t work
that way. The par the president still has the ability to use tariffs. It’s just he has to work
in the normal process which includes Congress and everything else, but tariffs can still be there
and tariffs have been used, you know, throughout history for very specific things. So yes, you’re
going to continue to see more tariffs at this point. the I think the administration expected
this and put in place some tariffs to make sure that a lot of these deals that have been made
are going to stay in place because I think with a lot of that initial tariff stuff was to encourage
these countries to to actually put together a deal and I I think a lot of those deals are going
to stay in place. They’re really good deals for a lot of these countries. What’s your thoughts?
You’re on mute. I’ve been talking about this with a few people over the last couple of days,
and this is what it comes down to. Whether you’re far left or far right, at the end of the day,
we all want free and fair trade. Let’s just stop. Let’s just stop there for a second. And at the end
of the day, no matter what the administration says about how bad it was over the years, with select
countries, it was absolutely very bad. With with I would say the core countries, it goes back and
forth to who has the advantage over decades. I think I should get that out there as being
nonpartisan. That one. Number two is I think the deals that are in place, yes, were a lot of these
countries forced to the table to make these deals. Yeah. But they negotiated in good faith. I think
both sides did. We weren’t in that room. So I think the deals that are in place, if they thought
it was that bad, I don’t know if these countries have uh the gumption or the kones to actually
step up and try and sue us. U that’s not going to happen. So I think the deals will stay in place.
And I think I don’t think China is still done. That hasn’t come out because every week there’s
more news coming out. So being elongated in my response to you, I think that free and fair trade
is important. I think if the deals are in place and both sides agree this is free and fair trade
to both sides, that’s fine. You have to have some type of tariff in place anyway. I give the example
just very quickly years ago with the dairy farmers in our northern border states were getting screwed
out because Canada was bringing in milk at under their cost because they had too much. they had a
huge surplus. So they were hurting our farmers. So we put a tariff tax on the Canadian milk to
at least bring the competition to even so our dairy farmers could survive during that period of
time. So the whole point is that yeah, we need to protect our people, our farmers, our manufacturers
too. My other quick example was geez five years ago, 10 years ago, it goes back and forth,
our steel producers were hurting because Japanese so much and the Chinese had so much they were just
dumping steel on our market at pennies on the dollar to get rid of it and it was hurting our
manufacturers. Is that fair to our manufacturers which ultimately help will hurt American citizens?
No. There is there’s a reason for these tariffs to be used in a way to make competition fair. I’m
off my soap box, but you get it. Yeah. But it’s the same thing with the forest products industry.
Our forest products industry, especially up in the Northwest, was literally decimated over the last
10 years. It had been for years, but literally decimated over that time period. And I think it’s
it was time to say, “Okay, all right, we need to even this out a little bit with Canada so that we
Consumer Confidence Update
can stabilize that industry a little bit and how we’ve got a lot of raw material. We just didn’t
have an industry anymore because it got killed off.” Yeah, I agree. What What else you got next
to for a whole hour? Oh, I know. Yeah. And that’s it’s fine but not fine at times. quickly share
really the only econom I mean everything else was in place economically this week but I think one of
the most interesting things was a pop back up in consumer confidence now it had dropped in January
but actually popped back up here so hopefully you’re starting to see some people say okay I
see things are starting to get a little bit better of course the media is just going to beat on this
non-stop but I honestly think we’re starting to see people go, “Huh, interesting.” And then,
of course, you’re going to see, I think, during tax season, the taxes we’ve run for some clients
already, they’re getting money back, which some people hadn’t gotten money back in years. So,
this is it’s I think it’s going to be pretty interesting to see if people actually put that
to work. Now, are they going to take it and invested in the stock market and mutual funds
like the top 20% or are they going to go buy TVs and things like that? Who knows? But we’ll see how
this all works out from a consumer point. The last thing I want to talk about, and this is, I think,
one of the most interesting things going on, the Fed vice chairman or chairwoman, Michelle Bowman,
Fed Banking Regulation Reset
has been heading the banking committee, and one of the things that she’s going to be talking about
today is the findings of her committee regarding banking regulations. Since the global financial
crisis, our banks have been just regulated regul and they just kept adding and adding and adding
and she’s making the point I believe today to say okay we went way too far and what’s happened and
I saw this a lot from the being a business owner I get surveyed by the Fed on a regular basis and so
I get these little things that I have to do ever so often to say what where I’m getting financing
from and things like that. And they’ve been very concerned, the Fed’s been very concerned
with the shadow banking world. And not shadow banking is anything bad, but private financing
versus more public financing through banks. And I think they’re making the point that we’ve gone a
little too far and we kind of need to back that off a little bit. And especially globally too,
we need to back that off a little bit so that we move financing more into the banking world
where they can be regulated a little bit more instead of a lot of this private financing.
A lot to talk about. We’ll actually be sharing more of this as we go throughout this year. Your
thoughts on it? Look, I’ve said this forever, especially after the financial crisis. Yeah,
I don’t want regul Nobody wants regulation for regulation’s sake. But but you also there are so
many bad actors out there and so many super smart people that use their intellect for evil reasons
that they know the loopholes and how to get around all that that you want to make sure that the
banking system is secure. But are we hamstringing them to do loans? No. Do we want to make sure that
they have good balance sheets for the for shock risks and whatever? Yes, of course. So, I don’t
know maybe what they might see as some extreme banking regulations, but we absolutely do need
them. We don’t want to prevent them from doing business either. Yeah. And I think we’ve put such
capital requirements on them that they it’s really prevented them and hamstrung them from doing a lot
of financing. I think it’s there there’s a happy medium in between where we were in 2007208. Yeah,
absolutely. They were doing a lot of crazy stuff and shooting out a lot of crazy loans. I’ve said
this for years. I wish the banking industry would just go back to what they used to do.
Take in deposits and give out loans. Get out of our industry. Get out of insurance. Get out of
private equity. Get out of venture capital. Get out of all that. That’s where all their risk is.
And for the most part, many of them are not good at it. Yeah, they’re not good at it. And
there is a tremendous amount of conflict of interest, which is a conversation for
Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up
another time because they’re pushing them towards their banking products,
which that is not their fid it’s not they’re violating their fiduciary responsibility,
but it’s what’s good for the bank. They need to just go back. It’s never going to happen.
But be yeah, be banks again. I think being able to merge investment banks into banks that just
ruined the world in a lot of cases. That’s why I’ve always had a little bit more love for the
community banks where they just do banking versus these big banks that are just conglomeration of
so many different things. Thanks a lot folks for joining us on the show. We do these for you. So
surely make sure you subscribe to the channel and we’ll see you guys back here the very next time.