TRANSCRIPT
us today today we’re going to have a show really focused around where’re we’re coming
up to the inauguration next week there’s a lot of anticipation for what’s going to happen the
market certainly had been anticipating this after the election and kind of went
sideways after that even a little bit down so what’s going to happen well who knows but
we’re going to talk about some of the things that potentially could happen or some of the
things that could affect the markets as we come into it so stay tuned we’ll be right back on in a
[Music] [Applause] [Music] second hey everybody welcome to the show Ron how you doing buddy good
Earnings Season and Inauguration Anticipation
hey do you know what season it is season oh okay sorry it’s freaking cold season here in Texas but
I’m yeah earning season two yeah that that too yeah yeah yeah yeah I hear you yep and then we
got the inauguration next week so yeah get your popcorn out yep yeah we it’s been amazing how
frantic the the this this Administration has been kind of getting things done right before the the
new administration’s coming in so it’s interesting to see that the FDA finally after only 50 years
realized that red Dy number two or whatever it is red number I was reading that yesterday yes
and finally after 50 years they decided to ban it but still not until like 2029 which like well we
can kill a few more people off before we get to that point but I think that was almost as much of
a shocker as when Taco Bell was announced 10 years ago that that only 40% of their meat was actually
meat nice so other than soybeans I really don’t want to know the rest was made yeah I yeah I don’t
really need to know how the sausage is made no all right well let’s let’s kick this puppy off by
Executive Orders and Market Implications
talking a little bit about what what some Market moving events could be going into the inauguration
of next week so uh we’re filming this on Thursday before the before the inauguration what do we know
so far that’s going to happen well this happens every time a new president comes in executive
orders now we don’t know specifically what those are going to be and we do know there’s like 150 of
them that are going to happen here on day one this is been I I I don’t know for you Ron this is kind
of a bone of contention for me because I I really hate when the executive branch decides to you know
do their thing and just basically do an end around to the Congress and everything else yeah well I’ll
tell you what one of my favorite things and then I’ll let you keep going here is no matter who’s
president when they do executive orders always hear the other side well that’s illegal he or
she can’t do that right and I’m thinking well if it was illegal then take action yeah take action
against it but but all say those SS are illegal but nothing ever happens that’s exactly right and
here’s the here’s the the chart that shows this you know you’ve got on the you know Eisenhower who
who everybody looks at is oh well Eisenhower was this you know good General and didn’t do a whole
lot yeah he was the he was the highest in history first year now the odds are this one actually
could be pretty big this year if what they’re saying is true I mean we could see this one be
off the charts this year so once again not a big fan of these that sometimes they do them and then
Congress starts to do their part and then they pull these executive orders off that’s why because
I mean Biden was one of the highest in history and they’re only showing 75 but a lot of that was
because the Congress came in and made changes that were part of those executive orders so I think
here’s the one thing that stands out to me is Ford yeah only in office two and a half years yeah
I don’t know if this is 12 months or during the calendar year because yeah he didn’t take over his
president until August of 74 well and in the last five months of the year or over 12 months from my
understanding this is only through the end of the first fiscal year so that’s in October so that’s
so he couldn’t have done all that in two months I don’t know I mean you know it was
shocking to me because I’m like Jerry Ford I don’t remember him doing any I mean I was
young but I don’t remember him doing anything but apparently he was writing some executive
orders fast that when he came in wonder if a lot of that had to do with and not to go down
this road that was right towards the tail end of the viam war the last few months I wonder
if some of that trying to trying to just get okay let’s get all this stuff out of
maybe we research that good news hopefully an end or ateas the ceasefire in the Israel Hamas War it
Middle East Conflicts: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire
it’s interesting that you know of course everybody who’s not Israel in Hamas was out there going it’s
all agreed and everything’s perfect and all that and and BB Netanyahu this morning was saying hold
on not so not so fast here on this stuff and you know I think it’s going to be an interesting thing
because you know of course people want to have the hostages come home everybody wants that and
nobody wants to see people just getting bombed out of their homes and all that but there has to
be an agreement and you know it’s it’s it always seems a little one-sided in some cases with the
with some well I usually would not do this but I’m GNA do it now I’m G to give a strong opinion
number one you can’t trust Hamas no they never live up to it this happened twice before and this
is a temp temporary ceas fire that’s number one number two Hamas is actually winning this whole
thing because they wanted to put Israel in the United States in a bad light and they got that
for the last 15 months that’s number two number three one of their end goals was they wanted
they wanted their their soldiers back that were taken as prisoner by Israeli so doing basically
a hostage for prisoner swap so in a way Hamas won this and it’s disgusting for me to say that
but essentially we’ll see what happens because it’s only a six weeks ceasefire and and I feel
very confident that no matter what it is they’re going to look to eliminate them no matter what so
we’ll have to see what happens yeah and and you know as far as the hostage I mean last I heard
there was a hundred and some odd hostages now they’re saying there may only be 40 of them alive
so nobody really even knows and there’s little factions within Gaza that are holding people
know so it’s not just one yeah it’s not one organized Famas there’s like little factions
of them all over the place so you you really I don’t think we know how many people they’re going
to get back you know and it it’s going to be an interesting thing I don’t think this is over by
any way shape or form it is a weaken Hamas and a weaken Hezbollah and a weakened Israel or Iran so
you know we might not see the out andout fighting that we had been seeing but I I don’t think we’re
through the end of it but yeah hey Jeff real quick to interrupt you this has been going on
thousands of years you think this is going to finally cease in our generation not happen no
Ukraine-Russia Negotiations
Ukraine and Russia negotiations so the other War that’s that’s threatening the world you know I
think there’s going to be more negotiations there you know I don’t think it’s going to be what ends
up happening I don’t think either side is going to like out this but you know there’s got to be
some kind of solution there because there’s really been you know it’s almost like since
the Israel Hamas things took over then it was like how just everybody forget about Ukraine Russia and
you know I mean it it just it’s got to stop at some point so hopefully we’ll see some kind of
a a a negotiation and and a least a cessation of of fighting which means that hopefully we don’t
have to pour billions and billions and billions of dollars into that I hate to say it it’s gonna
happen because with Gaza yeah and with Ukraine who who’s going to help subsidize and pay for
the rebuild yeah yeah we are absolutely right yeah yeah and I mean you think all we did in Japan yep
it’ll be us again and we’ll I think we helped do that in Vietnam too yeah well I mean we’ve done
it in every conflict we’ve been involved with you know we went back in and rebuilt afterward so yep
it’s going to be us that are going to be paying for it but hopefully if we can at least get a ceas
fire between the two so that you know at least we’re not pouring billions into you know maybe
if we pour some money in there it’ll help their economy and maybe we can make some money out of
it but yeah we’re going to be pouring a ton of money in there to help out unleashing oil and
Energy Independence and Market Impact
gas as we discussed on our previous show yes I think it’s going to be good from the perspective
of the you know that the the throughput to the economy you know lowering gas prices lowering
energy costs everything from fertilizer to diesel fuel to everything else I think is a
playthrough but if you watched our previous show the challenge with that is if you’re investing in
oil stocks you’re probably going to not be real happy with that yeah what’s your thought on that
Ron we have to be able to be somewhat energy independent yeah two of the most important
Commodities right yeah and and in the end with i and I just can’t believe with everything that
we’ve been through in the last 200 years that we’re actually kind of you know we don’t have more
peace in the world but that’s what power and greed always takes over yep and and and this all blends
into you know our energy thing and I know that you know the GOP is not a big fan of wind and
solar but I think that has to be a part of the equation well I I think it has to be a part of
the equation in all sector you know in all areas we need to be you know and I don’t think the GOP
is against it it’s just you can’t have that be the this complete you know there’s there’s the
environmental Lobby that will tell you oh well we just need wind and solar well okay I can’t have
windmill on top of my car you know I mean the the reality is yes we will have electric cars I drove
a Tesla when I was on vacation it’s a cool car but the whole time I sat there going okay when
when’s the battery going to run out you know I don’t want that and if I’m going across country
I sure is crap don’t want that where I have to sit someplace there’s a lot of charging station
yeah well there’s a lot of charging stations but even the fast ones it’s still going to be 4
minutes for me to top it off I I don’t want that on a long trip so you know until we figure this
out and and I’m a huge believer in hybrids you know I think hybrids I like the hybrid Eck of a
lot of sense because it takes that argument out of the picture completely so yes I think oil and gas
unleashing it is good in some aspect uh from an investment standpoint I don’t think it’s a good
choice and and you and I both agree we’ we’ve never been fans of it anyhow as far as port
folio asset no um persistent interest rates you know I think the the belief is oh well you know
Interest Rates and Economic Outlook
the fed’s going to come in and they’re going to lower interest rates but the problem is the Fed
doesn’t set the 10year interest rates that’s the market itself and the market itself is telling
you we’re not through this yet and I always said the bond guys are usually the smartest guy in the
room they’re the most boring guy in the room but they’re they’re also the smartest guy in the room
and they tend to be pretty well right on this and you’re seeing although they’ve pulled back
a little bit over the last couple days they’re still persistently up there in the 46 47 range
well look I I thought it was comical I was having a conversation with somebody a few weeks ago that
thought he knew what he was talking about you know the whole thing we what we’re saying for the last
two years hire for longer higher for longer well and he came to me says what happened for higher
for longer I’m like four and a half is still high yeah I said not only that but mortgage rates are
back over 7% for thir a year I said we’re not out of the woods yet I’m higher for longer and
now they were saying that uh the Futures are only talking one maybe two interest rate Cuts
this year yeah we all know how those forecasts work out well and and I would largely say those
are going to be at best on the back side of the year yeah because the fed’s going to wait and
see they they want to see what happens you know with all the yeah they want to see what happens
with the new Administration and what changes are and they’re they are data dependent so I
you know I I I listen to Chairman Powell and I I believe it what he says you know what we’re just
we’re going to take a wait and see attitude until we can get a handle on what you know is happening
in the economy with the new Administration well not that but Pal’s only got one more year on his
turn and and after that who knows what’s going to really who’s coming in and I think there’s
a couple fed Governors that are up for Renewal too so I mean you know it could change complet
different over the next potentially for the bad if they try and heat it up too much yeah tariffs
Tariffs and Trade Negotiations
you know so this you know I typically see as a Bad Thing from the the Tariff perspective however um
our our incoming president has been shown that he’s a pretty damn good negotiator and I think
in a lot of cases it’s punch him in the face and Pat him on the back afterwards um I do not in any
way shape or form think that we’re going to plow a ton of tariffs on Canada and Mexico um I think
that’s a negotiating tactic I think it’s highly likely that we’ll plow some tariffs onto CH you
know China at this point you know and I mean yes that might raise prices but it might be offset by
energy costs and everything else so I mean there’s just a lot there’s a lot of moving parts and and
to just say tariffs are bad I I I just I’m sorry that’s well actually the reality is terrorists
overall are bad yeah if they are followed through and executed that that’s the difference the threat
of it the realistic threat you know is just good for media fodder that’s it yeah well and like I
said I think it’s a negotiating tactic and I all presidents have used that you know as a way as a
means of getting the the other side to the table to make some agreements you know and and I think
we’re we’re going to see a lot of this and I think there’s going to be a lot of threats of you know
we’ll do it and and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump slap on some and and keep people’s feet to
the fire to get them to do stuff because I mean they had negotiated a ton of things with China
in the previous administration and then none of that was ever followed through China never did
anything that they were supposed to have done in those negotiations so you know what you hold her
feet to the fire right now I think we’re in a strong ER position than than even China is
at this point yeah see all right well that’s all I had today I think it’s going to be an
Conclusion
interesting at least next month it’s going to be a really interesting thing and we’ll be here to
cover that and share with folks but make sure that you guys are keeping up with us make sure
that you subscribe to the channel and we’d love some comments on this wherever you’re at drop a
comment in we’ll make sure that we get back to you with it and maybe put a a future show about
this coming down the road so thanks a lot and we’ll see you guys back here the very next time