COT 132 ===

Jeff Kikel: [00:00:00] Hello folks. Welcome  to the Sense of Things. Another week of all  

kinds of crazy fun markets have been  all over the fence this week. We’re  

starting off the morning pretty good.  We we’ve got some. Good economic data  

that we heard this morning. We will go  over third quarter final read on GDP.

Ron’s got a bunch of great information on  earnings on drawdowns in the s and p 500  

since the twenties. Lots of just good  information that I think, should be a good  

level set for a lot of us. So stay tuned.  We’ll be right back on in just a second.

Jeff Kikel: Hey, everybody. Welcome to  the show, Ron. How are you, my friend?

Ron Lang: Good. Good. Certainly  it has a bit of dull moment into  

the [00:01:00] year so far. 22 days  in, but or was 20, 22 days in 22. Yeah,  

I know. I don’t even know. It’s going so  fast. But I don’t know how your winter’s  

been. It’s been fairly mild here.  But I won’t tell you. We’re getting

Jeff Kikel: ready to, we’re getting get  ready to get whooped on over the weekend

Ron Lang: yeah, I heard.

Yeah it’s coming to you and moving up to the  northeast. Yeah. And everybody’s sending me,  

actually, I, there’s like  school closures. I’m like,  

yeah, you guys could keep all  that. I don’t want any of it.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, no, I don’t. Yeah I have a  feeling it’s gonna not really be as bad as they  

make it, but we’ll just I’m sure Austin will start  shutting down somewhere around Thursday afternoon.

It’s all supposed to come  in. On Saturday and Sunday,  

but I’m sure Austin will start shutting down  by Thursday. People are already buying out  

bread and toilet paper at the store,  which I still don’t understand that.

Ron Lang: Don’t forget

Jeff Kikel: the milk in input and output. Now  it’s just bread and toilet paper. That’s it.

Input I got,

Ron Lang: yeah, when I saw the the [00:02:00] US  

map of the weather, it looks like  you guys were gonna be getting ice.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, that’s, and that’s  typically what we get. We don’t,  

we rarely get snow. We get ice.  And that sucks because, it’s, it,  

it’s just sheer sheet ice, and especially  on the bridges and overpasses and for  

some god awful reason, they have to build the  world’s tallest overpasses here in this area.

No reason to. But they build  these massive overpasses,  

so they’re like a ginormous, sheer ice,  sheet when you’re going up and down ’em.

Ron Lang: Gotcha. All right.  You ready to get going?

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. What do we got  going on this week in history?

Ron Lang: We got a bunch of stuff. I’m gonna,  I’m gonna tick ’em off pretty quick here.

1639. The first colonial constitution  was established in Hartford, Connecticut,  

which I did not know. Interesting.  Certainly. That was 140 plus years  

before we actually had the Constitution for  70, 76, but I thought that was interesting.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: 1905, [00:03:00] the world’s  largest diamond found, 1.33 pounds.

Oh. That’s supposed to be a  period 3.1. I said, it is,  

it’s 3,106 carat diamond discovered.  Listen, good Lord, I don’t know about you,  

but that must have been one hell of a wedding  night when that was given to the lady. That’s  

all I’m saying. I don’t know how she  had to hold that thing with two hands.

Jeff Kikel: I’ve obviously, geez Almighty,

Ron Lang: 1908 Boy Scout movement  begins now they’ve combine girls  

and boys. It’s just called scouts, which is a

Jeff Kikel: shame. No. Yeah, they, but a lot  of it, they’re still a girl scouts too, that’s,

Ron Lang: yeah. But a lot of them have combined.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: Yeah. It’s unfortunate because I,  when I was young I went through Cub Scouts.

I only started Boy Scouts, but I. It was fun.  Not that I was a big camper and everything,  

it teaches you, camaraderie and whatever. I,  it’s one of those things where, it is real.  

You have to be in the army. I think when you’re  grown up, you gotta be in the [00:04:00] scouts.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, no, and I, I, it was funny.

My dad was an Eagle Scout. I was never a Cub  Scout or anything like that. It, I was a,  

we were part of ending guide. Through  the YMCA and stuff like that. But yeah,  

he just never he was always like,  ’cause since he was an indie,  

or since he was a a Eagle Scout, he is crap,  I’m not going doing anything with scouting.

’cause they’re always gonna  jam him into everything,  

at that point. And he just wasn’t  willing to make the commitment.

Ron Lang: Yeah. But you know what,  I gotta tell you not much anymore,  

but. When you see Eagle Scout on a resume or  whatever it’s like being in the military as yeah.

Hey, you completed something, you did  something that not a lot of people get to do.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. It’s only one or 2% of the  people ever, that stay in scouting and end up as  

an Eagle Scout. It’s very prestigious and I, and  back then it, I think even more prestigious. So

Ron Lang: I agree.

I agree. 1918 Ukraine declares its  independence and it’s been hell ever since.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, I was gonna say it’s  not really worked too well for him, but

Ron Lang: 1924, first Winter [00:05:00]  Olympics taste takes place in the  

French A Alps. And at that time, it  was known as the International Winter

Jeff Kikel: Sports Week. Winter Sports Week.

Okay,

Ron Lang: 1935, first canned beer goes on  sale. Huh? Kruger’s Finest Beer and Kruger’s  

Cream Ale From Rich from Virginia. Yeah. I’ve  never been, I’ve never been a beer guy. I am a  

vodka tequila person if that’s my choice. But  but that was interesting. But if you remember,  

I think it was in the twenties maybe it  was the thirties that Coke went to bottles.

And their sales took off. Yeah. So it was the  opposite direction for canned beer and all that.

Yep. 1945 Auschwitz is liberated.

Jeff Kikel: Wow.

Ron Lang: 1971 Manson and his  followers convicted of murder,

Jeff Kikel: and they just kept shoving  Charlie back in the hole every four years.

Ron Lang: Yep.

Jeff Kikel: He’d pop up and then go right back.

Ron Lang: Roe versus Wade is decided. Huh?

Jeff Kikel: Wow.

Ron Lang: And the debate [00:06:00]  continues. Yeah. 1973 president,  

LBJ dies in Texas. I had looked this up. There  was a three year period where we lost four or  

five presidents. Yeah, it was Eisenhower. Truman  yeah. LBJ. And I think there was a. Fourth,  

I can’t remember. It was all within a three  year period of, or four year period of time.

Jeff Kikel: I think it was  just those three, if I remember

Ron Lang: correctly. And he was young  too. He was in his sixties I think.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. But yeah, he’s, he drank like a  fish and smoked cigars and the man ate bacon Texas

Ron Lang: guy.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. The manna bacon at  every meal. You just can’t do that.

Ron Lang: No. 1976, the Concord Supersonic Jack  

takes off from Vitro Airport and it  lasted 25 years, I think it was 2001.

2002 was the last flight.

Jeff Kikel: Yep. After that one blew up in crash.

Ron Lang: Yeah. And that was a,  yeah, it hit something on the runway.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Piece

Ron Lang: of metal on the runway and it got  up into the fuel tank on takeoff and then,  

anyway, yeah, [00:07:00] 1977. I did not  know this. Carter Pardons, draft Dodgers.

Jeff Kikel: Okay.

Ron Lang: I did not know that.

And

Jeff Kikel: that is shocking  to me because he was a,  

he was a nuclear sub commander,  so that was shocking to me.

Ron Lang: Yeah. Whatever I, yeah. Look,  you’re in the military. I know. Like you,  

I know how you would feel against this,  but and I did. I did. I did not know that.

Jeff Kikel: That’s crazy.

Ron Lang: 1984. Apple’s iconic, 1984  commercial airs during the Super Bowl.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: Awesome. This is when the  Super Bowl, look in, in about 10 years,  

the Super Bowl probably take place in April  or something. Who knows what’s gonna happen.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: Alright. 2009 Toyota. I remember  this officially passes GM as the planet’s  

biggest car maker. Wow. I don’t know,  I don’t know if that holds true today.

Possibly.

Jeff Kikel: I tell you the, like the South Korean  companies are catching up pretty dang quick.

Ron Lang: Yeah. Kia is definitely

Jeff Kikel: gaining a lot of ground. Yeah.  I see Kias and [00:08:00] Hyundais around  

way more than I see Toyotas even, and  they build the trucks here in Texas,  

in San Antonio. But I see a lot of Toyota trucks.

I don’t see as many Toyota cars, I think  anymore as I see Hyundais and Kias.

Ron Lang: Obviously in the mid  eighties, the Hugo really didn’t

Jeff Kikel: go

Ron Lang: very far. Those things were  like little matchbox death traps.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, pretty much. Pretty much. Yeah.

Ron Lang: Alright, here we go. From FactSet  took a little piece of the article here.

The the earnings is supposed to be possibly  double digit growth five quarters in a row,  

which obviously is a good sign, but is it  ahead of its skis and valuation with the  

market? Up for debate, just very quickly, we  got the two charts on the bottom. The one on  

the left was the estimate versus actual, and  you could just see in the last five quarters.

The actual just blew away the estimates,  which again is where you and I always come in,  

laugh at our rear ends off at the market  [00:09:00] strategist and the analyst  

that you don’t have a fricking clue,  which, it’s the funny thing. It’s like  

you and I trying to predict. Where’s  revenue gonna be in the next quarter?

Yeah. Or a year from now, there’s and they  have the smartest people and they know their  

businesses inside and out. Yep. And the companies  don’t know, and the analysts have no clue.

Jeff Kikel: Yes, absolutely not.

Ron Lang: So it literally, it’s  like literally blindfolded throwing  

a dart. Yeah. And this is where you  and I always have some fun with, but

Jeff Kikel: it’s just, and  then it, I, my favorite is.

The, okay, the stock gets pummeled, the  earnings reports down, and then blah, blah,  

blah. Analyst moves such and such from, 250  to 256, for this, the projection up to 256.  

Okay? They just had the worst quarter they’ve ever  had, but you still think the stock’s gonna go up?

Okay.

Ron Lang: Yeah. I remember when I was early  on, I remember watching CNBC and I always said,  

the best way to watch CNBC is on mute.  And I remember they had somebody come on,  

I can’t remember which company,  and they’re like oh, the stock  

got [00:10:00] hammered. Like they call it  hammered. It’s down 5%. It got hammered.

Yeah. And they were like they were expecting  revenues of 200, 2 million. They only hit 1  

99. Ah, yeah. Terrible quarter. Terrible  quarter. I’m like, just kidding. Kidding.

Jeff Kikel: You need

Ron Lang: to pumble that stock  down. Kidding? They missed it by  

3 million. Yeah. And like you, you  just, you Anyway, I, it just kills  

me like how they come out and oh  markets in turmoil it’s down 7%.

Markets aren’t in turmoil. Anyway. All right.  Real quick on this one. So this one is earnings  

expectations by sector, what is either in line or  above or below. And I always find it interesting,  

the consumer discretionary, it’s  gotten hammered since the height  

of COVID where people are still buying,  but they don’t have the margins anymore.

They were able to increase. Prices back  then they don’t have the margins today.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: So look for Oreo cookies to get  [00:11:00] smaller and the prices to go  

up. That’s that that I have the, we have the,  remember that we have the underwear indicator,  

the lipstick indicator. I have the,  I forgot, I have the Oreo indicator.

Jeff Kikel: I forgot about  the underwear indicator.

Ron Lang: I forgot, what was  it? When men buy less underwear,  

that means the economy’s going  into crapper, no pun intended.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Literally. Yeah. I’m like,  okay, men don’t buy underwear. It’s just

Ron Lang: mostly,

Jeff Kikel: yeah, until it just falls apart.  We just don’t buy underwear, so I don’t get it.

Ron Lang: Basically. All right.  Last slide here. We always talk  

about the broadening of the market and  making sure that you’re diversified,  

more balanced. This is just a nice little  chart from Financial Fables. I like their  

stuff. Just showing growth versus value and  really, on the World Index, in 2016, was.

The last year since 2009 were value outperformed.  But certainly depending on your risk tolerance,  

how close you are to retirement or  into retirement, you don’t wanna  

be too weighted [00:12:00] to growth. And I  just thought this was a good chart to show.

Jeff Kikel: I love the year, was it 2021 that.  It outperformed well, it just sucked less.

It’s long. It didn’t  outperform, it just sucked less.

Ron Lang: And actually it was  a shift. It was just a shift.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: Because people just, and the smart  people were like, oh, you know what the  

economy will return this and that. We didn’t  know in March, April and May of 2020. Yeah.

Jeff Kikel: Of course

Ron Lang: not.

The last chart I have I thought was  important because. In the last 16,  

17 years, people have just gotten too spoiled  with the market going up week after week,  

month after month. And that is the expectations  of the market when it comes to how often,  

and this is since 1928, I snagged this  off of a LinkedIn post 94% of the years.

If you look at it this way, in the last  97 years, [00:13:00] 94% of the years.  

Expect a 5% pullback. 63% expect at  least one 10% pullback. And again,  

going back to our stats from last year. You don’t  get three years of double digit gains that often,  

and we know what follows that. So expect at some  point there will be a 5% pullback this year.

Maybe a 10% doesn’t mean we may not be higher by  the end of the year, but again, there’s no reason  

to fricking panic on a Yeah. 5% pullback your  thoughts because this just kernels my blood here.

Jeff Kikel: Oh I, and I think it, it’s so funny  with my clients, it’s if things are rolling along,  

it’s all great, but boy, I tell you, any  kind of a pullback, what are we doing?

We’re not doing anything. We might make a  little adjustment in the portfolio on the  

monthly rebalance, but I’m not doing  anything. To try and scramble and do  

these minor, these adjustments and  all that. [00:14:00] It’s just part  

of the deal. And if you want to  play, you gotta be on the field.

You can’t not be there. There’s, and  you just have to statistics, it’s

Ron Lang: there’s all the statistics. If you  

miss the 10 test days in the  market, you know how that is

Jeff Kikel: oh, I know. Yeah. And it’s, I  think that’s a reality if you do miss those,  

just short. Days in the market,  you’re gonna be up a creek.

You’ve gotta stay invested. And, it’s been  interesting to watch I always watch IBD,  

investors Business Daily, and they’ve got this  indicator that shows, what you should be invested,  

whether it’s, a hundred percent in the market,  80 to a hundred percent in the market, or,  

should you start pulling back and, Monday the  market was down and that thing jacked over to.

Yeah. Oh, you should, you should only be  like 60 to 70% in the market. I’m like,  

dude, I’m not managing my portfolio like.  Every day and, adjusting all this stuff  

around. It’s crazy, if it’s a trend. Yeah.  And we’re going in a specific direction,  

if we breach a 50 day moving average and,  that type of [00:15:00] stuff for three days.

Yeah. I’m gonna make some adjustments if we  need to, but Yeah, it’s like these one day or  

even one week crazy moves. Oh my God, we’ve  gotta do all that insane. It’s just nuts.

Ron Lang: No. Can’t get emotional.

Jeff Kikel: No. And that’s why, that’s why the  big boys don’t change their underwear or whatever.

I don’t know what it is, but, okay. I  haven’t heard that expression. Maybe  

they’re wearing two, maybe they’re  wearing two pairs, just in case,

yeah, maybe you gotta double  up on that stuff. All right,  

let me let me share my screen here. Let me  change. Is it showing like me and the screen on?

Ron Lang: Yeah, side by  side. Make your slide bigger.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, hang on. Just let me go back  and change it again. This thing has gotten wonky,  

man. Okay. As a background,  side by side, over the shoulder,  

I just want content only. I don’t want,  I don’t need me on the screen. All right.  

And let me make this a little bit bigger and  go back to [00:16:00] what we’ve got going on.

Yeah. A little easier to see.

Ron Lang: Yep. Thank you.

Jeff Kikel: Okay. All right. So today this week  has been basically nothing when it came to any,  

anything economic wise. Prior to today. It was a  lot of just bill announcements and, a few things  

from some of the Atlanta Fed and things like  that. The good news this morning, of course,  

was GDP, so third quarter, GDP, and this is  the final read, what they call the final read.

So for those of you that are new to  the show, we talk about this all the  

time. When the Fed does or when they do  the GDP. They do the GDP three times,  

they do what they call the reads  three reads during the quarter,  

and this was the final read. So this is the  final actual number for Q3, which was 4.4%.

The economy is growing like [00:17:00]  crazy, I would venture to say, and I’m  

gonna call it here. I am gonna bet money  that we’re gonna be probably closer to 4.6  

to 4.7 by Q4 when we start getting the Q4 numbers,  

because this has been accelerating like crazy. And  the market is firing on all cylinders right now,  

or the economy’s firing on all cylinders,  so it’s moving in the right direction.

This, you figure Q3 two was that. Time  when we’re right in the middle of the  

beginnings of the shutdown and everything  like that may have a little bit of effect.  

The shutdown may have a little effect on Q4 GDP,  

but Q3 we’re rocking. So good news. Another  piece of the pie jobless claims came in 200,000.

Consensus was 2 0 5. I heard two 10  this morning when I was listening  

on the radio. Ongoing claims  about 1.8. This has been good.  

Now the [00:18:00] problem with this all has  been, even though this is good and this is good,  

the hiring side of things has not been too  robust. I think especially the last year  

of the last presidency there was just, Ron  and I would talk about this all the time.

You’d have. Oh yeah, we have 200,000 jobs.  And then you dig into it and it was all  

government hires, so it’s okay, these are  not productive jobs in the economy. They’re,  

they’re just people that were paying  to do jobs within the government.

Ron Lang: It was

Jeff Kikel: the biggest

Ron Lang: piece of the pie.

Jeff Kikel: And that’s gone away.

That pretty much government hiring has really  begun to be focused on very specific areas,  

like in the homeland security  side, but not as broad based.  

We’re seeing some anemic growth and I  think we’ve seen anemic growth for quite  

a while. It was just covered up by the  government hiring in the private sector.

Although there’s good, there’s still  that. Weird disconnect where we’re  

not seeing the hiring side of all this.  [00:19:00] So I would say if we see that,  

we can see GDP even take off  more. What’s your thoughts, Ron?

Ron Lang: I don’t know if the tariffs have  actually gone through the system also. This is Q3.

Yeah. So this is already three, four months  old. There, there’s so many factors to this.  

They’re talking about 5% GDP  growth this year. Like I said,  

the there there’s a disconnect and a  separation between the economy and the  

market. Yeah. And I think that this year, I  think will take us in one of two directions.

We’ll have to see, because I said this before.  If the GDP is so good, why do we need to lower  

the fed rate? Because if you lower the fed rate  that’s putting rocket fuel into the economy,  

which is great short term, but at some point,  rocket fuel burns faster than regular fuel.  

And then we’re gonna get inflation and  then we’re gonna have other problems.

I’ll be [00:20:00] very blunt, I’d rather  just see us go nice and easy. Two and a half,  

3%. Just nice and steady. Just grow no much  because again, too much. You do this right,  

you’re gonna drop. Yeah. And look,  and this is this isn’t just me,  

this is history. Yeah. And this  is stuff that repeats itself.

It doesn’t rhyme.

Jeff Kikel: Yep. I don’t know. Once again, I,  

I. The, I personally think the tariffs  are in the market. We’ve collected a  

lot of ’em. We’ve paid a lot of ’em outside of  the country. I don’t know. I just see. There,  

that belief that if we have growth, we’re  gonna have all kinds of inflation and all that.

I just don’t buy it. I think that’s  old thought and it’s not worked.  

Anytime we’ve seen it in history or, it’s a rarity  that we see growth and then we. See, inflation as  

a result of it, we see inflation. I personally  think a lot of times when the government tries  

to juice the system and throw money in the system,  that’s where we see a lot of [00:21:00] inflation.

But

Ron Lang: yeah. Yeah. I’ll tell you where  my biggest conundrum is, and I said this  

when Biden was president, I’m saying it when  Trump’s there and whoever’s gonna be next.  

If the economy is that good, why? Why  are, car loans defaulting. Why? The  

credit card number keeps, if it’s  that good. That should be going down.

People have more money in their pocket, but  the problem is they’re not paying down their  

debt. They’re spending more. Yeah, they’re  spending more. Yeah. So in me, so for me,  

this is a false sense of everything  is great ’cause people are spending  

money. But they’re spending  money that they don’t have.

That they

Jeff Kikel: don’t have. Yeah.

Ron Lang: So if all that debt was  lower and car loans weren’t spiking,  

also by the way, business  bankruptcies are spiking. So

Jeff Kikel: yeah.

Ron Lang: If it’s so good, why are all those  things trending in the wrong direction?

Jeff Kikel: And I think, I think  a lot of, in the business space,  

one of the things that hurt business,  and this is [00:22:00] from speaking  

from somebody that you know  has had SBA loans and all that.

Most loans in the small business space are  variable loans. And, one of the challenges is, I  

think a lot of people borrowed money in the early,  when rates were real incredibly low and they’re  

paying it off, and all of a sudden now those  rates shot up to nine, 10% in a lot of cases.

And now you get behind and, I, I know in my other  non-financial businesses, we saw. Really last year  

for I would say eight months of last year,  the small business owners we work with just  

weren’t spending any money at all. They were  just completely okay, I can’t spend any money.

So that trickles out into the economy,  into other small businesses that sell to,  

the B2B. Type businesses. You saw that and I  heard that from friends that had businesses  

as well. Everybody was just in shell shock  and didn’t know what to [00:23:00] do, so

Ron Lang: and the, and for  me to put a bow on it, yeah.

Again, this is just the rant again, but. If  you lower interest rates people will borrow  

meaning. They’re gonna keep spending money  they don’t have. Hopefully they can pay it  

off. The second thing is, me, I’ve been ranted  about the credit card interest rate for years.

And I think it’s a great idea to cap it,  but if you don’t cap the credit limit

Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: They’re gonna, they’re gonna  keep spending. Yeah. They’re just, it just,

Jeff Kikel: but I think, yeah. I  honestly think that’s. That’s the,  

although I totally 100% agree that, the credit  card rates out there are usury at this point.

I’ve said this for multiple times on here. It’s  just straight up Us. We used to have usury laws  

in this country that said you couldn’t charge  somebody so much, and they’ve just let you know.  

The government’s just let credit card companies  just do whatever they want and no matter when  

rates were high and then they pulled back down,  they just kept that at where it’s [00:24:00] at.

The unintended consequence that I would imagine is  the people that probably need the credit most are  

gonna get hurt really bad if we move those rates  down, because a lot of these credit card companies  

are just gonna stop issuing credit cards to,  to people who own more credit, which may not be

Ron Lang: a bad thing.

Jeff Kikel: It isn’t a bad thing, but it’s,  you could see them also coming in and saying,  

okay we’re. Not going to extend credit to you. We  might even pull back your credit that you have,  

which you know that I think. Once again, not  necessarily a bad thing, but if you’re used to  

doing that, yeah, that’s a major change and it’s  a major effect trickle down through the economy.

Ron Lang: You heard what the bank’s re tort was  right? To not getting it. They said it’ll hurt  

people’s credit ratings. And I’m thinking  to myself, yeah, if you limit the credit,  

if you limit the credit. That means at a lower  rate, they could still pay the [00:25:00] same  

amount, but now they’re paying down  the the interest and the principal.

It should help their credit

Jeff Kikel: rate. It should improve their credit.

Ron Lang: It’s bs

Jeff Kikel: it’s, once again, what they’ll do is,

Ron Lang: but if double their  credit limit, it doesn’t matter.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. That’s the thing is oh,  okay we’ll, if you do that, then we’ll have  

to pull back credit from people and that will  mean more, more money is, or you’re your, the

Ron Lang: credit already sucks.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah, your credit sucks. ’cause  you were, you’re all the way up there anyhow,  

so it doesn’t matter. But yeah, I mean  at least they have a fighting chance of  

hopefully paying some of that debt down.  The reality is most people won’t. That’s  

why there’s people like us that try and guide  them and point them in the right direction.

Ron Lang: The very last point that they’re  trying to make, which is complete Bs,  

is it’ll hurt access to credit. So you’re  gonna continue to gouge them for 22 to  

26% because that ly you’re doing a  good deed by offering them credit.

Jeff Kikel: Offering them credit,  yeah. Giving them enough credit  

to hang [00:26:00] themselves even  more to where they’re never gonna  

get out of debt at that point,  especially at 28, 30%, whatever.

Yeah I totally agree. It’s one of the few  instances where I’m like, you know what?  

You guys have. You have, you’ve been  allowed to do whatever you wanna do,  

largely because they’re all based in Delaware  and, you’ve had, just ridiculous amounts of  

money that rushes outta Delaware to  other states to pay off politicians.

And I’m like, no, I’m sorry. You’ve. You’ve  done, you’ve outdone yourselves at this point  

and you’ve been allowed to do that. And  I think they do need to be curtailed,  

we need to bring back usury laws.  ’cause it’s absolutely ridiculous. You

Ron Lang: I’m gonna make a quick  prediction and we’ll wrap up.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah.

Ron Lang: It’ll probably be a cap of 15.

Jeff Kikel: Yep. Which

Ron Lang: I’m just saying

Jeff Kikel: from 30 to 15.

Ron Lang: I understand. Yeah, I understand. But  that’s what’s probably gonna end up happening is

Jeff Kikel: probably, yeah.

Ron Lang: The banks are still gonna  [00:27:00] make money at 15. Of course. So  

I have a feeling that’s what’s probably  gonna happen is there will be something,  

’cause he needs to do something before  the midterm for the consumer like this.

Jeff Kikel: Yep.

Ron Lang: And they’ll probably do  a 15% cap. So that’s my prediction.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And that’s true Trump fashion.  He’s gonna, he’s gonna punch you in the face to  

the left and they’re gonna be over here, and  then they end up somewhere in the middle. And,

Ron Lang: but here’s the funny thing about  the 15%. Remember we’ve shown the charts.

Maybe we’ll do it next week. That  was the average for 30 years.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. So you’re just getting back

to

Ron Lang: where it was.

Jeff Kikel: Doesn’t

Ron Lang: matter. That was the average.  Remember it was 14 to 16% for 30 years.

Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Yeah. And then all of a sudden,

Ron Lang: and they made

Jeff Kikel: net up. Oh my  god. Yeah. Oh we couldn’t  

make we can’t even make money at that point.

And, people won’t have credit and No, you know  what, you need to go back to what you were before  

you were making money and people actually  had a, at least a fighting chance of getting  

outta debt at some point. Probably not because  they’ll just keep spending [00:28:00] money.

Ron Lang: Yeah.

Jeff Kikel: I

Ron Lang: hear you. All right.

All

Jeff Kikel: right, brother. Thanks folks for  joining us. Hopefully you enjoy these shows.  

We get our spirited conversations and look forward  to seeing you guys back here the very next time.