July 1st, 2026
All Atlas Clients –
July? Already? Yep! Here we are at the halfway point of the year (again). How are your New Year Resolutions going? Do you even remember them? The mid-year point is also a reflection on the first half of the year, the positive, negative, what worked, what didn’t, the people we include in our circle of life and perhaps those we need to let go. Building wealth over time is great, but life experiences and sharing them with those we care about is more important. We have had terrific, arguably incredible market conditions and returns over the last 3 ½ years, but you should be focused on your portfolio benchmarks and Risk Tolerance, not media headlines or broad index returns which are heavily weighted towards technology. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) just removed Verizon that was in the index for 22 years and replaced it with Google (Alphabet). Why? Is Verizon considered more important as an industrial indicator than Google? Or just to try and make the DJIA more relevant despite it is a Price-Weighted Index (which makes no sense, meaning if it has a higher stock price, it has a greater impact on the index performance) versus a Market Cap-Weighted Index.
We completed our Spring Reviews with clients and several interesting questions and conversations took place. The majority of it surrounded around three(3) topics;
1st Topic – “I’m concerned about the Political discord, extended valuations of stocks and inflation. How will that impact my short-term and long-term plan to retire”. This is a terrific question, and this was asked several different ways but I’m personally less emotional about Political discord, why, because it will always be there, but it has been proven over the decades that Buying or Selling on political fear is a fool’s errand. It is noise to us when it comes to investing as your plan has to look past any and all possible trigger events that could affect your portfolio strategy because any other strategy is “trading, not investing”. Investing is the long-term strategy.
2nd Topic – The clientele that are not using our Financial Planning services ask the following question every year or every other year, “Ron, how much do I need to accumulate to retire”. This question is also asked in a variety of ways, but we typically answer the same way. “How do you want to live in retirement? How much is your anticipated overhead? Do you have planned major expenses in the first 3-5 years of retirement? How is your health and the history of health in your family as they passed the age of 65?” All these factors go into consideration in determining how much you will need to retire. The simple calculation is the following; How much do you need to live on annually without touching principal in your portfolio? For example, if you need $100k per year (without Social Security), multiply by 22 and you will need $2.2M for a portfolio balance. If you are expecting to receive $40k per year in Social Security, then you may only need $1.5M in your portfolio balance. We have some simple retirement calculators that can provide rough numbers, but you can’t live on Social Security alone and future healthcare costs will take a healthy bite out of your annual income. While you are working, take care of all major home improvements and potentially pay off your home before you retire. By doing this while you are still earning income, you can avoid possible budget constraints those first 5-10 years in retirement. One of the top unexpected issues during the first 3-5 years in retirement is spending more than expected. Whether you decided to no longer work or only work part-time, you end up spending more in those first few years by going out for meals more often, spending on travel, the kids and grandkids that you didn’t expect prior to retirement.
3rd Topic – The market is at or near all-time highs, is it overvalued, how much further can it go up, is this a bubble, etc. You can fill in the rest of the uncertainty, fear and unknown when it comes to current market and economic conditions. Recently, Alan Greenspan, who turned 100 back in March, died in June. In 1996 he make a speech about the market conditions and stock prices at that time and describe the overall feeling as “Irrational Exuberance”. The Bull market continued for another 3+ years before a significant 50% pullback in late 2000 through October 2002. Since the last 20% pullback in the market in 2022, we have essentially gone straight up with a few hiccups (not potholes) the market has experienced. The average Bull Market is 6-8 years and the A.I. infrastructure build out is still early. The biggest difference between our current markets and the late 90’s is the top 50-100 companies are making money, some feel like they have their own money printing press, that’s the biggest difference. The late 90’s companies were overleveraged and many/most were losing money. There will be more pullbacks, remember there are at least 3 per year on average and that doesn’t mean when those happen it is the catalyst to a larger pullback, just a reset in many situations.
Facts vs. Feelings
We all wrestle with this, especially when it comes to making a decision we have all heard the following, “are you making a decision with your heart or with your head?”. Meaning, are you using Facts or your Feelings or make a decision?
Example #1 – The market is at all-time highs, we are in a bubble. OR the market is at all-time highs, the market leaders have great earnings and making more capital investments.
Example #2 – The war is never going to end between Ukraine and Russia or Iran and the U.S. and Oil is going back over $120 a barrel. OR The wars will never end and as long as the U.S. keeps extracting oil from domestic soil as the current rate, Oil prices will fluctuate but as the U.S. gets more energy independent, we can control major spikes and significantly higher oil prices.
Example #3 – Our National Debt is over $39T and the interest alone we pay is greater than our Military budget and China will take over the reserve currency in the world and the U.S. Dollar will be worthless. OR our National Debt is out of control and congress does not have the will to control spending and possibly raise taxes to reduce this debt, because Tariffs and a lower dollar may be increasing exports but they are not bringing down our debt enough to reduce interest burden; China wants to be the reserve currency, but for the foreseeable future the U.S. is the strongest economy with the most profitable companies with a multi-national presence that they will continue to do trade in U.S. Dollars and will keep reserve currency status for quite some time.
You can’t control the Facts, but you can control your Feelings. Not worth losing sleep over things you can’t control.
How Old Do You Feel?
This isn’t a milestone birthday year for myself, other than I survived another year around the sun, but found it quite profound to feel your own mortality as many people you grew up with that were on T.V., in the movies, athletes or musicians are slowly passing away. When they do, you probably hadn’t heard their name or seen them in years, possibly a few decades, but when they mention their passing, something happens. You remember something from your childhood or when you were a young adult that resonates with you. Perhaps it was a song, a terrific movie that you remember a distinct scene or a line or the way they carried themselves on a late-night show in an interview that was funny or interesting. Many of you know I’m a big movie guy and love music, especially live music and thought I would share some living legends that you may not be aware of how old they are this year (2026). Mel Brooks just turned 100 in June and inspired me to write this section.
How many of the following names conjure up positive thoughts about a special time in your life?
| Dick Van Dyke – 100
Eva Marie Saint – 102 Clint Eastwood – 96 Barbara Eden – 95 William Shatner – 95 Ringo Starr – 85 Joe Namath – 83 Smokey Robinson – 85 Bob Dylan – 84 Roger Daltrey – 81 Paul McCartney – 84 Dick Butkus – 84 |
Keith Richards – 82
Eric Clapton – 80 Jerry West – 88 Van Morrison – 80 Roger Staubach – 84 Grace Slick – 86 Rod Stewart – 81 Dolly Parton – 80 Tom Jones – 85 Jimmy Page – 82 Mick Jagger – 83 Sandy Koufax – 91 |
Graham Nash – 84
Stephen Stills – 81 Roger Waters – 82 Carl Yastrzemski – 87 Diana Ross – 81 Dionne Warwick – 85 John Fogerty – 80 Pete Townshend – 80 Neil Young – 80 Willie Nelson – 93 Reggie Jackson – 80 Steve Miller – 81 |
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Enjoy the rest of the summer, find some downtime for yourself and spend time with your family and friends.
As always, please reach out to share your thoughts. Be safe and healthy!
With Best Wishes,
Ronald E. Lang, Principal and Chief Investment Officer
Atlas Wealth Management, LLC