Year-End Predictions & Market Review: 2024 Insights with Jeff and Ron Welcome to the final Cents of Things show of the year! Join Jeff and Ron as they review their predictions from last year, share their thoughts on the upcoming year, and analyze the current market trends. This special episode covers a wide range of topics, including the resilience of the economy, sector performance, political impacts on markets, and the potential for earnings growth in 2024. Don’t miss their insights on healthcare, technology, consumer discretionary, and more. Plus, they discuss the festive spirit of the season and reflect on the future outlook. Stay tuned for their accurate predictions and market strategy tips!
00:00 Introduction and Show Overview 00:52 Reflecting on the Past Year 02:08 Market Predictions and Economic Insights 02:55 Holiday Cheer and Festivus Fun 03:54 Stock Market Analysis and Predictions 04:59 Economic Surprises and Employment Resilience 12:51 Sector Performance and Predictions 21:25 Global Weapon Restocking: A Booming Trade 21:35 Consumer Discretionary: Spending Trends 23:30 Material Sector Predictions for Next Year 24:38 Market Strategists’ Predictions and Adjustments 26:12 Economic Sentiments and Market Analysis 30:33 Sector Performance and Investment Strategies 37:01 Fed Policies and Economic Outlook 38:44 Closing Remarks and Future Predictions
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction and Show Overview
good morning sense of things it’s Jeff and Ron here for the last sense of thing
show of the Year this is our it’s either we’ll call it our predictions or
Contrition show talking about our predictions for the year as well as what
we’re predicting for next year and talking a little bit about what’s going on in the market so that’s what we’re
going to cover today so stay tuned and we will be back on in just a
second hey everybody welcome to the show Ron how you doing my friend morning good
Reflecting on the Past Year
morning I can’t believe this is our last show and twisted my arm and put me in a headlock almost two years ago to
convince me to do the show so it’s been fun I it’s something I didn’t expect I’ve been enjoying it and
getting good feedback and actually this is Believe It or Not despite all the fun we’ve had over the last 18 plus months
actually longer than that I love this the best because you put everything together for the year and then you think
about next year and what not necessar what went wrong but what didn’t we expect and yeah what we got right it’s
so unpredictable no crystal ball no magic gate ball yeah I I think for me it’s the first time I’d ever done
anything like this doing this kind of prediction stuff because I typically don’t but I look at it as this is It’s a
way to share with my clients and and the audience my thoughts on this and I think
it’s the good part for you and I it’s our own unique thoughts and ideas and
our coverage that we have yeah but don’t forget you got clients asking you all the time what do you think’s going to
happen where do you think it’s going and we have an IDE idea typically on most
years if you say up you’re going to be right 75% of the time there’s always concerns there’s always headwinds M yeah
Market Predictions and Economic Insights
and I think everybody has this kind of belief oh next year is gonna be amazing but there’s a lot of I think you’re
already seeing it with this whole thing going on with the the debt ceiling and everything else it’s just not
everybody’s on Kumbaya mode and we have infighting yeah you got infighting
within the the the conservative side of the house and everything else and it’s yeah this whole is yes things are going
to move somewhat quickly next year but don’t put it past Congress to completely screw that up and and be fighting into
of course not of course not all right you ready long ways to go all right let’s why don’t we kick off and where
are we gonna start why not just start with without being any religiously religiously
specific why not just wish everybody a happy festiv us everybody I think that’s
Holiday Cheer and Festivus Fun
completely right I cannot wait for the Airing of Grievances we do have the we
do have the Festivus poll already set up in the office and at
home absolutely and let’s not forget George’s portrait of happy
Festivus and just because we need to combine a couple of things with Festivus
and of course Al past to wish happy festiv us to the rest of us good God
and why not and why not I buddy elf just needs to go away man I talked about elf the last couple of times and look
there’s going to be two Staples over the next week it’s going to be a Christmas story as we both know and it’s certainly
going to be elf at any point so why not why not and Christmas Vacation do not forget that absolutely oh absolutely all
good all good all right here we go so I brought this slide up probably about a
Stock Market Analysis and Predictions
month ago 314 research does a really good job and when they brought this up I don’t even think the S&P had hit 6,000
yet but this is 7,000 by the end of 2020s by by 2026 So within the next year
when we get to all the price targets and have all of our fun F this was October 14 this is not just realistic but on the
top end or on the top average of most of the target so let’s get into it so last
year you and I were way off so here we are as at the end of the close yesterday which we had a 3% down day yesterday 58
you were the closest so guess what the price is right for you
I yeah I was only off by about 12% but other than that so why don’t we just I’ll let you
make a quick comment I’ll make a quick comment you remember why you said the high-end was
5262 and what shocked you the most that we’re at 5872 I the way I looked at it was going
Economic Surprises and Employment Resilience
into this last year knowing that we were going to be in a presidential election
and knowing that it was going to be a defecation show to say it the least I
truly expected and I truly expected the economy to start giving up a little bit what has shocked me about the economy
and and I think we’ve both had this conversation over the last couple of the last couple of shows what has shocked me
is the resilience of employment in this country people are not in a good
position when it comes to their finances right now I think part of this was that
we had historic during the pandemic we had historic savings because the government was throwing money at us like
every couple months we’d get a check from the government for Uncle Joe’s you know little check from the government or
whatever and all of a sudden we had all this extra money that had been saved up we weren’t traveling and everything else
I think people built up nice savings that they’ve rapidly depleted over the last three years and now they’re working
into credit cards but they still have jobs and they’re still able to pay the bills the retail numbers are through the
roof we’re spending go yeah it’s just crazy so that I think is the biggest surprise for me I expected a lot less my
be case was more Rosy than yours but I expected to be closer to the base case
this year and never thought my bullish case would be anywhere close yeah and I think what I was
looking at was around an 8 to a 10% rise which was around the average and we’ll
talk about that in a minute for next year but we just saw so many
damn yeah look about a year ago that hey if you take a look at my bear case that
was almost a 15% pullback 20% pullback yeah and a lot of these Market
strategies that they out and said look we were wrong this year but it doesn’t mean that data was wrong and and I get
that and that’s a strong argument yeah because look employment was strong that’s the
number one factor I 100% agree with you because people have money they’re spending they have paychecks so they’re
at least able to pay off the minimum Ballance but credit card carryover debt from month to month is 1.2 trillion yeah
and Rising yeah oh not it’s not going down and the average interest rate on
that is now above 22% I think it’s closer to 24% so these Banks and credit cards know
something not extending credit lines and I know this is a separate conversation so that kind of went into my whole
theory that I’d rather be more conservative to the upside but if I back we pulled back so yeah even though we
hit 6100 in the last week we’re at 5872 and we got a little bit of an upour so
far I’m looking at around a 10% upside 8 to 10% upside but the interesting thing
is that many of the market strategist are looking at a 14 or 15% upside in
earnings next year now depending on where the 10year and the interest rates
are and wherever that the earnings May get affected because we have so many
multinational companies if the dollar goes up we’re not going to be exporting
as much so I thought 10% was about right the base case 68% whenever terrific but
I actually took a uh a much more of a right turn on the barcase because I’m thinking if we’re down we’re going to be
down and I’m looking at 15 to 20% on the down side so that’s why I was much more
the floor’s got to drop if the floor’s going to drop out the floor’s going to drop out and even though everybody’s
excited about less regulation and whatever we’ll talk about them when we get to the sectors I just is if there’s
a geopolitical incident or if one of these freaking cracks finally separates
you know enough that I think the downside is going to be more precipitous so that was how I’m defending my numbers
how about your numbers for my numbers for next year I looked at and once again we’ll cover this in some of the sector
pieces of it but I look at two major factors affecting the world next year
one is the red use regulations I think are going to help out a lot especially
in certain industry in the finance industry and the banking industry is a great example of this the multi-billions
of dollars that are spent just on compliance on some of these things some
of that can get removed that’s just bottom line for these companies the other piece of it is tax reform and even
if nothing changes it’s a good thing because otherwise January 2026 it goes through
the roof back up again and I think we have a lot yeah they’re going to have to
get they will but once again I don’t put it past okay we’ve got all Republican
across the board I don’t put it past them to be complete and utter doofuses
and fight infighting and all this because you have some people that basically they want the government to
spend no money and you have people that are like we have to be more practical about this and there’s somebody and
there’s very little in between very little in the middle that I think we’re going to see some
infighting and where we would hope that we got some tax work done early in the
year I think as they’re doing with the debt ceiling right now they don’t do
anything until the dead lines looming and then they just scramble around at the last second regardless of what side
is in charge historically when one political party y controls all
three the Market doesn’t do as well yeah yeah so I I realize people think the
infamous This Time It’s Different time it’s different but historically if
you’re playing the odds and we’re not Traders and we’re not trading our clients money historically things go
down and look we’ve had two double digit years and I just wrote about this in my newsletter for uh next quarter that if
we have three up double digit years the fourth year is typically not a good year
and we saw that in 20202 yeah we shall see yeah and I so the only thing I will
say that is different this time around is although we have a president who’s
having another term it is completely different from what we’ve ever experienced because typically that
second term the president kind of Coast phones it in a little bit and you’ve got
a president coming back in who knows the job and can get things started quick and
it seems like he’s he’s getting some things started quick and he’s got energy going into this for and he’s got
basically just four years to do it so I think that from my perspective that’s what gave me a little bit more feeling
of positive for this year so My Cas is my ba my bare case is that we’re only up
four or five perent for the year my bull case is somewhere around 17 to
18% yeah my case is around 12 my my cases across the board are that we will
have a positive year it’s just I don’t know how much at that point I I don’t
know what to expect going into this like I said there’s a lot of stuff that has to happen this next year and it’s going
to be interesting to see I gotcha okay let’s move on so I’ll let you defend
Sector Performance and Predictions
your sectors to avoid and then we’ll talk about ones to consider yeah mine utility although we’re going to get less
restrictions and things like that I think there’s a lot of infrastructure
build at a hell of a year in utilities huh had a hell of a year in utilities oh
it was an amazing year and it’s largely because of interest rates dropping there’s a lot of buildout that has to
happen in the utilities field that is going to cost a lot of money I’ve always been a a big fan of next era energy it’s
it had been a core position in our portfolios and it did horribly this last
year largely because they’re in Florida and Georgia so they’ve got a ton of
rebuild that they have to do but the amount of money that is going to have to be spent over the next 10 years to
rebuild our electric grid to be able to withstand the power of AI is insane I
was just listening I picked up breakfast and I was listening and they were talking about there’s multiple start in
the nuclear space to build these little small nuclear reactors specifically for
data centers and that buil they haven’t built a new nuclear plant from scratch
in over 30 35 years something like that yeah yeah I think comman Peak was one of the last ones here in Texas when
basically kamanche Peak runs 90% of North Texas in one plant so that’s a ma
all of Dallas Fort Worth all of basically North Texas is Run by One new plan yeah and that I think that one went
online when I was probably in high scho beginning of high
school so like 83 something like that how about Consumer Staples why don’t you like that next year I really don’t like
it because I think we’re still going to have I I think people are still going to
want toothpaste and all that but I think it’s going to be come an after run I I think it’s going to be one of those ones
that people just don’t focus on and they focus on other areas in the market okay
all right so I have never been an energy bul ever is when clients come to me I
say there there’s three things that I don’t get involved in and I don’t recommend one of them is energy because
it’s too Peg to oil and if you look at oil it’s only been in a downslide for the last couple of years but if you take
a look and we do have a chart on this a little bit later about the sector performance over the last 15 years on
average energy is in the bottom half of the performers every single year and I
realize a lot of these energy companies are Diversified in natural gas and other
things I just don’t see energy doing well think about this too and I’ll move on look at everything that’s going on in
the world between China Russia the Middle East and oil is not over a 100
bucks it’s around $70 a barrel yeah is that now I know we’ve been producing more in the United States I just look at
this sector to avoid now you mentioned next Tera energy not as a recommendation but just to look at I sure some of the
energy companies will do very well on more on the electrical side if you want to consider them I know it’s a utility
some of these energy companies and utilities play off of each other yeah so that’s why I don’t like that real estate
now real estate shocked the hell out of me the last couple of years with the
homebuilders but you know what I didn’t realize and I learned pretty quickly is a lot of the home builders do their own
financing so they were able to control and offer some unbelievable incentives
to get their houses sold I don’t think I think that run is over for a little
while because if you look at it Fed rate cut three times this year a total of one
full basis point and the 30-year fix didn’t move
all that much this year if you look on the average the 10 year is now over 4
five headed to five so why is why is the Fed rate going down and the 10year going
up right they should be a little bit more correlated but I think there there but that’ll tell you still how much fear
there is in the market in the world and then financials I am bucking the trend here because a lot of Market strategist
love financials listen oh I I I think the banking
industry which is another one that I do not invest in is a huge black they’re all about you’ve heard this
before Nim n net interest margin guess what they couldn’t make a darn Penny on
that for 10 years where interest rates were at zero and now that interest rates
flew up in the last couple years are still not making money right they’re making money on all the other banking
services that are out there not only that too but I saw a great chart by Carter Braxton word looking since the
financial crisis the banking SE sector the money centers are one of the worst
performing sectors relative to the S&P for the last 15 years so even if they
have a good year next year who cares they’ve underperformed the market longwinded way of saying I am going
against because a lot of people like financials going year I do not okay how
about your sectors to consider we’re similar on a couple so I’ll let you talk
about your yeah well I’ll tell you what you do one I’ll do one okay I why I take the first one Healthcare healthc care
was absolutely atrocious this year I expect the first half of next year for
healthc care to be specifically the healthcare companies and the pharmacy
benefit man or Pharmacy benefit uh whatever they are I think they’re going
to struggle a little bit next year because the new president coming in as
he’s extremely focused on this and I’m looking at 2016 as an example he was
going to come in and do a whole bunch of stuff with the Congress about Obamacare
and everything else and nothing really got done with that so if you looked at the 2016 numbers the first half of the
year were terrible and then it took off so I’m playing the odds on that that I
think that’s going to continue I think it’s probably going to repeat itself from that position
technology we are in a forc Industrial Revolution with AI and everything else
so I still think technology is going to be good it may shift around and the
players May shift around a little bit we saw this what two weeks ago with
alphabet coming out with a chip that literally is the it’s what this thing
can do it can produce or it can handle calculations on such a level that it
even could put some issues into cryptocurrency and things like that because it can analyze data so fast it
can break those encryptions which is not a good thing right we’re a generation away from that being usable all right
real quick let me go back and then we’ll go back and forth so I agree with you on Healthcare and biotech but my reasons
are a little bit different first of all it’s been an underperforming sector the last two years and we have the chart
will show in a little bit when it has under for for one year and definitely two years it usually snaps up pretty
quick but I have two other big reasons number one healthc care is a political football he just came out of a very
contentious political season and of course Healthcare was right in the crosshairs number two because of the
admin prior Administration and because of interest rates m& was not even in first gear it was at
a snail’s pace because of either regular potential regulation where the cost of borrowing was so high typically when m&a
precipitously ticks up the healthc care sector is absolutely one of the stals
there and could go up so I I believe because of those reasons forget about
new drugs you know all this other great stuff I think they’ll do very well I
like defense also because we’re not going to stop spending on defense all the hot spots in the world that we from
Global Weapon Restocking: A Booming Trade
providing weapons all to be restocked this has actually been a great trade in the last year and I think we’ll continue
doing well I’ll let you do consumer discretionary and I’ll wrap up yeah consumer discretionary I just feel like
Consumer Discretionary: Spending Trends
it yeah I’m just not going to bet against the consumer right now the consumer is still powerful is still
going even if the low end of the economy is struggling some I think with tax
regulation reduced taxes the upper end of the the upper middle class to Rich
are spending money like it’s gone out of style they’re spending money on vacations they’re spending money on
cruises I’m a big fan of Royal Caribbean I watch it very carefully and I listen
to their conference call cruise lines have been taken off no pun unreal Cru how about that yeah they did
horrendously bad during the pandemic of course and I think some of that was a makeup but I think that kind of package
tourism and the the bigger boats the more choices that you have that’s just a
really good example of you know how the consumer is continuing to spend on the
top end and I don’t really see that changing anytime soon I agree with you because that was my bonus sector yep I
only say watch I’m not I don’t have a I have a conviction but not a strong conviction for it for all the same
reasons that you have because if those cracks do not widen next year you’re
100% correct people are going to continue to spend and spend wisely now I don’t know about you but I’ve gone to
several business events and some dinners with friends some dinners with clients
now I know it’s holiday season but I’m going back to even the end of October the restaurants are full yeah I’m not a
I’m not a drinker when I go out but the bars are full before dinner there are
wine bottles on tables out here it’s get your gats Beyond baby it’s Animal
Material Sector Predictions for Next Year
Spirits people are spending money and I don’t think they even give it I don’t even think they look at the check when
it hits the table Yeah so I know this is different in certain areas but people are spending so that’s why I agree with
you materials I gotta tell you this would not have been one that came off
the top of my head or through any research I actually been reading articles and looking at trending the
performance of certain sectors and this has actually been a sector that is not only underperformed but some of the
market strategies that I follow really believe next year will be a good year for materials because of either
infrastructure build or for as interest rates come down expansion in the manufacturing sector the material sector
should do very well so I thought that was and also infrastructure too so I thought that was uh pretty good I don’t
know if you wanted to add anything to yeah I I think it could be I I it just wouldn’t have been one of my top I I
think it’ll be in the middle yeah someplace I I think it will do better than it has been doing but I I I don’t
think it’s going to be one of the top sectors for this next year okay all right so we have a couple other interesting things so here are now of
Market Strategists’ Predictions and Adjustments
course subject to change mid year with these market so here we are uh all the
top this isn’t all but this is all the top Banks money Centers Market
strategist the average is 6721 which is the top end of my average and
around your base case I thought this was pretty interesting because I couldn’t find a slide I should have I should have
done a little more research into we did this last year and I believe the average
highend was 4 it was 6,500 by the end of I’m sorry um 6,100 for this before they
increased it mid year which I hate when they do that look you’re right yeah no
twice this year they increased in April May they did it again in September and October I’m thinking to myself no data
changes we’re not dumb and least at least you and I are willing to admit our failures and say you know what hey I
totally underestimated but they got to keep in there look some of these anos I’m sure they might have been getting
cow prodded by the hey you better increase the price Target you keep your price Target where they’re at people
might not put their money on the sideline in there I you always know that Chinese wall does not exist I never
believed in it people are whispering in each other’s ears like hey we got to get in the news if you increase your price
target people are going to bring our money here because of all your bookcase now we said this a million times I’ve
said it a few times I said it in most of my client meetings I can give you 10
Economic Sentiments and Market Analysis
reason 10 good reasons why the market is near all-time Highs but you and I can give them a 100
reasons why it should be 10 to 20% lower yeah right and it’s not because we’re
Perma Bears it’s not because we just don’t want to admit it these are we
there’s a legit reasons so we’ll see but I don’t know if there was anything that stood out to you here what stands out to
me most is Wells Fargo 7,7 how did you come up with that
idiotic number 707 had to be different because it wasn’t 706 and we don’t think
it’s going to go as high as 708 so it’s 707 it it’s funny because we know
somewhere midy year if we have a hell of a good year they’re going to pull the same BS that they’ve been pulling for
the last several years oh look how close we were at the end of the year yeah because you changed it three times
during the year you know what take your lumps and say I don’t think it got that far D the these are the group this group
of people though are also saying 14 to 15% increase in earnings next year yeah
that’s how they’re aggregating a lot of the numbers yeah that’s aggressive yeah
it’s very it’s going to take a year for them to do any and despite the fact they have all three branches it’s gonna take
them a year nothing happens fast in in Washington even when they have all three
it’s going to take a so that means any real policy changes isn’t going to happen in 2026 yeah yeah yes I think it is I think
some of it is just straight up animal spirit people feel like we’re turning a
corner whatever it is I don’t know a lot of it’s going to depend on if the whole
media thing goes crazy like they usually do I I don’t know it’s just there’s
something that’s a different feeling to me right now and it’s not because I’m a conservative or whatever it’s just
there’s a different feeling in the country a little less
hopelessness than I think I’ve felt in a long time and that’s not just me I’m
just saying just feels like there’s a little less hopelessness something that
I maybe it’s something weird or whatever but the interesting thing is the best
selling book this year on Amazon is the
Bible I I don’t get it I I don’t I don’t get I’m not saying this from being
religious or anything like that I’m just saying there’s something about the hope that people feel yeah that we’re an
amazing country when we’re all or most of us are pulling in the right direction I’m a Centrist and I have clients on
both sides yep the ones that let’s just say did not vote for the current Administration they feel like their
portfolios will do well but the country is not going to get better yeah now obviously it would have been the reverse
of that went the other way but at the end of the day you got to stay focused on the future you still got to wake up
in the morning all right well yeah what I’m hoping is we finally get through this like complete completely separate
everybody is out for themselves and their own ideals and hopefully we can start to agree on some stuff hopefully
we become less polarized I hear exactly all right so I thought this was interesting I just wanted to go through
this quickly I believe I got this off of yeah it is but it’s off of Bloomberg off their website yeah this is interesting
so the blue line is the strategist price startet okay cor and the orange line I
love this color combination is the market you can see over time and this the one main thing I wanted to point out
was the end of 2021 yeah because the end of 2021 this was three straight years of
double digigit gain and look where the strategists were yeah they were that far
above it and of course we were down of course they all recalibrated by the end of the year right so I just find this to
be interesting because this is just media fodder and it’s frustrating but
obviously we got to talk about it this is very quickly PE ratios which I’m I’m
Sector Performance and Investment Strategies
a big PEG ratio Peg price earnings to growth expectations I think that’s a
great indicator of Buy sell signals with a lot of uh companies and here we are
we’re the highest since October 2020 but even if you just go back now this isn’t
any indicator of anything other than hey maybe we’re a little over valued cu the last time we were up this level we
pulled back 22% not that we couldn’t go up another 51% here but I think this is
just very interesting I think we are not in that area on the low end or breaching
that area of potentially overvalued what are your thoughts so here’s the other side of that you have
the price side but you have the earning side so if the estimates are right of let’s say 14% earnings yeah we could be
up here it could yeah it could not necessarily it could go down because you have earnings up and prices not
necessarily go up as much it could be that or it could just continue to ride along the path that it’s on right now
but I also heard something very interesting if our dollar continues to rise against other currency we may get a
14 to 15% increase in earnings based on the US dollar but net will be less
because of all the multinational businesses they’re going to have 14 to 15% upside because of curing sea risk
and that makes the case for small to Mid siiz companies because they tend not to
be as domestic in those cases they have underperformed significantly in this
last year really last three years you’ve seen small to midsize companies
massively underperform so I think there’s a case to say that we could see
more growth and the model that I use keeps flagging small to midcaps as the
place to be it’s been a it’s been a not so good trade this last four to five
months because it’s just like fits and starts it does well and then something happens like yesterday the FED chairman
saying we’re going to be cautious and then of course the market goes and blows up I hear you all right this is one of
my favorites I look at this probably every quarter definitely at the end of the year yeah this really in my opinion
gives you the DNA of the market yeah look at it year by year and just to prove my point this is
energy yep it Shi an under now yes was it up in 2122 yeah but if you’re looking
at a five to a 10 year investable timeline why would you go into energy
and I prove this to clients you know in charts every single year um but you know
if you take a look right Healthcare last year healthc care this year political football that’s why I’m looking at
upside how often do you see utilities up here right it doesn’t happen that often they’re usually in the bottom half and
usually the only time that they do really well like this is when you reach a peak interest rate and then interest
rates start coming down because they pay dividends and that’s typically the only reason that they go up at that point or
that they’re up towards the top yeah and I know technology was a big sector for you next year and you know typically in
down or sluggish years Tech techology is always sluggish but if the market is typically up 70 to 75% of the time your
techn the technology sector is going to be in the top third top half every single year for those years I don’t
think there’s going to be one year the market is going to be up you know double digit that information Technologies is
not going to be in the top third top half yep and of course real estate for as good of a year as it’s had the last
couple of years and still in the bottom half in performers MH so this is one of
my favorite charts yeah I always love this one because it like I said you can make the case visually for people when
they’re we’re GNA start drill baby Drilling and that means energy should do well and it’s not so
much well here’s the crazy thing about last year because you can’t lie with facts right you can’t you could twist
facts but you can’t lie with facts last year 70% of the S&P 500 moved to the
upside was by the top 10 stock yep to prove that point last year
Information Technology was up 57.8% MH you had two sectors negative
yeah so where’s the there was no breath last year the breath came back this year we saw that in the second half than the
first half but even so this is why you need to be Diversified unless your
horizon line is 10 20 years out you can stay in the momentum stuff but you got to be
and I think if you look at yeah if you look at some of those numbers too the S&P 500 the white piece there up
22% the problem is that now information technology of the S&P 500 information
technology is 40 or 50% about 35% of the index now so what happens with
information technology affects almost everything else here’s the crazy thing D just look at the bottom here because
this is just aggregating the information for 15 years yeah so takes a look the average on the annual the best year and
the worst year right so obviously you know technology over the last 15 years
on average has been up 21% which is just a sick number in general right yeah
Health Care on average has been up 13.6 and you got consumer discretionary
16.79% reform better than if reform better than more than half of the
average sectors or half of the sectors with their performance each year yeah
just invested in just the index itself something to think about when you’re
looking to put everything together yeah awesome I think I’m comfortable with
my my best guesses for next year I guess the best way to put it the predictions I
think we will have a good year I think it’s not going to just necessarily be straight up I think it could be a little
Fed Policies and Economic Outlook
bit all over the fence a little bit this next year because with whenever the FED decides they want to drop interest rates
we know that they’re probably only going to do two this next year that’s gone that’s what they said yeah that’s gone
down from four earlier this year that they said who knows I think the FED
chairman saying they’re cautious about this I I think they’ve got to see what
you know the new administration’s policies are and everything else and how that’s having an effect on inflation and
employment and everything else I would say I would expect more if we start to see employment start to implode a little
bit going into this next year and the one thing that did come out in the the press conference yesterday and a lot of
the market strategists have been saying it for a while but now you’re heard it from the FED what did they say the labor
market has been cooling doesn’t mean it’s been getting hor or Worse cooling
means it’s not as hot it’s been stagnant it’s been slightly ticking up meaning it’s trending in the wrong direction but
no precipitous jumps sure yeah and we’ve seen a couple of inflation numbers Spike
up a little bit but nothing to go oh my God it’s ridiculously off the charts
numbers I would expect for them to be quiet for a pretty good chunk of next year maybe in the later half of the year
we’ll see some interest rate Cuts once they get a handle on new new this is recorded we’re on record it’s got to
come back what that’s fine come back whatever I don’t know well you know what
we we’ll revisit it again in July or June yeah when we adjust our price targets up in July or June for you know
the rest of the year at that point folks thank you for joining us thank you for watching over the last couple years this
Closing Remarks and Future Predictions
is a show number 85 that we’re finishing 2024 with we have had just a blast doing
the show Ron I love him like a brother so it it gives me an excuse to talk to him every week anyhow and you just get
to hear our conversations and and hopefully participate in which means make sure you subscribe to the channel
give us an upvote and give us some comments you guys have been fun I’ve been having some back and forth comments
back and forth with you guys online and really having a good time with that so thanks a lot we’ll see you in
2025 and of course our predictions are going to be absolutely correct for next year