TRANSCRIPT
[00:00:00] Jeff Kikel: Hello, Sense of Things audience. It’s Jeff and Ron here once again for another weekly Sense of Things show. Ron, how you doing, my friend? Good morning,
Jeff. I’m enjoying the fall weather. Oh, I know. I bet it’s great mornings for you right now. Oh,
it’s a high 50s, 60s. Love it. It’s back there, man. Jeff Kikel: I got it. I walked out in shorts yesterday morning and I was like,
I don’t even want to be wearing shorts right now. It’s so friggin humid, but it’s we’re supposed to get a cold front through today. So we’ll actually be in that
like fifties in the morning, which I love. No, nice. I know there’s already been snow, up in the upper Midwest and in New York and upstate New York and yeah, I don’t miss it.
Jeff Kikel: My friend when do you guys start seeing it up in the higher elevations? And Oh, up in Flagstaff in the start getting some
snow i [00:01:00] or so. I know Flagstaff h of snow last year. S
Jeff Kikel: don’t understand when they there are surfing ski sho Surf and ski. Yeah,
what are you talking about? I’m like you got to realize there are some huge lakes here Yeah that you could do a lot of water sports on and you go two hours north you
go skiing in the winter mountains Yeah So you get the most of all in all three worlds because then you get the nice warmer weather When you’re here in the phoenix, valley area.
Jeff Kikel: So but Surf and ski. What are you talking about? Yeah, Havasu is like its own ocean in there. Yeah. Oh yeah. And it’s funny, like Havasu, if you
don’t have a truck. And or a boat like you don’t belong in Lake. Yeah, you’re just raw. Yeah, it’s
just wrong for you to be here. Somebody I know that lives there calls it the redneck Riviera.
Jeff Kikel: I love it. It’s [00:02:00] nice. It’s interesting. If you’ve never been to Lake Havasu, it has the London Bridge, which a lot of people are not aware of. Long story short,
a gentleman, I think his name was Bacala the London was, during the restructuring and rebuilding of London after post-war, they sold the
London Bridge and he literally numbered every brick, brought it over, rebuilt it.
Jeff Kikel: Obviously it came up to be almost three times the cost and everything else, but it’s pretty amazing when you check it out. It’s a lot bigger than I thought. But they say,
yeah, they saved a part of history that would have, just been thrown away at that point. So it’s awesome. And he puts it in the middle of the freaking desert.
Jeff Kikel: Why did Britain, why did, why did the UK let, a non UK person by the bridge? And number two, why did this person pick Lake Havasu?
Because Lake Havasu would not be Lake Havasu if it wasn’t for the London Bridge. That’s the centerpiece. Yeah. Wasn’t he like a, didn’t he own like a hotel or something like that?
Jeff Kikel: And so it was like a way to get people to go out to the middle of nowhere out there. I [00:03:00] forget what, yeah, you could be right. I’m not a hundred percent sure the
complete, it was an interesting story. If somebody wants to look it up on Wikipedia and read it, I got to tell you, it is very interesting, but it was just basically a way of like you build it.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, they will come. Yeah. So that was the situation. It’s a lot of people don’t even know about it. It’s funny. Like I said, it’s the most famous
bridge just for the simple fact of a silly song that people used to sing when we were all kids and he ends up slapping it out there in the middle of the desert, which is awesome.
Jeff Kikel: Literally, it’s and it’s right on the border of California. Speaking of redneck Ramiro you’ve got a couple of Florida man stories, right? Yeah,
absolutely. Hey, every now and then we just have to do this just to remind ourselves
that we are better than the average person that’s in the United States. Jeff Kikel: So here we go. Florida man wax acquaintance with hatchet during argument
over a spilled beer. I’m sure this could happen anywhere in the United States. Yeah,
it’s normal every place. I live in Texas and this [00:04:00] could happen, but it’s interesting that I, he was axing him a question and that’s what ended up happening.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. But here’s my funny part. Sentence number two, it sparked an argument and he blamed the victim. He provoked me to whack him with a hatchet whack. Yeah. I,
he spilled my beer. I spilled beer. But he hit him multiple times. He didn’t die though. obviously,
he didn’t go for the head. I and I like that he had style about it though, because he grabbed a silver hatchet with a blue handle.
Jeff Kikel: On top of it, it wasn’t just some rusty thing in the garage. Hey, listen, this might’ve been a family heirloom passed down from generation to generation. Clearly see it. I
always have an ax laying around the house, just in case somebody spills my beer, that’s all I’m
saying. Yep. And because we missed the last two weeks of podcast, we got a double shot Thursday.
Jeff Kikel: So we have one other story. Florida man breaks into woman’s house, sits on [00:05:00] her couch and makes an unusual request. Okay. All he wanted
was some water and something to smoke. Okay I think he was probably smoking something before he got there is what I’m thinking. He might’ve been doing several things before he got there.
Jeff Kikel: But it’s funny you read, of course, these are professional headline writers. So you’re thinking to yourself, what was
this unusual request? I must read the article. He just wanted some water and something to smoke. I,
is that unreasonable? I just love it. And can I get a hatchet while you’re at it?
Jeff Kikel: Just the same guy. Maybe he went out later after he smoked and whacked the guy. We don’t know. Now I need water. Cause I didn’t have
my beer anymore. So this could be just a continuation, just like our guy with the hamster wheel. Yeah. We know that we need our fill of this every now and then.
Jeff Kikel: There’s just no doubt about it. Oh, my God. All right. What do you got for us? Let’s jump in. Economic stuff. It was it was in a massively quiet week on
the economic front. I [00:06:00] think a couple of the things if y’all do or don’t
go to this or if you want to track what’s going on in the economy a great place to go. Jeff Kikel: And this is the place I go to on a regular basis is the economy calendar. So
you just go to economy dot com. You go to the calendar and it brings up everything that’s
going on that week. So if you want just a quick hit of, hey, just what’s going on, what’s maybe
affecting the markets this week. There was very little economic data and the economic data that
did come out, I think the probably the most consequential one this week was jobless claims.
Jeff Kikel: So if you click on that, it brings up these little charts. So you guys have seen these little charts before, on here, it’ll say here’s what
it was prior. Here’s what they revised it to, which is common right now is it seems
like they’re revising them up. every month. Now, I don’t know if that’s true or not.
Jeff Kikel: Then you get the consensus and then the range of that consensus, which [00:07:00] actually for once we’re on is somewhat tight usually you can drive
a truck 15 000. That’s very tight Yeah, and we came in exactly, you know along the lines
with consensus this week, 217k Of jobless claims that number has been creeping up,
and I think we’ve discussed this before I don’t know how much of, like all these strikes,
both UAW sag, aft, SAG aftra I don’t know how many of those, I would say SAG AFTRA for sure has
probably had some effect on these numbers rising because they, they’ve been out for 130 days now.
Jeff Kikel: And actually I was watching a couple of interviews with some economists that just dig down into the recesses of some of these numbers and they were talking about,
don’t hold me. I think it was either 34 or 35 percent of the new jobs were in
government. They weren’t even in the private sector and the unemployment rate ticked up.
Jeff Kikel: The number was at a low of three, [00:08:00] four, which is just unheard of. We’re now at three, nine. And I think 4. 5 was like
the number people were looking at. If we get there. We’re looking at either a significant pullback in the economy and or a recession. So we’re ticking up and look,
the jet, the Fed is doing its job, whether you like them or not, but they are doing its job.
Jeff Kikel: Inflation has been coming down a little bit, but the private sector numbers are
not looking good. No, they’re not. And I think that the interesting thing is everybody looks at,
oh the, the, or the inflation rates going down, people are still hurting massively because.
Jeff Kikel: That inflation rate going up is just year over year. It’s not year over many years. And we’ve seen a, we saw a huge spike,
in 2022 in the in inflation. And those are real dollars that are still hurting people at
this point. So if you have Any extra inflation on top, it puts a pretty good strain on them.
Jeff Kikel: And, I think as [00:09:00] jobless claims continue to go up, you start to see the hiring slow down. I agree with you on, I think this is a time period where it’s okay, when is
the, when is it going to break the back of the consumer? Are we going to see it at this Christmas or is it going to be another summer of 22, 2023, where everybody does the blowout and says.
Jeff Kikel: Screw it. I’m putting it all on my credit. wE talked about that to ad nauseum
and as a little tease, I think I have the canary in the coal mine. A little bit later when I go,
I got a couple more slides to go through because everything that you’re saying all leads to,
Hey what do we really need to look at to know, is the damn break in our, where are the cracks in the ice, which we’ve seen them.
Jeff Kikel: But we haven’t breached them. Absolutely. So I wanted to just cover one more thing on my part of this. And this is I have, I’ve read and followed the investors
business daily for my entire career. I started reading it when I got into the business in 1995,
[00:10:00] and I have religiously read it. I’ve shifted more to the online. Jeff Kikel: I don’t really use the newspaper anymore. They actually only produce the
newspaper on weekends and Mondays now. So yeah, you don’t even have it for the rest
of the time. This is investors dot com. One of the things I do every day. So I have a routine
that I go through about 30 minutes every morning of just going through a few things.
Jeff Kikel: So one of the first places I always go is this top left hand column
market trend. And what this does is this is their market article for the day. It gives you the, here’s what’s going on today. Here’s what,
what happened. Here’s the stocks that are affecting the markets and everything else.
Jeff Kikel: I’m a huge fan of Disney. It has been a ginormous smoking, what all year long or steaming, what partly because they’ve caused it for themselves, I
think by getting political and also jacking their prices up but. They’ve got a new [00:11:00] CEO
and he’s bringing some really interesting. I know the new CEO is the prior two CEOs in the past.
Jeff Kikel: This is his third stint. Third stint here. Yeah. So hopefully he’ll bring,
he’s already said some things that he’s bringing in. I just hope that it actually works that way. On this column, it also shows you the market trend,
which is. I think extremely important. It’s something I follow on a regular basis because
this tells you it’s a proprietary thing inside of IBD and it tells you where the trend is.
Jeff Kikel: So we went, if you looked at this 2 weeks ago when we took some time off and we were
going through earning season that had reversed and was in a market downtrend. For at least 2 weeks,
which usually these don’t change that rapidly. They tend to stay in 1 direction or another.
Jeff Kikel: I think from a chartist perspective. Yeah, it’s good seeing an uptrend. But if you look at this downtrend that we’ve been on,
we’ve been on this kind of steady down declined. [00:12:00] I think you’re gonna have some stuff on this today, Ron, right? no, not today. I’m not going through any charts today.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Okay. All right. I look at it from a charter’s perspective. Anytime I see lower highs and lower lows, that’s never a good sign because I think a little bit
longer term trend after we had that spike. In June this year, we’ve been on this continual kind of downtrend. Now you have these little
mid moves during that time period, we’re back into that confirmed uptrend here.
Jeff Kikel: You can see it in the market right there. Does it break through and continue upwards? We are right at about where the high was, about a month and a half ago 10, 12,
we’re right at that point. So it, does it turn around again? I don’t know, but I think we’re I don’t know if we’re going to be in that Santa Claus rally is what I would say for this year.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, I think November will probably be an up month just because we had three negative months in a row and that just doesn’t happen. But don’t forget to, you haven’t heard too many people
talking about it. [00:13:00] The target, don’t forget the debt ceiling thing is coming next week. Jeff Kikel: Of course. I haven’t heard anybody talking about the 17th. That’s
when the continuing resolution is supposed to end. I haven’t heard anything. Nope. No,
I’ve not heard a word. I am not the headline stuff for financial news. Yeah. Yeah. And it’s,
I haven’t even heard a mention of it since the speaker, since they were working with the speaker and all that, getting a, the new speaker and I’ve not heard a mention of it now that I think
the only thing I heard was when the new speaker came in, like him or or hate him, he did say.
Jeff Kikel: I have a plan to avoid another shutdown. Didn’t say what the plan was. What
is it? Didn’t say what the plan was. And you didn’t even hear like the two sides are even talking. We’ll see. And if this goes into Thanksgiving,
holy crap. I don’t know. Yeah, Thanksgiving or into, past Thanksgiving into the Christmas season.
Jeff Kikel: They don’t want to hang around in Washington and, you don’t want them to kick the can. It’s just, I [00:14:00] thought I remembered earlier in the year that,
oh by doing all this stuff that we did early in the summer. That was going to kick it for two years down the road and we wouldn’t have to worry about it.
Jeff Kikel: And now all of a sudden it was, right back in the, in October, it’s the same stupid stuff again. So it’d be interesting to see, do they come up with a real
resolution or are they going to kick the can and just do another CR? Six months from now,
which maybe is part of the GOP plan to get this right in the heat of the election cycle time.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Don’t know, but Hey, look, they’re doing things for their own good. Not our own good. It’s all politics. It’s a hundred percent politics and it’s
nothing about what actually is good for the rest of us. I know. I know. All right. So what I want to do is I want to go over something. I want to revisit something
we did back in September and then talk about a couple of other quick things. Jeff Kikel: So if you remember from our, so one of our September podcast,
we were talking about GDP forecast and we were laughing through at the spread.
Because, [00:15:00] typically the St. Louis fed, they got a lot of good information that we use and I got a chart coming up on it and yeah, they got the New York fed and this is the crazy thing.
Jeff Kikel: We were laughing at the Atlanta fed. Meanwhile, they were spot on with 4. 9 and everybody couldn’t believe it. Yeah, I am sure this will be revised,
but this is the crazy thing. All these people have the same damn information. They all have access
to it. Yeah. And they all have, economists and not just dozens, but hundreds of PhDs.
Jeff Kikel: Along with the fed, you could talk thousands of PhDs. They’re all analyzing and crunching numbers and putting, numbers into their models. And they can’t even come up with at least
a one point spread on a gdp So what does this mean for the st. Louis fed? They just had their
head up the rear ends They weren’t looking at half the information And we all know that the
summer was a good summer for the consumer [00:16:00] to be spending we all saw that because they caught what do they call it revenge spending or something like that So I get that.
Jeff Kikel: How does New York and St. Louis so far off and Atlanta, which was,
way out of range. I was shocked that they came in that. Yeah. Because they were so far of an outlier and, and again, I give them kudos. You got to give people props,
but. I’d love to see what the revisions are on this one. Jeff Kikel: We already talked about the revisions on on job claims have been
revised almost a million over the last year, which is just absurd. Like at that point,
just close your eyes and throw your dart at a dartboard for crying out loud. So it’ll be C it’ll be interesting to see this, but here’s the other thing.
Jeff Kikel: And I’ll just let it lie. So this is Q3 GDP, and this was from 921. And I think
the numbers came out before that. How the hell are they coming up with this forecast so far
in advance? And, um, [00:17:00] and the range is just so much. Look, I’m saying this rhetorically,
there is no answer for this. I just think this is just something very interesting, whether people follow it or not, because they’re following a headline number, but I think people
need to realize there’s a lot of smart people out there that have very contrarian views on this. Jeff Kikel: wE and we look at it with a lot of the economic data that I report off
of Conaday. How many times have we looked at it and they’re, okay the, the new job openings and,
it’s a range from 100, 000 up to 500, 000 and, consensus is 150. Okay, great.
Jeff Kikel: But you’re. Yeah, you’re talking literally a 400, 000 job swing at this point and
again, they’re all have the same data politically motivated on one side or the other. Yeah. They’re
supposed to be the smartest and most talented in the room. I don’t know what to say. I
hear Jeff Kikel: you. All right. Jeff Kikel: So next thing too. I know we had talked about this before. This was the [00:18:00]
credit card interest rate. It has now ticked out to 21. 19. Average rate. This is unbelievable.
Again, I haven’t really heard any momentum at all. Talk about trying to regulate this or cap
it or whatever, but I think this is definitely something you got to keep your eye on because
that, look, we already talked about credit card balances breaching a trillion dollars. Jeff Kikel: And if the average is 21 percent on that money, these credit card
and bank companies and banks. You know at some point there’s got to be defaults here. Yeah,
I don’t know what’s going to happen All right. One more article so before I get to it I just want to give a little preamble, one of the things you always talked about with You know heading
into a recession or the potential of coming out of recession is Transportation, right?
Jeff Kikel: If transportation ticks up, that means there are more goods being, [00:19:00] transferred
in commerce that, hey, that’s good. And if transportation goes down, they’re not
transporting as much. That means there may be a slow down Maersk. Oh, I’m sorry. Here. So here,
let me go look again at Maersk, which is one of the largest shipping companies in the world.
Jeff Kikel: Just had an 18. I just had a 18 percent decrease in their job force. 10, 000
jobs cut, profit lowered. I actually heard, and this is always an economist that I heard,
spin things to the Democrat kind of way of thinking, which is fine. But they said,
Oh yeah, they were due to lay off a lot of people because they ramped up with COVID.
Jeff Kikel: Wait a minute. That ramp up was done two years ago. Yeah. So they would’ve gotten rid of jobs a year ago. , not now. Yeah. They’re
getting rid of jobs now because what they’re forecasting. Is less
in shipments. Yeah. Less. You don’t get rid of people now because all of a sudden yeah. Jeff Kikel: We let it go on long enough. [00:20:00] No. These people,
like every government public company is quarter to quarter. They got to do better next quarter.
So I think that I don’t know how you feel in some of the things that you’ve fallen that you have seen, but obviously you could see that, this is the lowest level since 2020.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. I, yeah, there’s an old, there’s an old trading theory called the Dow theory. And what it would do is look at the Dow industrials versus
the Dow transports. And if those were diverging. You followed what the Dow
transports did. So you’re always followed what the transports did either up or down. Jeff Kikel: Let’s say the stock market is down. The Dow Jones is down now realize
that only represents 30 stocks. And by far is less of an industrial anymore,
right? It’s a little bit more tech and software than it is. A, an industrial,
but that has always been that trend of. Okay, you followed where the transports went and, if the stock market, [00:21:00] if the Dow was going down and transport started going up,
that was an indicator that it was going to start going that way. Jeff Kikel: Now that the Dow transit or the Dow theory has been discredited in
the current world because it doesn’t, once again, it’s not industrials anymore. So it’s not all the big industrial companies
where you would see them, the industrials. You could still follow, there are many.
Jeff Kikel: Indexes for transportation. Yeah, and I, I agree. And then, if you think of this,
okay, let’s say mares Starts cutting jobs because they feel like, okay, there’s going to be less shipping. What does that affect? That also
affects railroads because a large portion of railroads and trucking are intermodal.
Jeff Kikel: That means those things that are on those ships that they take off, they either put onto a train and that goes off or they put it onto
a truck and that goes off. And what was the, and what was the company a month and a half ago that went bankrupt? Yellow. Yellow. Yeah. One of the largest.
Jeff Kikel: They small. Yeah. That was, yeah. I think I [00:22:00] forgot how many people they laid off or whatever it were. They ended up having to let go. I forgot it. Was it 30,000
less? Yeah, it was like 40,000. I think so. Oh, was it? Okay. Yeah, that’s so now if they
were busy, if they if there was more than enough demand they’d still be in business.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. Obviously there were some other factors there that I did read, but certainly, competition and demand were two big factors. Yeah. And like
I said this is the canary in the coal mine. When you start seeing it from the shippers, because they do so much overseas, it’ll be interesting to see the other, their competitors.
Jeff Kikel: I think Maersk, if I remember correctly, is the only publicly traded one here in the United States. That’s a U. S. based company.
All the others are foreign based companies that trade from Denmark too. But yeah,
I’m not sure how they trade. But here’s the other thing. I thought that was interesting. Jeff Kikel: Car payment defaults at 29 year high. So if credit card balances
breach a trillion credit card [00:23:00] payments are at a 29 year high and student debt loans are now coming back. How many people are part of all three of those
contingencies? I don’t know. And I’ve already heard, it’s interesting because
I’d been beating the drum when it came to the student loan debt and everything else. Jeff Kikel: And, like I said, I have that one program that I.
Offer to people that can reduce their student loan debt. And I cannot tell you how many clients are coming to me talking with their kids where it’s oh,
my God, I have a 300 a month payment now, and I can’t even afford that. That’s affecting me.
Jeff Kikel: And it’s only been a few weeks. Drag that out a few more months and it’s going to start to have, I think, some profound effect. It has to look, we know the dam is going
to break at some point. I thought it would have been by Q4. I heard a couple of very smart people that I do follow talk about Q2 next year, nobody could predict it exactly,
obviously in the government based on some of their policies [00:24:00] could extend it out.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, further. I don’t think they could extend it out past the presidential election as next November. So it should be interesting to see because obviously,
the more adrenaline shots that you give somebody at some point the body can’t take it anymore. Yeah, it doesn’t have an effect.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, I think that’s the challenge is just stops having any kind of effect. And, I guess the good part is. I don’t know. I don’t know your take on this. I think the
Fed’s going to hold where they’re at for a little bit here and see how things roll out. Because the bond market is effectively doing the job of the Fed at this point.
Jeff Kikel: The bond market is definitely moving and having an impact on the rest of the economy
pretty significantly. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. And I heard the same thing from some people that
I do follow also. And the interesting thing about that is, we were talking about this in
the pregame, we, 10 year knocked on the door of 5 percent again, pull back to 4846.[00:25:00]
Jeff Kikel: It’s now above 45 again. And that’s what people are looking at. The people that are looking longer term and effects on economy people are basically saying,
if this happens. Going above five percent again and or stays there and people are looking at even going above that Maybe closer to five and a half or six.
Jeff Kikel: That’s not even good for the banks That’s not good for commercial paper commercial property paper because of all that’s all that has been essentially flexible rates
over the years They never thought it would you know, double or triple from two and a half to three and you think that, commercial paper, especially if it if you have rates like that,
what commercial for those of you guys don’t understand what commercial paper is. Jeff Kikel: Let’s say Ron is a. Company here in the United States,
he buys things from overseas. You buy something and then you’ve got to get it shipped to you and
that might take 30 to 60 days. So that means it’s 30 or 60 days before you get
that [00:26:00] product and you can resell it. So what commercial paper is short term. Jeff Kikel: Money that I can go to a bank and say, hey, Ron, you need, how much do you need?
I need a million dollars to get this product on shore over a 60 day period. And so that’s what
commercial paper is. If you go up to five point, 5. 5, let’s say, or five, that adds 5 percent more
costs to those goods coming in, which is a challenge and the U S dollar has been going up.
Jeff Kikel: That makes it even more challenging to try and sell back things overseas at this point,
because it’s much more expensive. Yep. I hear you had perfect explanation and it should be
interesting to. To really see how this is, how this really has an effect. I know we’ve,
I know we’re basically, just sounds like we’re in an echo chamber at this point, week after week, month after month, but I don’t see any real reason, zero reason.
Jeff Kikel: I don’t see any real [00:27:00] reason to say, what. Let’s fully allocate the portfolio to that growth. You got somebody that’s got 10,
15 or more years to go for retirement. I don’t see how you now pushing your chips to go. Yes.
All is safe. All is clear in my opinion. I think you have to wait at least Q2 or Q3.
Jeff Kikel: You could leg out. But until you start pushing in your chips I just don’t see it because
I think you could buy things more on sale we can’t get a bottom tick on this to you know do this But
I just don’t see in a real, you know in a full growth oriented portfolio Why you would put new
money to work, and push your chips in right now Yeah, I think you still got to be in the game a
little bit, but I fully invested, and if you looked at that IBD, that the IBD market trend
or the uptrend, one of the things, and as you look at it, you want to read it very specifically, but,
the way they talk about it, it says, Hey, they, it regained its 50 [00:28:00] day moving averages, meaning both indices, the S and P 500 and the NASDAQ regained their 50 day moving averages.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, but you’re only, they asked or they guide you to put only exposure of 40 to 60 percent of your portfolio in equities. Just because it’s
in an uptrend doesn’t mean it’s a strong uptrend with momentum. Yeah, it’s in an uptrend in a, yeah, it’s in a short term uptrend in a downtrend right now.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah. And, yeah, and we’re vacillating the 50 day moving average is a great indicator and I’ve always used it, but, going back, to the trading days,
the whole thing is catalyst and conviction. Yeah. Okay, great. There’s a catalyst above, the 50 day
moving average, it’s always acted as a ceiling on the way up, but if you look at the conviction, it’s been petering out. What’s the next push we’re past corporate earnings. We just had the
GDP reading. We just had the Q three unemployment number. So what’s the next catalyst to push
it higher? Yeah. Earnings [00:29:00] estimates have been flat to negative for Q four and Q one.
Jeff Kikel: So what’s the catalyst to get this thing 2 4600 or to even get to
new highs of 4,800 in the next three to six months? I don’t see it. There’s really none,
and I think the next number that’s going to come in that’s going to have any major effect on the market is going to be the retail sales.
Jeff Kikel: I think the next catalyst would be if there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine and Russia. There’s a ceasefire in with Hamas and or there’s complete peace. It’s not going to happen. No, it’s not
going to happen anytime soon. I don’t want to be negative because I want to see it happen. Yeah, I
just don’t see it happening anytime soon idea once again, and there’s only so much we can supply.
Jeff Kikel: They, these countries are going to have to fight it out. And I think Israel is, they’re looking at it. They’re going to fight it out themselves. They don’t
want other people getting in the mixed of it. And, I just don’t know. I’ve not even heard where things are at in Ukraine because [00:30:00] everybody’s been so focused on the
Israel situation and the Hamas situation that I’ve not heard a word about Ukraine.
Jeff Kikel: And at last I heard is the, the big surge that they were supposed to have during the summer petered out and didn’t work because we didn’t get all the stuff
they needed to do it. The last I heard, and it’s probably been about a week and a half because I’ve been out of it for a little bit on the international news like that,
the last I heard was there hasn’t been much ground gained on either side.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, it’s I don’t want to say it’s a stalemate, but not much has been gained on either side. And I just don’t understand. Russia has what the 3rd largest army in the world behind us and
China. They should have rolled over Ukraine a year ago. Everybody said that. So why are they not just
doing a full of, I don’t want to see it happen, but why are they just not doing a full offensive? Jeff Kikel: I think it’s a clown. I think their military quite frankly,
is a clown show. They talk about how good, I remember being in the Mideast
during the first Gulf war [00:31:00] and the talk of Saddam Hussein had the, I think the fourth largest military in the world and they’re a clown ship.
Jeff Kikel: It was, it’s, they looked big, there’s fighting spirit and, the big thing with Russia
is they’re a largely conscripted army and more so today than it was. And conscripts aren’t going to,
they didn’t want to be in, if they wanted to be in, they would join voluntarily.
Jeff Kikel: So they don’t want to be in there. And it’s very difficult to get somebody, especially when things go bad, it’s difficult to get that kind of push that you need. They’ve
called up all the reservists. They’ve drafted more people. And, when you’re in one of these,
just slug it out kind of wars. I think the biggest thing for the Ukrainians is, there’s only so much
fighting spirit you can have when you’re in one of these trench wars where it’s just nonstop, you’re not moving and you’re just getting pounded on nonstop, it’s almost attrition.
Jeff Kikel: Yeah, it is. It’s just, it’s, it comes down to now, not necessarily [00:32:00] equipment as much as fighting spirit. And can they maintain that fighting spirit? To push the Russians out,
or is there just too many Russians to push out at that point? And does it end up coming to the same borders that Russia had before, which is the whole Dombask region,
which is largely Russian speaking because they dumped a whole bunch of Russians into that area.
Jeff Kikel: And Crimea, which is, traditionally was a Russian stronghold because it was their
access to the Black Sea and, was once again, it was, I think Stalin or somebody had dumped a whole
bunch of Russians into that area. For generations, they’ve been, they’re ethnic Russians.
Jeff Kikel: That live there. So are you going to be able to break through and take over? And will Ukraine be able to hold and stay steady with that? I don’t think I, and the other thing too,
diplomacy is not going to work. Nope. And diplomacy in the middle East is definitely
not going to work because they’ve been fighting for [00:33:00] 3000 years. Jeff Kikel: And I don’t really see that changing anytime soon. we’ve
got to support Israel because God knows they’re the only people that actually like us. in The Middle East at this point. They’re the only democracy. Yeah. The next
democracy I think is India. Yeah. Right in, in the middle, in the, in Middle East Asia. Jeff Kikel: I think that’s the only other real demo. True democracy. Yeah. Yeah. So we shall
see. Yeah. All right. Until next week, I think we got some more economic stuff coming out. I
think I’ll just make my little Nostradamus prediction. I truly believe that I think
we’ve hit now we’ve gotten our dead cat bounce, our head fake, whatever you want to call it. Jeff Kikel: Nobody likes to call it a dead cat bounce, baby. I’m a dog guy.
So what can you say? But I think we, we’ve did a short term peak and I think we’re just going to be flat to range bound. Thank you. Balance of this year. I think we, 4400,
I think is the peak now through the end of the year. I think maybe we’ll end up closer to 4000. Jeff Kikel: I don’t know. We’ll have to say. Yeah. And I can see it from
your perspective. I [00:34:00] can see this. And, once again, being a bit of a chartist, or I at least play 1 on TV. I could see us just being in this little range going into
the 1st quarter of the year because I just don’t think we’re going to see a huge amount.
Jeff Kikel: We saw surprises this time and a lot of surprises, but we also saw some weakness and
the market really reacted to the magnificent 7. Each of them they’re priced for perfection
and if there’s any chink in the armor, they get whacked. Microsoft just hit a 52 week
high and NVIDIA gained most of its losses from the last two weeks or three weeks ago.
Jeff Kikel: Gained it all back in the last week and a half or, wherever it is 465. I know they were near 500 at its peak. So all those are the only
two that I’ve been performing. Google came back a little bit from its peak and then they pull back. We’ll have to see next week. Maybe we should do some charts on that.
Jeff Kikel: But like I said, all these economic factors are stacking up. We’ll just have to see how the reaction is. [00:35:00] Absolutely. Folks, we do these shows for you. So
make sure that if you are watching this now, quickly drop down to that subscription button
and hit that button because we do these every week for you and you don’t want to miss one.
Jeff Kikel: In addition to that, make sure that you give us a little upvote there because we like that. And that actually helps us get out to more people outside of our audience. So we
really appreciate you doing that. We will be back next week. Thanks a lot. And we’ll see you then.