TRANSCRIPT
my game good morning fens of things how you guys doing today we are so glad to see you here and it
is the day before July 4th a long weekend a short Market day not a whole lot of information going on
in world besides a a employment report this Friday but it will be a good day we’ve got several things
that we’re going to talk about today Ron’s going to lead us off with a few things that he’s been
doing some research on and that I will finish us up with some uh some additional research I’ve been
doing and it was actually from you guys you all had asked a bunch of questions about renewable
energy and some of the renewable energy plays that are out there so I did a little research
for you and and held my nose on some of these to be able to give you some ideas on them so Ron how
you doing my friend good all right let’s kick this thing off kick this pig all right let me know when
you see it almost there there we go so I remember this when it came out four years ago this is very
interesting it’s surprising that it took all this time to find out about this but Irene triplet it
died in 202 20 she was the oldest recipient of getting Civil War money because her father who
was 83 when they had her in 1930 was a civil war event so those Civil War benefits passed
on her $733 a month for her entire life now think about it if you were getting $73 a month back in
1870 1880 you were living pretty good living yeah that’s a really good living not so much
have been able to buy Beach property back then yeah good God I couldn’t that’s like less than
a trip to the grocery store even on a slow day for me I don’t know what you’re eating my man
but that might be half a meal we depending on what you’re getting there no kidding good Lord anyway
I remember this when it came out four years ago when I saw it again I had to go through it because
you’ll never see something like this again this is just crazy all so next one color TV existed
in the 1950s the technology had been developed in the 40s but very few people owned it and it was
so expensive a TV set back in 1954 color one was ,000 over $1,000 today and the funny thing is I
think the average house was like $6,000 or $7,000 at that time wow and don’t forget if you remember
the old screens were a 10 10 in diameter circle tube yeah and those first ones were just like a
ghostly Shadow and everything else so I love the old pictures where people are sitting around a TV
that 10 inches in diameter for a tube and you got eight people looking around in complete amaz wow
can you imagine them today the 4K TVs and the oleds look look like 3D at night it’s crazy oh
imagine you know somebody from back then seeing a 70inch TV that you know the people on the screen
are bigger than the people in the room yeah I un imag even 30 years ago was unimaginable to
have a TV that you hang on your wall so it’s interesting okay so let’s keep going so some
interesting things about performance during the summer months in the market June has historically
been a month where Industries tend to decline we were up 3.6% last month m so typically June is
not a great month the S&P in the Dow Industrial has finished a negative territory 15 out of the
last 39 months or 38 and a half% of the time which basically doesn’t give you any real indicator okay
great been more positive than negative but is it so strong for conviction no and then here’s the
other interesting one between October 30th and 18 and April 30th the so-called winter months
the Dow has been up only 1 8% yeah meaning that the summer months for the Dow are typically good
and if you see what’s happened to the Dow in the last three months it’s basically been flat
yeah it I mean interestingly enough it had a lot of days during the month of June that it was on
several days it was the only thing up and it was up significantly during that time oh yeah oh Apple
had a killer month last month remember in the last podcast a two-day move was 400 billion in in
market cap ridiculous and Boeing stopped shooting themselves in the foot every day so that helped
immensely y okay so some of the benchmarks so June historically has been a relatively flat month July
historically is the best month of the year for the S&P but rather ironically last year July
started the 10% pullback through October 27th so it should be interesting to see based on our move
in the first half of the year if June continues to be the best month of the year or is it going
to be you know the the beginning of the slide because of the presidential election year and the
time frame from July to on October is typically not a great time frame in presidential election
years and then August there is one statistic that in our favor and that is 69% of the time during
the summer Olympic the market goes up goes up yep okay we’ll know in the next two weeks right there
we go August has been a relatively weak month historically only averaging up about 3% now so
that’s typically the performance of the indices now what are typically the best performing sectors
technology for crying out loud if the Market’s going up technolog is leading the way as it pretty
much has over the last 30 years utilities typically dis the whole thing with AI and
the data centers the utilities typically do well during the summer I guess that’s a given people
need more electricity for their AC especially where you and I live energy has done well that
also makes sense people are traveling during the Summers but this is interesting real estate real
estate right now is struggling I don’t know if you’ve seen some charts of the home builders and
whatever but they had a huge rise at the end of last year into this year they’re back down to 52
week load yeah wow so I don’t know what’s going on there but I saw yesterday a 30-year fix rate
hit 7.13% yeah so who’s putting their house up for sale to go get a new mortgage not happening
in healthcare has also drawn strong performance when interest rates are rising and we all know
that interest rates are only going to be going in One Direction chair pal was out on Monday being
interviewed saying hire for longer how many times have we said that but here’s the other interesting
thing that he did State not that I was surprised he said look their target obviously as we all
know is to get down to 2% inflation but he said he doesn’t expect that to happen in 2024 or in 20125
that mean higher for longer yes he keeps saying so with higher for longer we could count on you know
struggling with housing Banking and credit lines being seized up a little bit we’ll see so anyway
just some interesting facts and I will state that my AI co-pilot actually helped me create
that those in that information awesome see I mean you’re I’m in the 21st century now I’m getting rid
of the hammer and chisel will do all my right you know and I mean you were talking about it’s
interesting because remember we were talking about the the healthc care stuff you had done a piece on
that probably in February if you all go back Ron did a great piece on that talking about how really
the back half of the Year typically healthc care does better now the interesting thing though is
from May till now it has sucked it up back during that time period so if it’s gonna start doing
something it’s got to start doing something soon otherwise it’ll be one of those off years when
it comes to that with Healthcare it’s and also healthc care is a political football topic too
you know when they want to talk about insurance and everything else all the lobbyists get their
claws into the the politicians and I am sure you know that as you we approach the election
that depending on where we are with with our candidate that definitely healthc care is going
to be a topic just as a again a political football being passed around yeah and you were you had that
piece in there about real estate yes I think real estate in general is a mess right now but even
from a re standpoint typically that’s a sleeve of our portfolios and it’s not a detractor I will say
over the last 365 days but it certainly hasn’t been an Adder either it’s just Mark time and
we’ve collected dividend and that’s been about it yeah from that perspective and even the healthare
started out on fire in January and February and it’s completely pulled back so yeah I think the
second half of the year will be good for health care we just have to kind of get some kind of a
healthy pullback here in the mark to make those things look more tracked for a run into the end
of the year absolutely like I said I think from that perspective I think that was a really good
look at the market and thank God for AI it makes our lives a whole lot easier when it comes to that
but I I think it’s an interesting time period I I still hear people in the news constantly oh we’ll
probably have three rate Cuts before year end you people are smoking something it isn’t going to
happen actually I’m glad you brought that up again because that’s a segue from what I talked about
before with J pal talking about we’re not going to we’re not going to get we’re it’s going to take
you know another year and a half right my point is that they were talking oh it’ll definitely happen
in September no no they got to wait till after the election it’ll definitely happen in November
or December it doesn’t matter when they think it’s going to happen they’re already telling you
they’re on track for inflation but going to be at least another 12 to I’m sorry 18 plus months
before they get down there my my whole point is right now you know anything that’s more than
50% in the FED Futures rate they’re looking as a cut so they’re looking at two this year and three
next year forget about we already dad nauseum last year we were having fun with it about they thought
there was going to be six or seven this year but my point is that we’ll be lucky if we get one and
if we do I think it’ll happen after the election but it dated dependent it’s not gonna have and
not only that but a quarter of a point pullback means nothing yeah that’s not going to turn head
no speculators will hop all over that but it’s not going to have a major effect on the market
or in lending at all yeah no and it’s going to take a a long while to pull stuff back the
only thing that’s going to happen is the the short-term rates are immediately going to go
down fast because they’re already massively we’re still in an inverted yield curve at this point so
no matter what happens it’s going to take it’s it all it’s going to do is pull back that short end
of the market and people that have been living on hey 5% money markets or five and a quarter percent
treasuries in the short run of the market those are going to pull back fast and you’re not going
to have those anymore and but the longer term rates are probably going to stay up there that the
mortgage rates and things like that aren’t going to come back as fast that’s all right hey look my
conservative clients and my pre-retirees and my retirees are loving those one to six month rates
and just them over as they mature and conservative it’s risk-free and they could sleep at night a lot
of my a lot of my money market clients that we we’ve been talking about this and I said that’s
going to evaporate fast so we need to start doing short-term Bond ladders basically from now and
just keep rolling that stuff over that’ll preserve it as long as we possibly can at Point all right
what else you got Co let’s let’s finish up here and say folks thank you for joining us on the show
love to have love to have you on and make sure that you’re hitting that um subscribe
button every time make sure you’re giving us some upvotes we’re getting a ton of those and
we’re getting lots of questions and that Segways into the next episode of the show
where we’re gonna actually take some of your questions and turn that I turned those into
an episode in and of itself so you got to tune in for that we’ll see you back here the next