good morning of things crowd it is Jeff and Ron  here again for another sense of things update for  

the week welcome to the week after the uh Easter  holiday and the week before Eclipse USA Ron how  

you doing buddy good morning yeah I’m waiting  for all the religious zealots that believe the  

eclipse is part of Armageddon and the end of  the world wasn’t it a few years ago with the  

Mayan Eclipse thing or the Mayan thing that oh it  was gonna the world was ending Maybe not maybe we  

misread that I don’t know you get another Heaven’s  Gate situation with the eclipse and other things  

so what are you gonna do you like to start let’s  let’s start with that very thing let’s take a look  

at our Eclipse update here so for those of you  that have been in a cloud or in a cave here’s we  

both upcoming Eclipse so this is what the swath of  it is so Ron’s way over here so he’s not getting  

much Eclipse uh the middle of the state sir there  right there okay there we go so Ron’s right here  

I’m right here so you would think I’m going to  get a great Eclipse shot the entire state of  

Texas is going to be covered in clouds and most  of these folks are going to be covered in clouds  

and rainstorms and everything else so it’s not  going to be the Great American Eclipse that most  

of us are going to see from what I understand it’s  really just up here around Cleveland Watertown New  

York Burlington Vermont that they’re actually  going to have clear skies and they’ll actually  

get to see the eclipse um I believe that this will  be the last one for another 30 years or something  

like that crazy yeah I remember one about eight  years ago yeah part partial yeah I remember one  

when I was a kid I think when I was in Maybe  Junior High School maybe Elementary School I  

remember it happening but yeah I really don’t  pay much attention to it but and make sure you  

get the right glasses apparently there’s a lot  of counterfeit fake glasses for Eclipse they said  

that you could go blind know the stupid Eclipse  yeah you can’t use regular sunglasses you got to  

use ones that basically a blind person would need  to wear that’s from what I heard and understand  

but who knows I was able to get mine through I  mean they’re everywhere around town but I was able  

to get mine through Walmart when I bought a TV the  other day so I have the Walmart one so hopefully  

they’re not some cheap Chinese thing that’s going  to cause me to go blind oh I’m sure they are but  

that’s okay um just quickly while we’ve got while  I’ve got my screen shared once again really quiet  

week in the markets really quiet week when it  comes to our our U what’s going on in the the  

economic calendar and everything else um but we  did have a couple of interesting reports this week  

first of which was the ISM Manufacturing Index  briefing.com had a consensus of 48.5 it’s really  

been below so the the 50 number is expansionary  meaning that we’re an expansion for that index uh  

below that is considered we’re in a contractionary  phase so the ISM Manufacturing Index which we’ve  

talked about multiple times has been below 50  for somewhere going on I think two and a half  

years September 2022 and this was the first  time we’ve seen it go into expansionary phase  

so that’s an interesting thing and then of course  we had the ism non by the way very quickly yeah  

manufacturer is the one sector that has been  leading most of the other sectors in layoffs  

which is intriguing to me that it’s moving in the  right direction all of a sudden manufacturing is  

one of the most labor intensive industry so how  can you be expanding if you’re laying off people  

once again it’s another conundrum fortunately this  is a private organization and not a governmental  

organization so I believe their numbers a little  bit more than some of the stuff that comes out  

of our governmental agencies I think they’re  a little they fudge a little bit more or their  

data is terrible um so the non-manufacturing so  think of this is the service industry businesses  

it still came in at 51.4 but it’s been on a  contractionary direction for several months  

now and the services sector is our largest sector  in the country so this is something that we do  

need to start paying some attention to both of  them are in expansionary mode which is I it’s  

good for the world it’s good for everything if  we start to see the service sector side continue  

on this trend it may easily blow through 50 and  go into the contractionary and if AI takes full  

effect in about 10 years that’ll be down to 40  yeah it really will it’s productivity will go  

through the roof and you’re just going to have  nonp payrolls hey we’ll get down that four hour  

work week yeah or you’re going to have California  they just put into place this week that 20 hour or  

$20 an hour for yeah $15 Big Mac good luck yeah  exactly it’s probably going to be a $20 Big Mac  

fors all over they’re saying lower income people  can’t afford McDonald’s anymore yeah where are  

they gonna go it’s okay they Taco Bell yeah go  to Taco Bell and that’s gonna be well oh yeah  

doesn’t matter all fast food yeah that’s going to  be a that’s a franchise too so they’re going to  

have to pay and it’s funny because the argument  I heard was well but this is only these you know  

big franchises and all that and I was like you  do realize that those big franchises are owned  

by little businesses little small businesses not  all of them have to pay that yes but if somebody’s  

paying $20 and I’m paying 15 I’m not going to be  able to find employees to work at my place it’s  

a cycle right if I pay you more that means my  cost goes up which means I have to charge more  

which means the consumer pays more and then we  have more inflation yep so then what do you then  

what do you got to do then I got to pay you more  so you can afford the goods so the consumer pays  

more and going around Chase Chase Chase and we  went from what $8 an hour or 750 an hour a few  

years ago there’s an old expression this I think  probably brought it up once before yeah sometimes  

you’re a ditch digger yeah if that’s what you’re  meant to do there’s a price for that right not you  

can’t be a CEO of Disney right that’s not your  calling you’re a ditch digger there’s a price  

for that why are we as consumers responsible for  paying you two to three times the amount because  

we feel bad that’s all you’re capable of doing and  being paid to afford in life the other real yeah  

the other reality of it though is okay many times  those jobs especially fast food jobs were held by  

kids that were living at home time they didn’t  need $20 an hour it’s not like they’re paying  

for mortgages and all that type of stuff there’s  G you got to start someplace and what you’re doing  

now is you’re basically ensuring that people have  no career path at all they have no incentive to go  

anywhere else because they’re making 20 bucks  an hour no but up in the managerial roles and  

that is a career role and I get that but we’re  not talking about pay for managers yeah we’re  

talking about somebody taking your order yes we’re  talking about somebody fries for lack of a better  

flipping burgers and making fries I get that but  it’s look it’s not going to get better you can’t  

go the other way once the toothpaste comes out  of the tube you can’t put it back in nope and you  

can’t California by far there’s a reason why  there’s an exodus from California yeah right  

it’s beautiful of a state at is as it is and I was  born there can’t live there no no the fast food C  

California audience what can I tell yeah the fast  the Cal or the fast food path I I always think of  

the movie Coming to America right now I’m washing  lettuce pretty soon I’ll be on Fri then I become  

a manager or an assistant manager and that’s  where the big bucks start rolling ends Louie  

Anderson was so great back then the greatest ever  he is all right was that all you wanted to cover  

yeah I don’t really have anything else it’s all  right pretty quiet week yeah so I have some fun  

stuff so let’s take a little bit of a right turn  wow from our bad product design and let’s go back  

to last October when we were having fun with  some favorite mug shots so yes folks these are  

the people that live among us and uh on his right  cheek is I think that’s the monster beverage logo  

and left cheek I don’t know if that’s the Nike  logo it has a Nike ask look I mean he you know he  

could probably be sued for copyright infringements  he’s probably a trademark infringements he has it  

but it’s you know it’s a hook or a swoosh here’s  the other thing too I’ve never had a tattoo I’ll  

never get a tattoo I think there are some tattoos  on people that are very nice but I got to ask that  

has got to hurt to get a tattoo across the atams  Apple yeah I have one on my ankle and literally  

going around so it encircles my ankle it’s a  Hawaiian tattoo and I will tell you after having  

many pieces of pain in my life there was nothing  more painful than them tapping across tapping a  

whale skin bone or whale bone into my leg right  at the the Achilles heel it felt literally like  

somebody was sawing my foot in half so oh God  you know there was a rumor going around your wife  

mentioned that you were gonna get your company  logo as a [ __ ] stamp is that true yeah I yeah  

that’s the next one we’ll do the little Freedom  Day on the back I’m liking that nice all right  

let’s keep it going or just maybe right across the  forehead whoa just to let you know all these mug  

shots had a name and the county they were arrested  in I took that out all right this lady happens to  

have been arrested in my County okay so I’m not  everybody’s going to wear that orange jumpsuit  

but obviously it was a long night for the misses  apparently either she was riding in the side car  

without a helmet or or fell off a cliff not sure  I don’t know I always believe for ladies makeup  

is to enhance not to improve yes she could use  a little help of now I gotta tell you I don’t  

know whether these are fake contacts or what but  creep scary that that is the creepiest thing I’ve  

ever seen some of the ones we had in October we’ll  have to do that again for next Halloween yeah and  

for the last one I don’t know if I want this guy  showing up at the PTA meeting at the elementary  

school read his forehead my monsters are real okay  alrighty then what what are you saying here or  

maybe it’s enough said so he’s he is arrested  for alleged domestic assault and battery by  

strangulation and domestic assault and battery wow  and he’s got the two little teardrops there which  

typically signify that you’ve killed two people at  that point point oh is that what that means yep I  

thought it means I’m crying for you or something  like but he has such kind and genuine eyes yeah  

what is the other does it say rebel across his I  think so yeah eye and then he’s got the weird then  

in his left ear it’s a spider going towards the  ear that has a tattoo of a web yeah that’s just  

disgusting and weird okay yeah and then he’s got  some kind of weird hopefully none of these people  

track us down but what can I tell you hey this all  out on the internet what can I tell you I think  

I think most of these folks are probably still in  jail yeah yeah this is in the last month okay all  

right so we we brought this up a couple of times  last year and these are if you take a look at it  

year by year this is how sectors have performed  by year and you can see there cyclicality to it  

there’s seasonality to it and you always want  to look at the the underperforming SE the top  

the bottom four underperforming sectors because  usually they rise to the top in the next year yeah  

healthc care this year came out of the gate flying  in the first four to six weeks and then really  

Peter down in the last week a lot of the main  healthc care companies have really pulled back  

and I thought it was interesting because I believe  that this year healthc care is is going to be one  

of the top winners top two top three sectors and  it’s pulled back now it’s to a point where I think  

it’s near a off level but here’s the interesting  thing this is just the Health Care seasonality by  

month over a 20year range and if you take a look  at it that you know usually the June July time  

frame is the buy and the reason why I research  this is because I heard a market strategist  

last week say hold off on the health care sector  until the summertime and I did a little dog ear  

what yeah and I’m like that’s interesting why June  July I don’t know but here it is a 20-year chart  

showing that June July is typically a good time  frame to get into healthc care so this keep my  

eye on to because I have a group of clients that I  said that we’re gonna get into the health care we  

want to wait for a good price to get in obviously  we know what’s happened in the first three months  

but we’re going to keep an eye on this going into  June I don’t know I wanted to give your get your  

thoughts before I I mean it’s interesting to me  that there this huge dip off in March like from  

February to March I don’t understand March is  typically a down Monon in the market period  

yeah but I mean it just why healthc care would  be like pulled back so much at that point and  

then why it just steadily Rises throughout the  rest of the year makes no sense to me but it you  

know these are the type of things that you just  pay attention to and it it can give you that I  

mean you could even argue the point you could wait  until you know the Late July or even into August  

and just let it do its thing or whatever if it you  know it you don’t have that other drop down in the  

fall there in October from September yeah and I  think it’s interesting because October time frame  

in early November is typically open enrollment in  large Enterprise uh organizations and then you can  

see what happens right after open enrollment  it goes parabolic yeah I honestly I will say  

I’ve never paid this close attention to it but  every CH tells a story as we say yeah and this  

is telling an interesting story very intriguing  I I’ll keep an eye on that this year because it’s  

intriguing to me and we’ll revisit it why not so  anyway I got two other slides here on seasonality  

across indices and in different sectors so you  can see here even with Healthcare it’s showing  

a very similar time frame right April take kind of  takes off through December but I I think that it’s  

interesting this is obvious utilities obviously  do well during the summer months right so this is  

an easy one even energy okay I could see a spike  during the summer yeah that travel month yeah why  

it’s not good at any other year we need gas in our  cars and I I I you know understand this January  

through May okay so typically there’s not a whole  lot of travel during that time period you may  

have a little bit of spring Breaky time in there  but why it would wouldn’t be most of the summer  

is the strange thing for me yeah and because it  Rhymes you hear this every year even though it’s  

got only like a 30 35% chance of following through  which is sell and May and go away right and people  

said if you’ve done that it only worked like 30  to 35% of the time but I think it’s interesting  

if you take a look at how many sectors come out  of the gate very well through May yep I I think  

that’s interesting kind of industrial it shifts  to like the super defensive Industries during  

the summer so you got Consumer Staples Health Care  utilities basically all summer where you get your  

performance there and even energy which you and  I both agree I I don’t invest in energy because  

it’s just manipulated at that point when it’s  interesting with utilities is really just that  

very small little swath of window that they  do decent and the rest here interesting right  

Consumer Staples these are things that we need  every day yeah right food and materials whatever  

it is why April through November is that because  those are the warmer months through the majority  

of the year and warmer months in the South and  the southeast and West that we’re just consuming  

more I don’t know I don’t know either look data  doesn’t lie the barbecue index people yeah people  

eat a lot more barbecue and a lot of more barbecue  beans and they need Consumer Staples during that  

time period I I don’t know and they’re eating  a lot more barbecue and hot dogs and stuff like  

that and they need more Health Care during that  time period too but it is showing too if you’re  

heavy in these four SE these five sectors yeah  Financial which I’m not I’m not a I’m not a big  

proponent of or investing those top four it  should be interesting to see what happens in  

the next six weeks is are we going to continue to  rise or are we going to step in pothole with some  

of it and you know just looking at now breaking  it down into specific Industries okay I got to  

tell you the biggest one to me that I don’t get  or understand Airlines and Autos why does Autos  

have a a three and a half month time frame when  they do very well yeah and Airlines okay January  

through May 4th okay people are getting out of the  winter spring break I get that nobody goes Nobody  

travels as much summer time and then here’s  interesting during the holidays Thanksgiving  

Christmas and New Year’s people are traveling  why do all of a sudden after December 5th that  

sector doesn’t do well so there are some well  anomalies here that I’m not connecting the dots  

on so here’s my thought though is this how the  stocks are doing at those time periods these are  

the yeah the sector Industries as far as I think  when they’re peing right because I think when  

we’re not seeing the color time frame that’s when  they’re eing yeah when they’re ebing the Market’s  

always a predictor so and ebing is going up my bad  yeah I could see that you know being a predictor  

with Airlines okay six months out January to May  we’re you know the Market’s kind of betting that  

we’re gonna have a great travel period and then  you know for the summer and then October through  

December is that last quarter of absorption of  okay how good was that quarter and that may be  

where the stocks go up so that I mean I guess I  get where this is going now where it’s predicting  

all that stuff ahead of time um it’s interesting  though like real estate that is really the big  

season for Real Estate is that July to September  everybody’s moving prior to that telecom I don’t  

really get Telecom anyhow this is interesting  retail right everybody is you know the holidays  

are the LA the last six weeks of the year right  that’s when they’re making their money why does  

by November 29th right after Thanksgiving hey it  cuts off people are still buying up to Christmas  

Eve yeah right but here’s the interesting thing  everything Peters off they get rid of all their  

seasonal workers right after Christmas beginning  of January why from January 21st to April 12th  

is that cyclically seasonally good with retail  because typically that’s when all the sales are  

happening to blow out all the inventory that  didn’t sell during the holiday season yeah  

like I said I think it’s more of a it’s more of  a predictor so that October to November they’re  

predicting okay this is where we see we think  it’s going to be a good year so the stocks are  

going up then December there’s always those kind  of ancillary reports that come out so the stocks  

are all over the fence because I I invest in some  real estate in some retail and I’ve seen that from  

the stocks during that time period where you have  a company that has been doing exceptionally well  

and every report that it has it’s you know really  well but it can be all over the fence in December  

and then January through all of a sudden it’s  oh this is the reality now they had an amazing  

Christmas time or had an amazing whatever late  December Peri or late November period yeah so I  

think this is interesting and don’t get me wrong  we’re not I’m not a Trader right my goal when I  

get a client into an investment I got a three to  five year horizon line unless there’s something  

there but you don’t want to be less than a year  because of capital gains and non- tax advantage  

accounts but this is something very interesting  that if through seasonality and cyclicality there  

are certain times of the year where Investments  Mak sense something to keep an eye on and probably  

should revisit it at some point during this  year to see how much some of this holds true  

yeah exactly and is it just a weird anomaly for  the last 10 years or something like that has it  

been longer I’m a rules-based Trader so I have  very specific rules that we follow and we’re  

gonna we’re going to follow what’s going on in the  markets but yeah I’ve never really paid attention  

that much to some of that this intricate data  like that that once again it’s another little  

tweak in the if you’re a portfolio manager and  specifically a market strategist a lot of that  

stuff makes sense I get that I get that and you’re  trying at the end of the day fundamentals identify  

when good opportunities technicals tell you when  you should get in yeah right and you amalgamate  

the two together and then certainly throwing  seasonality in there combines the two together  

yeah it’s interesting like said I’ve not really  I’ve never paid attention to that stuff I’ve  

watched the higher level version of that that  you showed at the beginning that that chart that  

we’ve all used for years I’ve used that higher  end version of it just see where things are at  

but I’ve never gotten into the granular detail  like you did so thanks for that it’s very yeah  

yeah yeah like I said every week we got to do  something a little different but it’s good to  

revisit some of this stuff too yeah awesome it’s  a good week I think tomorrow April 5th is going  

to be interesting because unemployment number  got we got non-farm payrolls average earnings  

unemployment rate work average work week Consumer  Credit so it’s going to be a lot of information  

and a lot of those are are high trading impact  for the market so corporate earnings start end  

of next week of course God that seems like we just  got done with earning season and we’re right back  

to it we did it’s a never ending process folks  thanks for joining us as always make sure that