good morning sense of things this is Jeff  and Ron here again and we are kicking off  

another week of lots of craziness in the  economy uh lots of interesting facts and  

Ron’s gonna give us a rundown today on first  off some 10 of 27 so you’re gonna have to get  

the whole list of them you’re gonna have  to listen to our next episode but 10 of  

27 dated interesting business facts he’s going  to give us a rundown on some of the Wall Street  

price targets that are being updated to you to  believe them and then some other facts here at  

the end focusing on just markets in general  so let’s on for a second and we’ll be right

[Music] [Applause]

back all right everybody welcome back to the show  Ron how are you doing buddy good morning Jeff  

doing well can’t believe it’s October but then  I’ll say the same thing when we’re in January  

oh I know I know it’s just this year has flown  by and for some instances I’m glad it’s gone by  

fast but funny thing was all the Halloween stuff  started coming out at the end of August and what’s  

gonna happen the day after Halloween I don’t  know I don’t know T the season Jingle Bells the  

everything’s going to start to be in the  markets by the very first week of November  

like right after Halloween yeah that’s true yeah  it’s already started my wife’s a big crafter which  

we were shopping for fall stuff in like June and  she started doing her Christmas stuff in pretty  

much like July and August of this year our house  first off she decorated this last weekend and it  

looks like fall exploded in my house and pretty  much the weekend of Thanksgiving Christmas will  

explode in my house at that point so I hear you  and the first pre Black Friday will be the Friday  

right after Halloween of course for sale but then  of course what is it like next week Amazon’s got  

to do their like weird second prime day thing  which and then that’s kicked off Target doing it  

and Walmart doing it so yeah it’s just absolutely  insane consume yeah so we’ll talk about that why  

don’t we kick off you said you got some uh fun  facts about businesses I do I do and I got my  

camera set up a little differently today so I  thought the funniest thing was selfishness the  

CEO of Whole Foods reduced his $1 salary to put  together this fund of $100,000 relief for employ  

employees enduring personal hardships not so bad  okay all right hot dog versus hamburger McDonald’s  

first food was the hot dog not the hamburger I did  not know that not aware of that neither was I even  

watched the founder and I don’t remember them even  talking okay movie okay but it was interesting so  

what’s the catch you could get free coffee and  pastries at a coffee shop in Russia but you have  

to pay for your time there okay actually finest  in Russian format yeah Starbucks should do this  

for people that sit in the the lobby there just  charge them for yeah coffee you want but you’re  

gonna have to pay while you’re here yuck the  water doesn’t come from spring water it’s just  

tap water tap water I think I’ve heard that before  though yeah actually there’s about 30% of bottle  

water everybody thinks oh there’s so much better  and there’s yeah it’s just tap water vacation to  

Sweden anyone any Americans who buy a Volvo can  get a free holiday to swed en to test drive their  

car all costs including airfare and shipment of  the car are covered by the Volvo overseas delivery  

program H I did not know that I didn’t know that  I I have a good friend of mine who used to have  

a Mercedes and he actually bought his Mercedes  in Europe and then uh went over to pick it up  

and drove it on the aabon and all that so it was  like his big bucket list thing to be able to drive  

his car on the aabon and then paid a fortune to  ship it over to the state now I know of people  

that have done that the problem is 98% or 95 to  98% of the car is the same in Europe as it is in  

the US but they have to put on something to the  exhaust system to for the emission standards in  

the US yeah that they don’t have in Europe  yeah which is like the greenest place on the  

planet right yeah which makes me laugh that we’ve  got more standards and or less green apparently  

than they are definitely so Steve job secretary  told him that he was late for work because that  

she was late for work because her car wouldn’t  start that very afternoon Jo jobs came back and  

threw a new set of keys to a brand new Jaguar here  don’t be late anymore I wish your employer would  

do this now I there’s a lot of crazy J St Steve  Jobs stories out there yeah that’s don’t forget  

about that I think it would have been cheaper  to just send a limo for her oh no [ __ ] yeah I  

in the long run just doing Uber dude just tell  you a little bit of about his eccentricities  

oh he was a weirdo no it was funny because I had a  the HR person that I worked with at at Schwab when  

I moved to Austin she actually had worked in the  headquarters at Apple for years as a recruiter and  

HR person and there was this basically there were  days where Steve didn’t want to be screwed with so  

he could just come into the office but then there  were other days that he wanted to be challenged  

when he came into the office to he had to show his  badge and stuff like that and you never knew what  

day it was going to be and he would get pissed  if you didn’t do what he wanted and of course  

you didn’t know at that point so unfortunately  a lot of Brilliant Minds are like that we got  

a lot of them today yep all right next one got  ice cream all employees of Ben and Jerry’s get  

to take home three free pints of ice cream every  single day probably so they could be the size of  

Ben and Jerry I was going to say I mean Ben and  Jerry are not exactly the most slender people  

that I’ve ever seen but yeah we actually went to  the factory when we were in in Vermont a few years  

ago so it’s I heard that the way Crystal has kept  you for what 30 years now at this point is that  

she brings you home Chubby Hubby Ben and Jerry’s  every night there we go yep that’s it that’s it  

hey I was like a slender Reed when I met my wife  and not so much anymore right we all as send to  

the size that we want to be what can you yes there  we go so benefits from the afterlife if a Google  

employee dies their spouse will receive half their  pay for 10 years as well as stock benefits and any  

children will receive $1,000 a month until they  turn 19 that’s actually very impressive I was not  

aware of that at all yeah pretty slick take that  mask off in response to China’s air pollution a  

Chinese millionaire started selling cans of fresh  air for 80 cents and made over 6 million in 10  

months let me guess the company is called perier  right Space Balls listen and I think that person  

might have been a descendant of the one that sold  the pet rock in the 70s I think so because he was  

Chinese as well but yeah I just it’s space balls  all over again Perry a all right and the last one  

for this round Google’s Environmental Solutions  rather than uh using mechanical mowers Google  

employs 200 goats to naturally mow and fertilize  campus lawn I wouldn’t want to be downwind of  

that lawn yeah pretty much you don’t want to be  downwind of Google headquarters no matter what  

but wow yeah but hey whatever it’s much easier  you they don’t complain they just you feed them  

and they just keep doing their jobs it’s who  knows all right so getting into a little bit  

of Economics so for the last year and a half we  were talking about the 210 inversion when the  

2-year treasury is above the 10-year treasury  typically there’s a recession within 16 to 22  

months we didn’t get one because it first inverted  or last inverted in March of 2022 and this has  

been the longest period of the inversion in  the last couple of weeks in September 2024  

the 10 finally went above the 2year meaning it  rein verted and typically they look at recessions  

happening within 3 to six months uh of that period  of time so meaning when it initially inverts it’s  

within 16 to 22 months because during that period  of time typically it rein verts reined after that  

period of time so this should be interesting that  we see this over here now that this is when it  

rein verts and you could see every other time when  it has rein verted what has happened so we’ll have  

to see I don’t know if it’s different this time or  not but uh I thought this was interest point out  

so we could keep an eye on this and obviously  the S rule I know in the next podcast you’re  

going to talk about jobs because we get a new job  report tomorrow for September and uh that should  

increase a little bit more with the Som roll and  possibly affect the the reinversion I don’t know  

if you had paid attention to that I hadn’t thought  about that but we’ll go with it all right so this  

was interesting I know we showed this once before  twice before once in January and this was you and  

I with our price targets for the end of the year  we came up with our bullish case our base case  

and our be case and oh boy I don’t even know where  we’re at today whatever Dart we were throwing at  

a dartboard we missed the dartboard but I thought  what was interesting is I believe it was about 3  

four months ago May June time frame that uh a lot  of Wall Street people raised their forecast then  

would they raised it again so we’re basically  around the 5700 5700 level of the S&P 500 Index  

but I thought what was interesting was the one  on the bottom JP Morgan now JP Morgan Marco col  

who if you’ve ever listened to him he’s like the  FED whisper that’s what they call him he’s very  

articulate very well thought out in his market  analysis and he had 4,200 on there and because  

the market was just flying the first six to seven  months of this year he took quote unquote a leave  

of absence from JP Morgan JP Morgan just raised  the price Target two three weeks ago sometime  

in September to 4700 and I thought that was  interesting because that’s a thousand points  

less than where we are right now yeah so unless  we get a collapse La for lack of a better way  

of saying it what about a 17 18% yank back in the  market to get the 4700 that’s unbelievable I just  

like the way homeboy decided to take a leave of  absence so he didn’t look like a complete idiot  

by the end of the year he might have been nudged  out for a little bit too that’s true it’s dude  

we’ve been way too conservative all year it’s  I was listening to Charles Payne the other day  

and he was saying this is the greatest start to  a first three quarters of a year on the S&P ever  

in history at this point which makes me worry  because it could be running well beyond I sit  

there and I Benchmark against the S&P 500 and I  look at our performance is lagging but I’m like  

you know what I just can’t go all in at this  point and this thing can reverse extremely fast  

over a couple days at this point and get into a  correction and I do not want to be left holding  

the bag when it comes to that and for the most  part the top 10 stocks peaked in July yeah they  

have it’s been the other 490 that has broad it up  broad base but the interesting thing is and I just  

wrote about this in my newsletter this week going  out to clients that I had two clients three days  

apart I think I mentioned this in a prior podcast  all said to me Ron if all the economic data has  

been trending down the last 18 months why is the  market going up it’s a good question and you gotta  

chuckle because the answer is I don’t know and I’d  say the main reason and this is what I wrote about  

is employment even though employment is ticking up  unemployment is ticking up it’s still at what they  

quote unquote call full full employment levels  over the last 100 years so as long as long as  

people still have jobs as long as they’re spending  and maybe they’re spending money that they don’t  

have and credit cards and whatever the Market’s  going to keep getting propped up yeah I would say  

that and I would say the other part is there’s  been a massive shift in 401ks and you and I have  

been in the 401K business a long time a massive  shift away from managed mutual funds because of  

the cost which is negligible to index funds on the  top three index funds in the country S&P 500 funds  

represent almost 35 to 40% of the market and those  are Buy and Hold investors that’s every single  

week people’s paychecks are going in they’re  going into those S&P 500 funds and they just  

continue to buy more what happens in the short  run and think about how many funds those top 10  

stocks are in yeah yeah that’s the thing and that  the reality of it is it’s going to continue to be  

booed up until it isn’t and I think it will  be the employment situation if we start to see  

unemployment really get out of hand which isn’t  necessarily just because of the economy it can be  

the Port strike it can be you know I it’s funny  I haven’t heard mention of the Boeing machinist  

strike which has basically shut Boeing down and at  least 45 other country is that still going on it  

is I’ve hadn’t heard of it I was like you know  what let me just look at it up and it’ll be in  

this next uh thing that we go through on my piece  of it because I just I was like I don’t even know  

what’s going on and that thing’s been going since  August and it’s affected everybody down the chain  

all these companies are like laying off and furing  employees because Boeing’s basically not working  

right now unbelievable yeah so until next podcast  that I’ll do the other 17 there’s some gems in  

too but I know in our next podcast the people  stay tuned that was a nice tease by Jeff we’re  

going to go through the the unemployment  number and definitely talk about some of  

the strikes going on with the unions absolutely  folks thank you for joining us we’ve been trying  

to keep these a little shorter just so that  you can consume the information quickly and  

move on make sure that you are subscribing to  the channel make sure that you give us a thumbs  

up when you can give us a comment if you can and  we will see you guys back here the next time for