TRANSCRIPT

good morning sense of things we are out

of the election season I am no longer

getting 18,000 texts a day from

political candidates which I’m still not

completely convinced that those were

actually legit um one thing that I found

right before the election was I

downloaded a uh kind of a spam filter on

my computer or on my uh phone and it

started blocking all of those so it’s

been glorious for the last week that

said today we’re going to cover a little

bit of the post elction the questions

that Ron and I have been getting about

what’s going on in the world and why

haven’t what’s going to happen going

forward and everything else so we’re

going to take a look at the averages and

look at history a little bit and cover

that but also Ron has got a gift for us

which is a few more Halloween

costumes you know from our last couple

of episodes a few more Halloween

costumes just to hit that button again

so hang on we’ll be right back with you

in just a

[Music]

[Applause]

[Music]

second hey everybody it’s Jeff and Ron

here Ron how you doing bud good morning

the sun actually Rose the day after the

election and it’s sun shining today all

right the world didn’t come to to an end

thank God the world didn’t come to an

end is the the count out in Arizona ever

going to come to an end or I don’t I

thought it would have been decided that

night but it was literally a dead heat

pretty late so it doesn’t matter this

time they’re not going to contest was it

Arizona Nevada hasn’t been decided own

in Nevada still I think Alaska finally

got their stuff done

ioral far apart yeah it’s funny I was

doing a for my other podcast I was doing

an interview with a that’s a caterer she

owns a like a bed and breakfast and

wedding venue and all this up north of

Fairbanks and she made the point to me

that just you don’t understand how far

things are up here and the

transportation is not real good the

entire state of Alaska if you Encompass

the entire state of Alaska it would

literally cover half of the United

States absolutely and people don’t

realize the land mass of the United

States the 48 contiguous states is

almost similar to the same as Europe

and Australia and Australia only has 25

30 million people yeah that’s because

there’s 28 million that live just on the

nobody lives in the middle of the

country yeah it’s just a big empty space

in the middle I watched one of those

train shows one time where they were oh

take a trip from Perth to to Sydney and

it’s okay why would you want to do that

because there’s nothing exciting for

that entire trip it doesn’t stop it just

keeps going and all non-stop desert no

cool you’re going to kick us off with

some Halloween costumes right all right

I am here we go so this is for the Post

Halloween hangover in case you’re still

crashing from your sugar high there were

some great other costumes that we found

we’re going to buzz through these pretty

quickly so here’s the sales force order

form just to let you know it’s clunky

software there’s a scary price it’s a

terrifying interface so this was pretty

good I saw this and this is

SC I can say

then we have oh hold

on the Karen

dog it includes a wig a sweater list of

spirits managers hermit form list of

worst restaurants in New England for all

the Karens I hate that expression by the

way and a grievance Complaint Form that

they’ll never fill

out by the way dog not included dog not

included yeah you can tell is right by

yod

D how about for the unprepared hiker it

includes flipflops cotton t-shirt

sunburn one empty energy drink hopefully

it’s not a monster drink full of garbage

and of course delusions of grandeur

sense of direction not included yes I

think we all know who some of those

people

are how about how about time I’ve been

to Washington there’s been some idiot

who’s gotten themselves caught up on

either Mount Hood or Mount reneer yeah

wearing birken STS and sucking on

granola yeah exactly how about the

professional talker it includes a Sho a

suit shoes tie gold microphone and extra

virgin olive oil I don’t understand that

last part I really don’t get it but the

only thing I can think of would be

instead of the gold microphone the

little ear the little ear one that hangs

off that they all the professional no

but I don’t understand the extra virgin

olive oil is that keep the throat

lubricated I really don’t know that’s

weird but that’s the only one that makes

sense to me so how about the graduate

student we all know these right lab

notebook with DET with details of failed

experiments backpack that’s about to

fall apart and of course coffee but it

doesn’t include self self-esteem a will

to live or diploma but they’re going to

continue to live in the parents basement

that’s exactly right I’ve talked to so

many kids just made me laugh they’re

okay I’m going getting out of school I’m

going to go ahead and go to graduate

school what are you going to go to

graduate school for oh because I I need

this to get a job I’m like why don’t you

get a job and have the place that you

work pay for graduate school it’d be

easier than but then you would have to

work yep and trying to recall some of my

80s days DJ di it includes sunglasses a

giant bag of popcorn we didn’t do LSD

and we didn’t have Crocs back then we

did have the collar pops and the the

fuchsia and the exciting glowing colors

so what can I tell you nice I like it I

know you did the collar Pop I did a few

times yep you had to do the collar pop

back then you had the Wayfair sunglasses

everything else all right here we go the

weatherman I know I’ve talked about this

he’s only right about half the time

remember we talked about this and he

still kept his job he only talks about

weather and then when you see them in

person he shorter

we have one here on the in Austin that’s

on the the news Channel that I watch in

Austin he he wears one of those kind of

skinny suit things and he’s got like a

wildly oversized head so he just he

looks like a basically like he looks

like a giant lollipop is the best way I

can explain it yeah or a bobblehead is

another way of putting it well this

should have said doesn’t include

platform shoes yes yeah because he’s got

tennis shoes on there all right and how

about the 30 minut phone call you could

go as this costume it blows up every day

it could have been a 15minute call and

it should have just been a text an email

in my opinion and of course this is an

adult-sized

costume all right I think that was it

yep that was it all right very cool in

honor of the presidential election I

wanted to go through a tri I actually

found this trivia exercise and I thought

it would be fun for us to go through

today all right Ron so here’s your

chance to to be a hero that’s an easy

one election day true or false election

day is the same day November 5th every

year unless it falls on a Sunday true or

false we know that’s

false false you are correct it’s always

the first Tuesday following the first

Wednesday of November per federal law

leave it to the it couldn’t just be like

the first Tuesday it’s got to be the

first Tuesday after the first Wednesday

look they’ve been crying that they

should have it on a Saturday so people

don’t have to worry about going to work

or claiming it a Federal holiday which

wouldn’t be a bad idea either I’d rather

do it as a Federal holiday than a

Saturday make it simpler yeah I I would

say just make it as a Federal holiday

makes it a hell of a lot easier and then

you know at least people can get off

school and work and everything else but

you know what with the mailin vote with

the mailin voting and the early

balloting it may not make a difference

anymore yeah and I think this time we

saw more like early voting than we’ve

ever seen which is great it’s I don’t

I’ve never understood why people waited

until the last day to wait in line

forever I’m like just I they were

showing lines of 50 60 people standing

outside with an hour to go yeah what

what have you been

doing those are the same people that are

like waiting till the last day of the

month to get their car registered or

they’re the people that go to the post

office um on April 15th at 11:58 to drop

off their and the same ones that shop

Christmas Eve because they haven’t

gotten anything yet that’s exactly right

so I don’t think you’re GNA change them

at all all right what are swing States

states that have larger fluctuations of

voter turnout States whose ballots are

counted last and decide on the election

I’ve got this behind my screen so states

that are blue or red or states with the

most Ved That Swing direct overall vote

what is your answer r d states with the

most total

voters whoops where are we here yep

there you go yeah the last one with the

most total voters I think I put the

wrong answer in here there is no right

wrong one what oh it’s definitely the

fourth one yeah it is the fourth one

sorry I put the wrong answer in there

we’re going to skip over the next one

which amendment granted the you are

right on by the way which amendment

granted the women the right to

vote I’m going to say the 20th because I

know the 22nd amendment was to limit

presidential terms to two terms so I had

to be before that because it was 1920 so

I’m gonna say the

20th could be the 19th it’s the 19th

19th okay so 1920 you did get the year

right yeah I can’t remember all the all

the different years that they did all

the Amendments okay all right all right

here we go so apparently I put the same

question in twice what are swing States

actually there are states that aren’t

solidly blue or

red yeah but it’s the same thing as the

fourth swing director yeah yes a no it

doesn’t necessar no no state is always

blue or red every state is voted one way

or the other all right I’m listen I’m

protesting that one I’m just saying some

are

purple I’m protesting it all right so

the last question apparently I didn’t

get it

in so here answer’s yes here we go have

you ever have we ever had a president

who did not represent a political

party I’m sure the answer is yes but

perau ran in ’92 96 under his own party

is that considered a political party or

is an independent so it’s a little tough

to say what does that mean a political

party he was never a president he was a

presidential candidate president yeah

George Washington yep George Washington

is the only one somehow I got these all

out of whack here yeah I got these all

out of whack so yes it was George

Washington is the only President who

never was part of a president political

party remember they wanted to say they

wanted to designate him as king and he

said no we’ll do President we don’t want

to deal with Kings anymore there we go I

loved it all

right so we had one hell of a day

yesterday on the markets my Theory you

know I had clients calling me all day

what’s going on are We invested and all

that and I said yes we’re invested no

change from yeah it’s there’s no change

from what we did on the first of the

month which is when I rebalance client

accounts my theory with yesterday yes

some of it’s potentially with Trump and

all that and policies but I think my

take on this and I’ll get yours Ron was

the simple fact that this is the first

election we’ve had in almost eight years

where it wasn’t then contested and

fought over for the next three months um

it’s just done at this point you know

what I I’ll give you 10 or 15% Y in my

opinion that had to do with it because I

think somebody knew something four to

five days to go because all you had to

do was just look at the markets look at

gold look at certain things they knew

but the media had to say it’s still too

close to call because had to have

something to talk about but it really

wasn’t that close in the gr think about

Georgia and Pennsylvania they weren’t

even close yeah and those and and

Democrats needed to win those two states

and they were not even close so where

I’m going with this I think it was more

about people voted with their wallet

meaning you know what forget about

everything else they just felt Trump was

going to be better for the economy for

the next four years and I think this was

probably the weirdest election from an

overall perspective it’s the weirdest

election not because of the candidates

or anything like that but it’s the first

election I think since what Cleveland

Grover Cleveland’s the only other one

that this has happened with but it’s the

first election where you knew the record

of the previous administration yeah the

both candidates had a record at that

point so you didn’t have somebody who’s

coming in cold you had two that had a

record they both have been experienced

although she’s the vice president she’s

still part of Administration and so she

understands the inner working what

happened twice before I know with

Theodore Roosevelt because after how he

was office he picked his vice president

and then he tried to run against him and

lost yeah yeah and but that was a CA

yeah you another instance of you at

least knew what their policies were and

and their performance and all that so

yeah it was a really weird election and

of course in this time day and age so

much more ability to get information out

there so it was just a weird animal this

time around and you know I think the the

best part for me although I stayed up

until 1:00 in the morning I really want

to see it um just to go because I

wouldn’t have been able to fall asleep

I’m that big of a political junkie when

it comes to that but it was just good

for us to get done and be like okay

we’re not having to think about right

like it or not it’s done hopefully there

won’t be any civil unrest absolutely and

I don’t think there’s going to be at

this point it’s I think one of the the

cool Parts is for the first time in a

long time we’ve had since Obama we’ve

not had somebody win the popular vote

and the electoral vote bya any kind of a

majority which has been nice so it’s

just like it’s done no Biden and 20 had

the popular and the Electoral he did but

it wasn’t very it wasn’t by very much it

was pretty close okay gotcha so yeah

this one was a little bit of a wider

sloth which is nice all right what

happens after the election because

that’s the next question my clients have

been asking me what happens after after

the election what how does this happen

what what goes on and I actually what

prompted me was I was listening to Ken

fiser the other day and he actually made

mention of this chart that CNBC had on

because they put all the elections down

really since more recent from 80 onward

and pretty much if the market is

positive by the time that president is

elected typically a month later we are

positive and typically by year end were

positive the only instances in history

where it’s been the opposite of that

have been when we’ve been in some pretty

ugly markets so was the last one Obama

coming in in ’08 that there was nothing

that he could fix in that short period

of time it didn’t bot him until March of

09 yeah yeah and it was just that those

negatives if you look at 2000 we were

already starting to tail over mainly in

the tech Market was the S&P was starting

to come off but but the tech Market was

for sure down from March of that year

but in most cases if we’re in a positive

Market we’ll have a positive year end

which is I think that makes sense we’re

rolling along the new president really

doesn’t have the ability to make any

adjustments and all that so if you’re

rolling along you’re rolling along

pretty good so then the next question

that I get is yeah but that’s fine okay

so we should be there what does it look

like a year after so first and foremost

I found these charts actually on T

prices website they’ve got a really

great article if you want to look it up

and I’ll put it in the show notes but

looking at both

volatility and performance so the and

this is volatility when we’re in

presidential election periods so

typically volatility one year prior six

month prior and three month prayer

actually is a little bit less which was

surprising to me because I’ve seen some

real crazy goofy stuff and certainly

August and September of this year were

goofy crazy volatility wise one month

after or one month prior one month after

typically volatility bumps up a little

bit and then it rides a little bit lower

in these presidential election years and

one year after typically we have a

slightly less volatile market during

that time period so what’s performance

typically look like and specifically

they had a chart talking about when an

incumbent party loses so this was

actually cool because I hadn’t really

looked at this stat before so the blue

is when the incumbent party wins the

green is when the incumbent party loses

now I think part of this is skewed a

little bit because so many times in the

past we’ve had you know two presidential

terms this just this in this recent time

period we’ve gone one party to the next

party to the next party back and you

don’t have that second term kind of

things start to fall apart a little bit

but let’s look at history one year prior

six months prior three months prior one

month prior typically if the incumbent

party wins we are underperforming going

into the year which makes a hell of a

lot of sense because everybody’s going I

don’t you’ve got pretty much half of the

country is worried about what’s it going

to look like if this person gets elected

again so they’re thinking thinking one

month after three months after six

months after nine months after and one

year after if the incumbent party wins

yeah the Market’s kind of chugging along

it’s not doing as well if the incumbent

party loses though it’s interesting we

have a pretty big leadup going into the

election a really big leadup that last

month which kind of we saw this time

time we saw a pretty good pop and then

typically we see outperformance going

out to the follow following year now

does that mean that’s what’s going to

happen this

time I have no clue I think we have

somewhat odds in our favor that we

should have at least a pretty decent

Market through I would say mid year and

then what’s anybody’s game after that

because there’s gonna be a lot of juking

and jiving and things going on how about

despite the fact that he got reelected

historically First full year of a

presidential term is usually an upe yeah

the second year is typically the worst

out of all four because just of an

economic cycle and things like that but

he’s going to get all yes people in his

administration he may overheat the

economy and it may burn out in the tail

end of it who knows but it should do

well next through next year pending no

either Catalyst in the financial Market

or geopal look we could say that every

episode The the temperature certainly is

rising yeah you’ve got a lot of conflict

around the world hopefully we have a

stronger POS I don’t know hopefully we

have a stronger position in the world

and we can bring some rational thought

to the world at this point so we’ll see

but what’s really the the thing that’s

going to drive a lot of stuff is today’s

fed meeting because this is the first

fed meeting after the presidential

election so they don’t have although

they’re not political they don’t have

that political pressure on them to do

anything which I don’t I honestly don’t

think they that comes into play I I when

I hear these guys hope not yeah you w to

hope not I don’t think there’s that

political pressure on them it’s so funny

because it doesn’t matter what they do

leading up to a presidential election if

they make any change one side is going

to complain that they didn’t or they’re

doing it help the other side and all

that which we heard going into this but

the reality is they’re looking at

numbers the biggest number and we left

off with our last show prior to this

saying that the next day we were going

to see an employment number and it was

if I can’t say it was more dismal than

it was there was no private sector it

was only government jobs yeah which and

that was only 12,000 which was

ridiculous I mean that’s just

absolutely I don’t know if it was the I

don’t know if it was the Bureau of Labor

Statistics their final final thing to

say all right we’re just not even gonna

lie this time we’re just gonna do it and

be done with it and show you what’s

really happening but that told me a lot

about what’s going on and it told me a

lot about what I’m hearing from the

recruiters that work out of my office

here that or in my co-working space I’m

hearing this that the job market has not

been real good and they’re struggling

to they’re struggling to get their

companies to hire more people and stuff

like that hopefully we’ll maybe we’re

getting through the point where it’s

okay now we have some shity going

forward and we can start hiring again

comfortably yeah the other problem too

is there has to be viable candidates too

if you’re out of a job today there’s got

to be a reason yeah I’m saying not

working not that you have a job and

looking but if you’re not working and

you haven’t had a job for a

while why yeah what yeah nonperformance

other issues it always bring at work it

always brings me back to National vampo

Christmas Vacation why hasn’t he got a

job yet he’s holding out for a

management

job hey can I have a beer yeah here’s

fine I’ll open up a new one for

myself and then from the first one my

daddy says I’m the best kiss sir

yeah hey do you have any video games no

I’ve got asteroids yeah my dad’s got

those too I he can’t get off the toilet

some

days oh had the best movies I would say

it’s my thought process my portfolio

structure right now is in the market uh

little bit of little bit of fixed income

but not very much um because I see

interest rates Rising I think my take on

it is that the bond market is thinking

that we’re going to see more inflation

maybe we will maybe we won’t especially

if there’s tariffs yeah which hasn’t

necessarily been true that’s once again

when you get economists involved oh yeah

that’s it always happens when there’s

tariffs well we had tariffs pretty much

for the full first thing and we didn’t

have much inflation they did rise but it

got settled after a while as of it and

like I said I think it from Trump’s it’s

a negotiating tactic more than something

else and if you can replace some of the

ridiculous amount of income taxes we pay

with tariffs I I’m okay with that and if

we can get energy prices down I’m really

okay with that because they have come

down yeah and that’s what drives

everything if we can get especially

diesel cost down because that’s that’s

the transportation Fuel and it’s amazing

how diesel has been significantly higher

for a long time than gas and that had

not traditionally been that way I got

you hey man all good stuff we’ll have to

see how things shake out with the the

Fed rate today and tomorrow and yeah

what’s your

prediction you know what I’m going to

stick for what I said in the beginning

of the year I said one to two rate Cuts

now I didn’t think the first one was

going to be 50 basis points but I think

they’ll I think there’ll be at least one

more rate cut before the end of the year

we have two meetings today and next

month I think it’s another I think it’s

25 basis points if it’s

50 we got to look deeper into this

there’s something wrong yeah like I said

I think they’re somewhat cautious and

they may look at that the employment

number and say okay let’s see one more

month of that if it’s that bad again or

was that a weird anomaly or something

like that so my take would be

2525 for this year could be totally

wrong was totally wrong the last time

but I think think we’ll be down a full

percentage 100 basis points by year end

which I think is The Right Move we’re

seeing you think 25 and 25 total one I

mean I’m seeing it from because I

service in my other business my

co-working space I service small

businesses and we’re struggling to we

have one office open that we that never

happens and it’s been open for four

months now business owners are just not

making decisions so it’ll be interesting

to see what happens over the next month

or so but I think I just feel like the

fed’s going to go okay yeah last week

was really bad employment wise but let’s

see if that’s a trend that we’re seeing

it has been a downtrend going into the

election so I I don’t know it it could

be 25 could be 50 but I’m if I had to

bet I’d say 25 yeah the 10 and the

10year treasury hit 44 this morning

that’s a it’s almost what a 75 to an 80

basis point Rise From The Bottom a month

and a half ago yeah I haven’t I haven’t

looked at the yield curve of you is it

still normal no it’s been reined meaning

uh the 10 year is higher than the two

but not by much okay all right let’s

cover that next week I like it all right

guys thanks a lot for joining us on the

show we’re here to do this stuff for you

and to make ourselves laugh sometimes

and talk about movies so thank you very

much for joining us make sure that you

subscribe to the channel make sure you

give us that upvote comments there’s

been lots of cool comments lately and

I’ve been answering them as they come in

and I really appreciate that from you

guys because it’s fun to have that

little direct connection with you so

thanks a lot and we will see you back

here the very next time