TRANSCRIPT

good morning sense of things and welcome

to the New Year Ron and I have uh been

piling up a lot of great information

over the last couple weeks but we also

took a couple weeks off just to relax a

little bit and enjoy family friends and

time off a little bit from work cookies

and and cookies cookies lots of cookies

cookies pounds

worth so on today’s show we’re going to

talk a little bit about it we’re filming

this show on the day of President

Carter’s funeral so I’ve got a few facts

that you may not have heard about him or

you may not know about him and I’m going

to cover some economics on this show so

stay tuned we’ll be right back on in

just a minute

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[Applause]

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hey everybody Welcome to the sense of

things Ron and I are here Ron Happy New

Year my friend Happy New Year to you too

I gotta tell you I know we were just

joking about the cookies I’m not kidding

I gained seven pounds in December no way

man I I didn’t go to the gym as much or

whenever I’m not going to say I sat

around on the rear as much but holy crap

man I don’t know what was in those

cookies whether it was just pure lard or

what but holy Ma Girl the funny thing is

yeah I typically I don’t really

eat a lot during the holiday yeah

there’s that Thanksgiving Day and then

Christmas day where you you have a big

meal or whatever but I’m just not a

sweets fan so I don’t eat a lot of

sweets so this time of the year is so

funny my wife and I ended up for

Christmas it’s like each of us oh we

need to get stocking stuffers so we end

up buying each other like these big

things of chocolate and all that I’m

like literally we’re going to live off

of this for the next year to the point

where the chocolate just gets like white

and yucky because we just don’t eat that

much we might eat a piece of chocolate

per day and that’s it if I had to add it

up and it’s a pure guess I probably

received five to seven pounds of

chocolate over 10 over 10 pounds of

cookies and give and I look I shared I

gave away hey maybe you got keep that

one looks good let me try that one yeah

one one little bit here and there yeah

I’m not kidding this year and I

appreciate it because I love to give

stuff to clients and whatever but the

amount of

candy or chocolate and cookies was in

abundance to say the least that is

awesome that tells you’re loved man that

you you’ve done J Clos told me that it

was in abundance too yeah that’s great

we say goodbye to President Carter when

I think back both of us grew up in that

time when he was president and the

presidency was not exactly

the I will say Stellar he was dealt a

bad deck to begin with but he didn’t do

much with it but to quote U F Scott

Fitzgerald we don’t get a second we

don’t get a second act in most cases but

I think he really got a hell of a second

act I agree he’s one of the few

presidents I’ve ever seen that

just I whatever he did afterwards was so

much more than he ever did as a

president so I wanted to share today

just some facts five quick facts that I

got from the The Carter Center and the

Library of Congress of things that I

didn’t really know or I knew but didn’t

know very much of so here are top five

top backs that you may or may not know

about President Carter so he was born

October 1st 2024 Plains Georgia he was

the first person in his father’s side of

the family to graduate from high school

I saw an interview with him because I’ve

been playing a lot of that on the news

at four years old he knew he wanted to

go to the Naval Academy that was his

only dream goal and he entered it

entered Annapolis during World War II

graduated in the class of 1946 so he

didn’t serve in World War II however he

was one of the first nuclear engineers

in the Nuclear Navy U which was pretty

cool interesting I thought there might

have been another one I know FDR was in

charge of the Navy y before he became

president but I wonder how many West

Point graduates because I think the

Army’s been around longer than the Navy

I don’t know about that but that’s kind

of curious to know that yeah I I trying

to think you have

Ike oh that’s true Eisenhower yeah it’s

there’s just not a whole lot of generals

or naval officers or whatever we would

had McCain won he would have been the

second Naval Academy graduate he gave up

the the thing he’ always wanted to be

was a military officer he had planned to

serve his time as a naval officer and he

wanted to retire in Hawaii that was his

goal that he and rosin um but he ended

up having to give up his military career

after his father died and their Peanut

Farm was failing and so he got he still

didn’t want to not serve something and

so he ended up be as a parent he became

part of the local school board which is

which launched his his career eventually

becoming a state senator governor

and then of course

president after his presidency he

founded the Carter Center which played

an active role in human rights and

disease prevention issues

globally and this was the thing that was

the surprise to me because I thought he

had actually founded Habitat for

Humanity he didn’t he just publicized it

and he and rosin were involved in it for

so long for me not really understanding

the beginnings and knowing much about

Habitat for Humanity he so

identified with it that it’s just

amazing that I I thought I think there’s

video of him out there hammering Nails

2x4s and whatever up until I think when

he was in his 90s he was like5 96 and he

was still out there you know every year

involved in those projects and stuff

like that up until the point where I

think when he turned 97 that’s when he

went in the hospice and he just couldn’t

be out there anymore this was a surprise

to me you said you knew this but I

always thought he had received his Nobel

Prize early on after all the Camp David

Peace Accords and all that but he

actually received his Nobel Prize in

2002 and it wasn’t just for the Peace of

cords but it was for decades of him just

always being out there overdue yeah and

it was interesting because you as you

start to look at a lot of what he did

afterwards he was actually for a lot of

presidents that one guy who could they

could parachute into certain areas who

wasn’t necessarily part of the

government and he would go in there and

negotiate things in a lot of cases so

just really interesting career

afterwards and I think the two things

that I knew but it was just nice he and

Roslin were married for 77 years the

love of his life first love of his life

and 100 years old oldest president ever

actually correct me if I’m wrong I know

25 years of marriage is silver 50 years

is gold and my parents had that is 75

Diamond what do they call 75 if you make

it to 75 yeah so so few people make it

that far I don’t know I mean I would

assume it’s like diamond or something

like that I got so actually it is

because remember I I was actually over

in

London for Queen Elizabeth’s Diamond

Jubilee which was 75 years okay there

you go I I was a I I think I had heard

that but it was a guess yeah great guess

so couple things this week I just me

being the the economic geek I always try

and look at what’s coming up so this is

off of briefing.com uh couple things

really this I think that are of high

importance we’ve got some additional job

claims they’ve actually gone down this

week continuing claims floating around

where they’ve been so that really the

only thing that’s of high importance

today tomorrow is a big day because we

get non-farm payrolls private payrolls

average hourly earnings all those things

that are related around that which are

typically High impacts and you’re

looking at like non-farm payrolls was

227 or

227,000 uh prior

to this month so that it would be last

month’s uh report which was November uh

estimates are that’s going to drop off

pretty

significantly tomorrow and who knows

where it can go because it’s been so

inaccurate this year or than this last

year it’s been amazing um average hourly

earnings should be in line unemployment

rate staying in line we think uh average

work week staying in line so not a lot

of changes and if any of those move

could really cause the markets to move a

little bit because I think the biggest

thing I’m here ing is everybody’s

waiting and seeing what the fed’s going

to do and and they basically said we’re

we’re waiting that we’re in wait and see

mode what are your thoughts

Ron uh I gotta tell you if you want to

go back to December of 2023 and I know

we talked about this in Prior podcast

you had they were talking about possibly

what four to six Cuts last year we only

had three yeah up that I that was one of

the few things I nailed on the head

where I said there’ be two possibly

three this year now they’re expecting

one to two possibly three and I know

it’s a little bit of a right turn but

I’ll take a right and come back so

everybody has up their price Targets

this year we did that on our last

podcast a lot of people have taken

recession off the table so I have heard

two people one in person yesterday from

First Trust their top two economists Bob

West

I’m sorry WBUR and Bob Stein yep and

they are both calling for a recession

this year interesting and I and

typically I’ve always called them herbl

if you’ve ever talk in the last yeah

it’s R to hear Brian I’ve met him many

of times I used to go to the First Trust

conferences and Brian pretty much and

he’s pretty damn

right I got to tell you and it’s

interesting I I I heard Bob Stein talk

in person yesterday I heard Brian on a

couple of podcast I’m sorry a podcast

and a couple of interviews and it’s

interesting not all because they brought

up a few other the things but the

majority of the core reasons that they

both have as their conviction is stuff

you and I have been talking about for

over 12 months yeah we were just

early oh we’ll see what happens I think

we got to go down before we got to go up

I still think we’ll have a good year but

uh and I mean if you know I think is

going to happen with the FED is they’re

G to hang interest rates out there for a

lot longer because they feel like we’re

going to see all kinds of inflation and

things like that so I mean that just

puts more stress on companies and

everything else so yeah we might see

less

regulation I gotta tell you I know I

bitched about it before I don’t go out a

lot you know I like to go out as all

right get the hell out of the house

whatever I just a basic breakfast lunch

and dinner I’m not even talking about

anything extravagant it’s 20 30% higher

minimum a live high off the hog

especially when I go out I like a nice

dinner every now and then but I just

cannot believe the and all the

restaurants are full my man oh I know

that’s that’s the scary part before

Crystal and I just never really even

thought about it but it’s just all of a

sudden okay I we go out for breakfast we

don’t do a whole we’re don’t go to fancy

places for breakfast and stuff like that

and you look and you’re like Jesus I

just spent

$50 some eggs and bacing at this point

we’ve got to see some kind of relief

hopefully hopefully with increased oil

production stuff like that and getting

the prices down hopefully that’ll go

through the system but the problem is

that it ain’t gonna happen just like

overnight it’s gonna take we’re gonna

have some fun doing podcast this year

that’s for sure oh yeah I think so in a

few weeks I think so coming up next week

on the what’s coming out we’ve got core

PPI we’ve also got CPI coming out next

week so this will be the first read of

the new year we’re going to have retail

sales coming out which that’ll Encompass

all of the the December the end of the

holidays and stuff like that so I think

it’s going to be interesting because

that if we see those Spike up or

anything like that I think we might see

the market pull back a little bit

because basically looking at the FED may

not drop rates until later in the year

which I think personally that’s my

thought processes we won’t see much

activity from them until maybe Midsummer

or later theyve been wait in SE mode

unless something blows up at that point

yeah so to answer your question because

I took a right turn I came back I I I’m

G to say the same thing at least two

possibly three this year and if there’s

more then yes you and I were 12 to 18

months late yep absolutely there’s four

or more than there wi yeah there’s some

issues but the interest rates are

staying persistently up there in fact

they’ve been slowly Rising I think the

10e was 446 yesterday and it had been as

low as like 395 just a few months ago th

those are things that start to spill out

into mortgages and the real estate

market and everything else well I have

to say mortgage rates are now 7.1 and

change

okay that’s got to go through the system

somehow you thought interest rates

coming down mortgage rates would come

down I think that’s now based on the 10e

which now is about to breach 4.7 which

yeah which is it always is based on the

10-year and that’s what people think

well the fed’s lowering rates they’re

only lowering short-term rates they

don’t control the long-term or the

midterm rates which is really what most

things are based off of I think we’re

we’re in for a little bit of headwinds

going into into this year we’re seeing

some rotation in the stock market

although we’re seeing a Resurgence of

the Nifty five or seven or whatever you

call them we’re starting to see a little

bit of movement in the rest of the

market but I think until we see

hopefully

some I hope that the consumer isn’t

stretched so far that they can’t

continue to spend is the way I would

look at it yeah that’s a conversation

for another time because we know that

most of it’s going on credit card debt

carry over about $1.2 trillion yeah I

don’t how that could and quick story

quick thing so my father who’s about to

turn 84 got a thing in the mail my

parents shop at koh’s every now and then

the retail store so he got a credit card

application they wanted a Kohl’s credit

card yeah at 3.75%

it’s just they the literally lone shark

rates but I understand it but Department

cards your credit cards went out when

you know everybody had a Visa or

Mastercard for years but if you wanted

to finance your clothing purchase of

coals

30.5% but you get 10% off every time you

buy

there that’s we’ll make up for that

discount after when we carry it over

over for two months that’s exactly

correct it’s unreal I think an

interesting year to say the least you

and I will have plenty to talk about

this year um it is not going to be a

year to just sit back and not really pay

attention to it so folks make sure that

you subscribe to the channel so that you

don’t miss any of this stuff and we’re

going to continue to do good stuff like

this typically we do one to two shows

per week so you got to make sure you

your subscribed so you see them when

they come up so thanks a lot and we will

see you when you get or we’ll see you

the next time