TRANSCRIPT
to the New Year Ron and I have uh been
piling up a lot of great information
over the last couple weeks but we also
took a couple weeks off just to relax a
little bit and enjoy family friends and
time off a little bit from work cookies
and and cookies cookies lots of cookies
cookies pounds
worth so on today’s show we’re going to
talk a little bit about it we’re filming
this show on the day of President
Carter’s funeral so I’ve got a few facts
that you may not have heard about him or
you may not know about him and I’m going
to cover some economics on this show so
stay tuned we’ll be right back on in
just a minute
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[Applause]
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Holiday Indulgences and Weight Gain
hey everybody Welcome to the sense of
things Ron and I are here Ron Happy New
Year my friend Happy New Year to you too
I gotta tell you I know we were just
joking about the cookies I’m not kidding
I gained seven pounds in December no way
man I I didn’t go to the gym as much or
whenever I’m not going to say I sat
around on the rear as much but holy crap
man I don’t know what was in those
cookies whether it was just pure lard or
what but holy Ma Girl the funny thing is
yeah I typically I don’t really
eat a lot during the holiday yeah
there’s that Thanksgiving Day and then
Christmas day where you you have a big
meal or whatever but I’m just not a
sweets fan so I don’t eat a lot of
sweets so this time of the year is so
funny my wife and I ended up for
Christmas it’s like each of us oh we
need to get stocking stuffers so we end
up buying each other like these big
things of chocolate and all that I’m
like literally we’re going to live off
of this for the next year to the point
where the chocolate just gets like white
and yucky because we just don’t eat that
much we might eat a piece of chocolate
per day and that’s it if I had to add it
up and it’s a pure guess I probably
received five to seven pounds of
chocolate over 10 over 10 pounds of
cookies and give and I look I shared I
gave away hey maybe you got keep that
one looks good let me try that one yeah
one one little bit here and there yeah
I’m not kidding this year and I
appreciate it because I love to give
stuff to clients and whatever but the
amount of
candy or chocolate and cookies was in
abundance to say the least that is
awesome that tells you’re loved man that
you you’ve done J Clos told me that it
was in abundance too yeah that’s great
Remembering President Carter
we say goodbye to President Carter when
I think back both of us grew up in that
time when he was president and the
presidency was not exactly
the I will say Stellar he was dealt a
bad deck to begin with but he didn’t do
much with it but to quote U F Scott
Fitzgerald we don’t get a second we
don’t get a second act in most cases but
I think he really got a hell of a second
act I agree he’s one of the few
presidents I’ve ever seen that
just I whatever he did afterwards was so
much more than he ever did as a
president so I wanted to share today
just some facts five quick facts that I
got from the The Carter Center and the
Library of Congress of things that I
didn’t really know or I knew but didn’t
know very much of so here are top five
top backs that you may or may not know
about President Carter so he was born
October 1st 2024 Plains Georgia he was
the first person in his father’s side of
the family to graduate from high school
I saw an interview with him because I’ve
been playing a lot of that on the news
at four years old he knew he wanted to
go to the Naval Academy that was his
only dream goal and he entered it
entered Annapolis during World War II
graduated in the class of 1946 so he
didn’t serve in World War II however he
was one of the first nuclear engineers
in the Nuclear Navy U which was pretty
cool interesting I thought there might
have been another one I know FDR was in
charge of the Navy y before he became
president but I wonder how many West
Point graduates because I think the
Army’s been around longer than the Navy
I don’t know about that but that’s kind
of curious to know that yeah I I trying
to think you have
Ike oh that’s true Eisenhower yeah it’s
there’s just not a whole lot of generals
or naval officers or whatever we would
had McCain won he would have been the
second Naval Academy graduate he gave up
the the thing he’ always wanted to be
was a military officer he had planned to
serve his time as a naval officer and he
wanted to retire in Hawaii that was his
goal that he and rosin um but he ended
up having to give up his military career
after his father died and their Peanut
Farm was failing and so he got he still
didn’t want to not serve something and
so he ended up be as a parent he became
part of the local school board which is
which launched his his career eventually
becoming a state senator governor
and then of course
president after his presidency he
founded the Carter Center which played
an active role in human rights and
disease prevention issues
globally and this was the thing that was
the surprise to me because I thought he
had actually founded Habitat for
Humanity he didn’t he just publicized it
and he and rosin were involved in it for
so long for me not really understanding
the beginnings and knowing much about
Habitat for Humanity he so
identified with it that it’s just
amazing that I I thought I think there’s
video of him out there hammering Nails
2x4s and whatever up until I think when
he was in his 90s he was like5 96 and he
was still out there you know every year
involved in those projects and stuff
like that up until the point where I
think when he turned 97 that’s when he
went in the hospice and he just couldn’t
be out there anymore this was a surprise
to me you said you knew this but I
always thought he had received his Nobel
Prize early on after all the Camp David
Peace Accords and all that but he
actually received his Nobel Prize in
2002 and it wasn’t just for the Peace of
cords but it was for decades of him just
always being out there overdue yeah and
it was interesting because you as you
start to look at a lot of what he did
afterwards he was actually for a lot of
presidents that one guy who could they
could parachute into certain areas who
wasn’t necessarily part of the
government and he would go in there and
negotiate things in a lot of cases so
just really interesting career
afterwards and I think the two things
that I knew but it was just nice he and
Roslin were married for 77 years the
love of his life first love of his life
and 100 years old oldest president ever
actually correct me if I’m wrong I know
25 years of marriage is silver 50 years
is gold and my parents had that is 75
Diamond what do they call 75 if you make
it to 75 yeah so so few people make it
that far I don’t know I mean I would
assume it’s like diamond or something
like that I got so actually it is
because remember I I was actually over
in
London for Queen Elizabeth’s Diamond
Jubilee which was 75 years okay there
you go I I was a I I think I had heard
that but it was a guess yeah great guess
Economic Updates and Predictions
so couple things this week I just me
being the the economic geek I always try
and look at what’s coming up so this is
off of briefing.com uh couple things
really this I think that are of high
importance we’ve got some additional job
claims they’ve actually gone down this
week continuing claims floating around
where they’ve been so that really the
only thing that’s of high importance
today tomorrow is a big day because we
get non-farm payrolls private payrolls
average hourly earnings all those things
that are related around that which are
typically High impacts and you’re
looking at like non-farm payrolls was
227 or
227,000 uh prior
to this month so that it would be last
month’s uh report which was November uh
estimates are that’s going to drop off
pretty
significantly tomorrow and who knows
where it can go because it’s been so
inaccurate this year or than this last
year it’s been amazing um average hourly
earnings should be in line unemployment
rate staying in line we think uh average
work week staying in line so not a lot
of changes and if any of those move
could really cause the markets to move a
little bit because I think the biggest
thing I’m here ing is everybody’s
waiting and seeing what the fed’s going
to do and and they basically said we’re
we’re waiting that we’re in wait and see
mode what are your thoughts
Ron uh I gotta tell you if you want to
go back to December of 2023 and I know
we talked about this in Prior podcast
you had they were talking about possibly
what four to six Cuts last year we only
had three yeah up that I that was one of
the few things I nailed on the head
where I said there’ be two possibly
three this year now they’re expecting
one to two possibly three and I know
it’s a little bit of a right turn but
I’ll take a right and come back so
everybody has up their price Targets
this year we did that on our last
podcast a lot of people have taken
recession off the table so I have heard
two people one in person yesterday from
First Trust their top two economists Bob
West
I’m sorry WBUR and Bob Stein yep and
they are both calling for a recession
this year interesting and I and
typically I’ve always called them herbl
if you’ve ever talk in the last yeah
it’s R to hear Brian I’ve met him many
of times I used to go to the First Trust
conferences and Brian pretty much and
he’s pretty damn
right I got to tell you and it’s
interesting I I I heard Bob Stein talk
in person yesterday I heard Brian on a
couple of podcast I’m sorry a podcast
and a couple of interviews and it’s
interesting not all because they brought
up a few other the things but the
majority of the core reasons that they
both have as their conviction is stuff
you and I have been talking about for
over 12 months yeah we were just
early oh we’ll see what happens I think
we got to go down before we got to go up
I still think we’ll have a good year but
uh and I mean if you know I think is
going to happen with the FED is they’re
G to hang interest rates out there for a
lot longer because they feel like we’re
going to see all kinds of inflation and
things like that so I mean that just
puts more stress on companies and
everything else so yeah we might see
less
regulation I gotta tell you I know I
bitched about it before I don’t go out a
lot you know I like to go out as all
right get the hell out of the house
whatever I just a basic breakfast lunch
and dinner I’m not even talking about
anything extravagant it’s 20 30% higher
minimum a live high off the hog
especially when I go out I like a nice
dinner every now and then but I just
cannot believe the and all the
restaurants are full my man oh I know
that’s that’s the scary part before
Crystal and I just never really even
thought about it but it’s just all of a
sudden okay I we go out for breakfast we
don’t do a whole we’re don’t go to fancy
places for breakfast and stuff like that
and you look and you’re like Jesus I
just spent
$50 some eggs and bacing at this point
we’ve got to see some kind of relief
hopefully hopefully with increased oil
production stuff like that and getting
the prices down hopefully that’ll go
through the system but the problem is
that it ain’t gonna happen just like
overnight it’s gonna take we’re gonna
have some fun doing podcast this year
that’s for sure oh yeah I think so in a
few weeks I think so coming up next week
on the what’s coming out we’ve got core
PPI we’ve also got CPI coming out next
week so this will be the first read of
the new year we’re going to have retail
sales coming out which that’ll Encompass
all of the the December the end of the
holidays and stuff like that so I think
it’s going to be interesting because
that if we see those Spike up or
anything like that I think we might see
the market pull back a little bit
because basically looking at the FED may
not drop rates until later in the year
which I think personally that’s my
thought processes we won’t see much
activity from them until maybe Midsummer
or later theyve been wait in SE mode
unless something blows up at that point
yeah so to answer your question because
I took a right turn I came back I I I’m
G to say the same thing at least two
possibly three this year and if there’s
more then yes you and I were 12 to 18
months late yep absolutely there’s four
or more than there wi yeah there’s some
issues but the interest rates are
staying persistently up there in fact
they’ve been slowly Rising I think the
10e was 446 yesterday and it had been as
low as like 395 just a few months ago th
those are things that start to spill out
into mortgages and the real estate
market and everything else well I have
to say mortgage rates are now 7.1 and
change
okay that’s got to go through the system
somehow you thought interest rates
coming down mortgage rates would come
down I think that’s now based on the 10e
which now is about to breach 4.7 which
yeah which is it always is based on the
10-year and that’s what people think
well the fed’s lowering rates they’re
only lowering short-term rates they
don’t control the long-term or the
midterm rates which is really what most
things are based off of I think we’re
we’re in for a little bit of headwinds
going into into this year we’re seeing
some rotation in the stock market
although we’re seeing a Resurgence of
the Nifty five or seven or whatever you
call them we’re starting to see a little
bit of movement in the rest of the
market but I think until we see
hopefully
some I hope that the consumer isn’t
stretched so far that they can’t
continue to spend is the way I would
Credit Card Woes and Final Thoughts
look at it yeah that’s a conversation
for another time because we know that
most of it’s going on credit card debt
carry over about $1.2 trillion yeah I
don’t how that could and quick story
quick thing so my father who’s about to
turn 84 got a thing in the mail my
parents shop at koh’s every now and then
the retail store so he got a credit card
application they wanted a Kohl’s credit
card yeah at 3.75%
it’s just they the literally lone shark
rates but I understand it but Department
cards your credit cards went out when
you know everybody had a Visa or
Mastercard for years but if you wanted
to finance your clothing purchase of
coals
30.5% but you get 10% off every time you
buy
there that’s we’ll make up for that
discount after when we carry it over
over for two months that’s exactly
correct it’s unreal I think an
interesting year to say the least you
and I will have plenty to talk about
this year um it is not going to be a
year to just sit back and not really pay
attention to it so folks make sure that
you subscribe to the channel so that you
don’t miss any of this stuff and we’re
going to continue to do good stuff like
this typically we do one to two shows
per week so you got to make sure you
your subscribed so you see them when
they come up so thanks a lot and we will
see you when you get or we’ll see you
the next time