hello audience from the sense of things

it’s Jeff and Ron here again once again

for another fantastic episode with a

little bit of trivia a little bit of

markets a little bit of post elction and

turkey day coming up next week so we’re

gonna get a little trivia on Turkey Day

we’re gonna get a little trivia and

revisit our friends the Florida man

Ron’s GNA get have that for us and last

but not least we’re going to talk a

little bit about the craziness in the

markets over the last week or so after

the election and move on from there so

stay tuned we’ll be right back on in

just one

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second hey everybody welcome to the

sense of things Ron how you doing my

friend good as we always say never a

dull moment I could not believe it when

I looked up I’m like crap thanksgiving’s

next week I gotta tell you I and it’s F

I have to work on that Friday but at

least half the day but I’m looking

forward to a couple of days where the

phone typically won’t be ringing and

whatever I love talking to people but

there’s got to be a reset button too and

I know a lot of people are looking

forward to it also yeah I’ve had all my

reviews with clients over the last

several weeks post elction and all that

and really going into the end of the

year with a little bit of work on books

finishing up the the retirement trap

book I’ve had out there written eight

books this year but this is I think the

most important book that I will ever

write so hopefully get that one edited

over the long weekend so I’m shutting

down about halfway through the day on

Wednesday I’ll be back on Monday and if

there’s an emergency I can’t really help

you because the markets will be closed

any all good all right you want to kick

off with some Florida man that’s oh yes

we are overdue I found a really great

website I got three good ones and look I

know this is a family show right you

know lock up the kids and and the the

tree huggers and the the good good going

church going folks so here we go so the

first one Florida man arrested for

pooping on a possum in public

and by the way today is his oneyear

anniversary so very quickly according to

the report the Florida man was observed

defecating on a deceased bossom with his

pants lowered and his high anal region

exposed police actually witnessed the

45y old person while he was taking up on

the I love how they write this stuff the

report also stated he did this during

rush hour traffic

what

this wait hold on so after being

detained and read his rights and then

denied then denied over pooping on the

dead of posum even told the cop that he

didn’t see

St

okay sorry folks so the lastly is the

report States physical evidence was

viewed at the scene which corroborates

the

oh it’s a tough job and someone has to

do it know that the cops had body

cameras on cuz all cops now have body

cameras on God you’re you’re CAU on

camera with your pants down and what

made you go this is the thing to do you

didn’t think it was a toilet that’s for

sure obviously not and you’re a Florida

man that that’s just the only way to

explain it yeah yeah all right we still

two more all right so Florida man

slashes 27 tires claim was sabotaged by

secret government exposure okay 27 tires

and 17 cars although he recorded he was

recorded committing the crime he had a

very serious reason why he did it

Florida man said he was being sabotaged

because he was exposed to secret

government information okay so they

picked you up and put you there and then

recorded you doing all the I okay wow

hold on and then look at the third

paragraph he said that he shouted out

that he was dealing with a secret

government influence and was told to act

like a security guard at the

airport all the security guards around

slashing people’s tires no and then

finally wow L man engaged in fully nude

romp on side of highway oh boy L man and

his fla woman need an episode arrested

we’re arrested for engaging in a fully

new sex excapade on the side of the

highway unfortunately for them the show

was witnessed by children and others

while passing by so this is my favorite

several of the witnesses dialed 911

after seeing the couple after they

walked by one witness described them as

naked from crack to Z going to

town I’m

sorry you can’t make this stuff up you

see you’re or on fam a Florida man about

a Florida man wow from crack to sack you

can’t make this stuff up honestly that

sounds like that should be a country

song I think so honestly eventually is

gonna be yeah yeah we should do a year

end special of just Florida man Florida

man yeah catch up on what happened this

year during

2024 oh God these are like these are a

year old at this point so there’s got to

be some good Florida man and like we

were talking about before the show I

just happened to notice on Max I was

flipping around the other night and

there is a show called Florida man which

I just absolutely have to watch now just

because of Florida man yeah absolutely

all right some more serious stuff I

don’t know how we get better from there

so this is great R rolz actually

produced this chart so if you invested

at the absolute worst times in history

what does that mean not at the bottom

that’s not the worst that’s actually the

best time yeah nested at the peak of the

market during certain cycles and you

just stayed in you still did well over

time yep if you think about it Black

Monday if you had invested at the peak

of that market you’re still up 11% a

year yeah this is annualized returns

even the dotc bubble think about how bad

that was and don’t forget think about

how overinflated things were that

weren’t even making money the great

financial crisis hence the GFC and then

obviously the pandemic for crying out

loud think about it right we went

through like the worst thing in a 100

years as far as a biological weapon and

all of a sudden even if you were at the

peak which was in late

2019 you still made

14.3% in the last four plus years but

here’s the reality of it people talk to

me about the great financial crisis and

all that happened and the big recession

but look at 2000 the dotc

bubble still after all these years 24

years it’s still only an average of 7.6%

I I tell clients all the time I’m like

yeah the Greek financial crisis was bad

but the do bubble was way worse because

it was three years of just straight down

because you combine that with 911 and

everything else it was bad and you see

how bad we lost an entire decade during

that time period um think about it the

great financial crisis the S&P was down

60% yeah yeah came roaring all the way

back obviously there’s been 15 to 25

stocks that have really pushed it

through but it doesn’t matter everything

got lifted yeah but still yeah they just

everything else didn’t go up as much

than those but it still all went up

Rising tide lifts all boats yep so

here’s uh an interesting thing now I

know we we always sound gloom and doom

every now and then and we have no idea

when this is going to break but I

thought this was very interesting to

bring up this was in Bloomberg it was in

many Publications by the New York

Federal Reserve Bank and I have an

explanation on the next slide but this

is the quick chart that these are

rejection rates and this does not talk

about my dating history I am talking

about credit card mortgage auto credit

card limit increases and mortgage

refinances these are the rejection rates

that have been peing I mean been spiking

yeah uh I can’t make this stuff up this

isn’t just you and I spinning facts here

so we may come back here but let me go

on to the next page because I know we’re

pressed for some time so I just wanted

to point out a couple of things here so

on the application rates I just wanted

to highlight that the application rate

for auto loans in October bullet point 3

was

11.8% below the rates of October 2023

and October of

2022 trending downward on the rejection

R side very quickly bullet point number

two the now mind you we we talk about

this before carryover credit card debt

from month to month is $1.2 trillion

dollar the average credit card uh

interest rate is like 22% now so here we

go the average rejection rate for credit

card applications new cards during 2024

increased by 05% point to to over 20% so

one out of every five is now getting

rejected next one the average rejection

rate for mortgage applications increased

by 8.6 percentage points to 20.7 so

again one out of every five mortgage

applications are going byby and I think

a lot of that has to do with our

mortgage rates being at 7% again 30-year

fit yeah and the fact that you’ve got

the other side of the coin which is you

don’t have the supply of houses so the

prices aren’t coming down to offset

those higher interest rates that’s

usually what happens is you know when we

see rates like this I mean you end up

with a ton of or housing prices go down

dramatically and it’s just like the

worst combination of the two I think

part of it is we’ve just plowed in

another 10 million people into the

country but it’s just we’re not building

houses at the rate we need to we we

can’t and the last point to that Jeff

very quickly

is I think this is twofold I think

people with poor credit are like hey

let’s go buy a house because we can

always refinance when rates come down

and the banks are like they know this we

just want people with a certain credit

uh rating and and a certain amount of

income to make sure that they’re

protected if they’re holding the paper

so I think the the last two points here

are very important we talked about this

now we have the facts about Banks and

credit card company uh uh denying credit

limit increases here it is 38 point just

figure 40% two out of every five feel

out of every 10 people that need or

request a credit line increase

denied so at some point we talk about

this the consumer will stop spending

because there will be no more credit

available for them well they can’t get a

new credit card and they can’t get a

credit line increase where’s the money

going to come from the spend on the

other side of the coin is the massive

explosion of buy now pay later things

like a firm and stuff like that yeah and

okay for people it’s convenient I’ve

used it before when I didn’t want to put

it on a credit card I’d rather have it

there it’s way the hell less of an

interest rate and all that but that’s

going to run out too and you don’t pay

on one of those you’re done you’re not

going to get any more credit from them

so I think I’m hearing buy now pay later

with groceries which is just insane

because it’s like you’re never going to

get you’re going to pay $30 for that

head of lettuce over five years yeah

that’s the thing it’s okay you’re going

to run out of options and I get it I

understand you got to feed your family

and it was funny I read when JD Vance

became vice presidential candidate I I

was like I gotta know who this guy is

and so I read hillbilly elogy and he he

makes it very clear in there where he’s

like these payday loans stuff and all

that he’s for some people that’s their

only option and I think for more people

that’s becoming their only option

because they’re getting stretched beyond

belief and I I don’t know when the when

I don’t know when the merry gr around

ends here but eventually it’s going to

end and there’s just nothing that is

going to happen and and and I don’t

think there’s anything the government

can do to fix that Beyond okay we got

we’ve got to get something under control

at this point because if people aren’t

gonna have it you just left the screen

whatever happened if we start to see any

kind of decrease in employment we’re

going to be up a creek pretty fast

so yeah I hear you all right what do you

got I thought that it would be fun since

we are going into the week of

Thanksgiving to have a little bit of

Thanksgiving trivia for us this week so

give me just a second to get this up

hereall you mean when we tried to make

peace with the Indians yes there we go

indigenous people’s Day is coming up

here all right can you see my screen I

can goad all right let me scooch up here

a little bit because I can’t see my

screen at this point so let me just pull

this down to where I can actually get to

it okay first and foremost on average

how many questions does Butterball

turkey talk oh I heard this I it’s

during the holiday season I know it’s

over a million I can’t remember what the

I did hear this once before not quite

that much 100,000 was over a million now

100,000 calls during their normal season

oh all right all right according to

Lending Tree this was shocking to me how

many guests on average did Thanksgiving

host expect to serve in

2023 you know what my gut is telling me

over 10 I’m gonna go with seven oh

actually you still should have stuck

with your first answer 11 I don’t have

11 people my immediate family and I

don’t have 11 people that I like enough

to actually make a Thanksgiving dinner

for so it it’s amazing and shocking to

me growing up at a small family is a

good thing all right 1995 this popular

Thanksgiving vegetable was the first to

be grown in

space I’ll take a

guess oh oh oh I’m thinking Thanksgiving

vet what is there a Thanksgiving

vegetable yeah I didn’t even wait am I

maybe I’m losing in my mind here a be

the potato now this tells you something

because I never had grown potatoes until

this last year in Texas and I thought

there’s no chance in hell I could grow a

potato in Texas I’ve discovered that

potatoes are just a gigantic weed that

no matter where I I think you could take

them out into the middle of the desert

in Arizona and put some potatoes in the

ground and the damn things would grow

it’s here’s the crazy thing I’m a spud

guy I love baked potatoes I didn’t know

that they were considered a vegetable I

I didn’t either but

apparent all right all right in 2023

which state raised the most turkeys

obviously the gut is telling you either

Texas or California so it’s probably not

so I’ll probably have to go with another

Midwestern State I’ll say

Georgia how about Minnesota

wow okay and they got but turkey is a

governor too but just saying all right

last one how many were featured in the

2023 masy Thanksgiving Day Parade and

this was I’ll say 36 three dozen I have

no idea 25 it seems like there’s a

crapload more of them but it’s only 25

and that’s about the average and that

was a it was a low wind year and when

they have high wind years they typically

have even less so it that was a surprise

to me so what I wanted to cover today

really quick oh yeah business yeah so

little business stuff I’ve gotten a lot

of questions from clients and I I have

clients that are on both sides of the

political fence and some in the middle I

will say I’m in the middle in a lot of

instances very conservative when it

comes to the the the fiscal side of

things and in the middle on everything

else I’d rather just the government not

do anything and get out of my life but

of course I had clients calling me

saying oh my God the world was over

president Trump was reelected or oh my

God yes wonderful thing the president’s

reelected oh the market shot up wait a

minute what the heck the Market’s gone

down here’s the reality here’s the last

30 days on the S&P 500 yes we’ve seen a

lot of movement prior to the election in

fact the election day up to election day

it was a big massive turkey that was

dropping and then the election boom

everything shot up then boom

everything’s been down but let’s look at

the reality here here was yesterday here

was a month ago we’re actually still up

so calm down everything is fine you

can’t have the market shoot up 10% in a

week without it pulling back a little

bit and we’re still an earning season

but let’s look at reality here is the

last year so we’re almost to the end of

the year the right side is higher than

the left side which has been a really

good year but what I would say is it’s

been a very frustrating and weird year

because we’ve had a lot of bumps coming

into this last few months not the

straight up steady move that we’re used

to it was a lot of bumpy bumpy and so

when you look at it in short term it can

really be looking like a swoon but in

the reality is we’re still moving upward

um and climbing the wall of worry why

are we climbing the wall of worry the

media tells you it’s because of J Powell

and why he felt like he had to come out

this last week and say I don’t know what

interest rates are going to be like can

you just shut up for 10 minutes and be

data dependent like you tell us you are

you don’t need to come out and say all

this crap right now and his buddy Mr

Putin who feels like he has to

constantly just push push push the

reality is you’re not going to launch

nuclear weapons you jackass or you’re

going to be a big smoking hole in the

world so stop saying you’re going to

launch nuclear weapons I don’t know I

it’s just it’s frustrating to me because

the media makes this the that the easy

answer and it’s not the easy answer what

I think the most likely answer is

exactly circling around to the point

that Ron talked about in his piece of

those rejection rates I think are

starting to affect the some of companies

and I’ve we’ve talked about this before

I’ve had this kind of theory going on of

the what I call the trade down trade

which is people that are solidly middle

class that are stretched massively and

we’re now seeing that in the numbers

that Ron brought up we’re now seeing

this happen as far as Target and I think

target is the canaran the coal mine here

they had an earnings per share Miss of

negative

9.5% and they had a Miss on Revenue as

well but you know what I get it and I

agree with everything that you said why

is Walmart at all-time high isn’t it by

the same consumer it’s I think and I

think the numbers are saying it there’s

that trade down trade from Target to

Walmart those value places that’s a tra

down trade Walmart yeah Walmart TJ Maxx

and the inside of TJ Maxx which I follow

very carefully inside of TJ Maxx

HomeGoods with was their absolute

amazing piece and that is hey I can get

nice Goods I just get them for a little

less as a result of that so I think

personally that is my belief of why you

while we’re sitting here during earning

season there are some canaries like this

that are more of that kind of upper end

consumer that are showing hey I’ve got

to find Value someplace and the Target

CEO said that flat out is we’re seeing

a lot of we’re just not seeing the

traffic in our stores now part of that

is I think they’ve also gone off the

deep end with what they offer in their

stores they just don’t offer the Stu my

wife used to go and buy a lot of

clothing at Target and she’s to the

point now don’t like anything they have

so not only that too but without going

there there’s also some political oh

that in a lot of companies you see it

and the problem is when you go down that

Target absolutely let shove stuff down

your throat when it comes to Stu let’s

put it right out front and then they get

caught and the problem is once you make

people mad they’re just not going to

come back and we saw this also with

Tractor Supply very kind of

Midwestern stuff like that they went off

on this kind of weird Dei track and then

they got caught and it’s like they lose

track of Their audience or they lose

track of their consumer and at the end

of the day just treat everybody sell

good product at good price you’ll do

well get out of the get out of all the

that other that other yeah I I don’t

need I don’t need politics in my schools

I don’t need politics I don’t need I

don’t need a corporation to be that one

that’s telling me what I should think

you know what let me think what I want

to think and just freaking make good

products guess what I could take my

money elsewhere that and that’s what’s

happening and it it’s funny because like

Tractor Supply they’re stock has still

not recovered and they come they went

completely the opposite oh we’re going

to stop all this stuff you’ve already

pissed everybody off at this point so

they’re just not going to come back or

they’re not going to come some people

there’s no other option because that is

the supply that they get place that’s

the local place but other than that man

for the for that person that’s like in

the town where I live we’re not a yes

there are rural areas where people have

farms and stuff like that Tractor Supply

for us was okay that’s that kind of cool

place that you go to if you want to buy

some of that type of stuff but I don’t

have to go there is most of the stuff

that they have I can get at my local

hardware store I think part of this is I

think a response to some of the Dei

stuff and all that but I think more than

that is the consumer is stretched really

bad you know what we’ll get an idea

first couple weeks of January with some

retail numbers and we should see how

some of this stuff came either came to

fruition or was stayed stagnant or

people just are going to bet the farm

again and hope that it’s a new

Administration next year we shall spr on

whatever’s left of the credit cards and

make sure the kids have a great

Christmas or whatever but who knows all

I can say is I think it’s going to be a

crazy little bit of what’s left of this

year and certainly we’ll see what Q4

looks like going into earnings in in

January and February yep all right folks

thank you for joining us once again we

put these shows together for you um not

here to to talk to you about politics

and all that but the whole idea is it it

isn’t about politics it’s about reality

and I think we shared some of the

reality numbers with you today so I hope

you enjoyed that please feel free to

comment on it love to hear it um make

sure you subscribe to the channel

because we are going to have some big

events coming up going into the end of

the year so thanks a lot and we will see

you guys back here the very next time