Hello folks. Welcome to another episode of The  Sense of Things with Jeff and Ron. On today’s  

show, Ron’s going to give us what happened in  history first. Then he’s going to go over some  

things about migration within the United States of  states that have gained, states that have lost. I  

think you’ll be interested in that. He’s also got  some really good stuff on innovation and gains in  

the stock market when we’ve had innovation, which  I think hopefully we’ll talk a little bit about  

what I think is one of the most interesting things  in future here. And then he’s got some charts on  

time in the market versus timing the market and  what’s been going on with the recovery we’ve seen  

that both of us agree happened way faster than  we could have planned on. And I wish I even had  

even more cash to have put into the market this  month because it’s really taken off. I’m going   to cover some economic stuff from this week and  I think there’s some really interesting trends  

going on in the economics. So stay tuned. We’ll  be right back on in just a second. Hey everybody.

Welcome to the show, Ron. How are you, my friend?  Good. Spring is in full bloom here. I don’t know   what it is by you. Um heading back to Philly  next week, which you and I will meet up. And  

the weather is mediocre back there right now.  Kind of. I know. I looked hoping it’s going   to tick up by the time we get out there.  Yeah, it’s a middle e at this point. So,  

we shall see. I hear you. All right. Here we  go. So this week in history, I got to tell you,  

we got a lot of stuff here. We’re going  to buzz through them. So here we go. So   George Washington signs his first veto. Nice.  Declining a bill that would have provided more  

seats to the northern states. 1866, Ulissiz S.  Grant arrested for speeding in his horse buggy  

newspaper words. Now my curious is what kind of a  speed gun did they have to that calibrated that?  

Was he just weaving in and out of traffic?  He was a drinker, so you God only knows. But  

at least he didn’t get a DUI. No. Oh my god.  1866, ASPCA is founded. So I thought that was  

interesting. Wow. That’s a long time. All  the way back then. I know. I know. 1881,  

Billy the Kid convicted of murder and then broke  out of jail. General Lee surrendered. I think  

that’s supposed to be 1865. That’s 1865. Yeah,  my bad. 1896. I have some pictures of this at the  

very end. The first modern Olympic Games begins  in Greece. I’m talking about this. We got it in  

the US next year. It was no this, you know, next  year. Next year. Next year. This year is all the  

soccer stuff. Correct. Yep. All right. 1954. Bill  Haley and his comics record rock around the clock.  

What famous TV show used that as the opening  to their show? Happy Days. Very good. 1959,  

NASA introduces first group of astronauts.  Perfect timing with everything that’s going   on with the Aremis. Yep. Rewatched the right stuff  this weekend, actually. I love it. You could pick  

that up at any point in that movie. Absolutely.  1961, Yuri Gagarin from USSR is the first human in  

space. And then they killed him a few years later,  bringing him back from space. 1970, Sam Shepard,  

the inspiration for the fugitive, dies of liver  failure. I did not know that was based on a true  

story. No, I didn’t either. Interesting. Yeah,  I actually read the article on this. I’m like,  

wow. And the modern ver and the modern version  of the movie awesome with Tommy Lee Jones. Yep.  

Then Harrison Ford, one of Harrison Ford’s better  movies. I’m not the biggest Harrison Ford fan, but   I was good in that. But the thing, this is during  the 60s, they had the Fugitive with David Jansen.  

He played the Fugitive. Yeah. 1970, Paul McCartney  announces break from the Beatles. 1970, again,  

this was the same week Apollo 13 launches towards  the moon. We all know what happened. Four, Hank  

Aaron breaks Babe Roose home run record. I always  love baseball trivia. Do you know what pitcher  

first? Do you know against what team? against what  pitcher? I have no clue. It was against the Los  

Angeles Dodgers and it was against left-hander Al  Downing. I that I that wouldn’t even be floating  

around in the useless information in my head.  Sorry, I am full of useless. I I can’t even use   my trick of going Yeah. drinking a couple beers  and all of a sudden all the useless trivia pops  

out. Wouldn’t have popped out at all. Baseball  and movies. I’m full of useless information.  

All right, here’s more baseball for you. Frank  Robinson becomes the first black manager of the   Cleveland Indians. Oh, he was actually a player  manager. Yeah, there’s not a lot of those out  

there, but yeah. And then another use piece of  useless trivia. Who was the last player manager?  

I have no idea. Baseball is not my Huh. Rose.  Yeah, we know how that ended. 76 Howard Hughes  

dies. Yep. 1976. One of my favorite alltime  movies, All the President’s Men. I’m not a big  

Robert Redford fan, but that was actually a really  good movie for him. Fantastic. And actually, I’ve   been told many times of people, you got to read  the book. I’m like, the movie was damn good. No,  

no, you got to read the book. Yeah. Well, 197 also  780 pages. So, yeah, I don’t think so. Just think  

about what they had to delete from there. I mean,  with all the information. Yeah. Another baseball.  

Ken Forch throws a no hitter matching a feat done  by his brother Bob Forch who actually had the  

uh the better career 80 post-it note is invented  and sold to the market. Now here’s a t here’s a  

trivia point for you. What is another 3M product  that was created by the mother of a famous Yes.  

White out rockstar white out. Yeah, I think it was  Peter Torque, was it? No. No, it’s Peter Nz. Peter  

Nesb. Yes. His mom. Yeah. Yep. I knew that. I knew  that one a long time. Full of useless information.  

Come on. That’s exactly right. 1989, Jim Abbott  makes debut and was the first without a right  

hand. And actually, people don’t realize this.  He was actually a pretty good hitter in college,   even though he didn’t have a right hand, but and  actually ended up throwing a no hitter later on. I  

think it was with the Yankees. All right. You want  to impress me, do it with both hand or no hands.  

Hey, somebody will do that with their foot one  day. They will. 1994, Kurt Cobain dies by suicide.  

Another tragic day. Idiot. And he was 27. Also, if  you know what what he would have done had he lived  

much longer. That’s for sure. I I don’t know. You  could go back. Jimmyi Hendricks, Janice Joplin. I  

I I just Some of the biggest geniuses ever have  just been idiots and killed themselves or just  

self-sabotage. Yeah. Jim Morrison, another one.  I I’m a big time Doors fan. So, very frustrating.  

Yeah. Like I said, it’s just frustrating when I’m  like, you would have had such an amazing and then   you have the guys from the the Rolling Stones  and I think that every day they wake up and go,  

“Good God, I’m still here.” And it’s funny because  the one guy in the band that really was not a  

partyier, he was not a a womanizer was Charlie  Watts and he was the first one to die. Yeah,  

exactly. Actually, Brian Jones was if you want to  look back at it and he was a genius in many ways,  

but of all the years, Charlie Watts was the first  one to pass. Like I said, I think the other two  

original founders, I think every day wake up,  look in the mirror, and go, “Holy [ __ ] I’m   still here.” Keith Richards has been off alcohol  for years and I think he said it was tougher for  

him I think to quit smoking than it was drinking.  Yeah. How he hasn’t turned to dust yet. I have no  

idea. I really honestly I think there’s been I I  think at one point in his life he had a full blood  

transfusion if I remember correctly because he had  so much garbage system. Yeah, exactly. All right,  

here we go. Let’s get into some meat here. Oh,  so here are some pictures Olympics. I actually  

had these and then when it was the first week  I’m like I had to go into the my archives and   get these because I thought it was amazing. Look  at how they lined up for a sprint race and look  

how they were dressed for a marathon. Remember  they didn’t even have sneakers back then. No,   they had basically these little leather they  effectively I think they had the spike traction  

shoes. I don’t think they even had that. Yeah,  they ran effectively barefoot. These were some   tough dudes. Yeah. All right. So, here we go.  So, migration United States. So, I don’t think  

anything here surprises me. I know in the last six  or seven years, Phoenix metro, where I am right  

now, has had population growth over the other  top six cities. New York, LA, Chicago, Houston,  

then Phoenix, and Philadelphia all had negative  population growth. But if you were looking at  

the overall state, New York, the what were the  two biggest tax states? New York and California.  

Look at Massachusetts. I didn’t realize that. Holy  crap. Yeah. Big tax state. But here, look at this.  

People moving to Delaware. 54%. That is amazing.  Cuz I’m like, it’s a really small state. Yeah.  

When you look, cuz we’re be up in Philly and we’re  going to try and do a little run through to check  

Delaware off of our list of states that we’ve been  in. And I’m like, there’s nothing to do there.  

Well, Wilmington’s the biggest city and it’s kind  of eh but yeah, look, Texas with a nice bump. Uh  

Tennessee, look, people moving to Tennessee for  years. I thought that was interesting. But yeah,  

notice there’s a lot of people from Texas that  moved during the pandemic and later moved to  

Tennessee because they it was like, okay, our  prices in real estate went up just ridiculous  

and it wasn’t happening in Tennessee. saw a ton  of people move there. Yeah. But here’s the crazy  

thing. Northern states, people are moving out  of there. Look at the growth here. Idaho, 63%,  

but South Carolina had the biggest was 79.7%.  Wow, that’s amazing. And and you hear so much  

about Florida and that’s really not Yeah. But it’s  pretty saturated where you can live, too. But the  

one thing I thought was interesting, I know it’s  an expensive state to live in. Hawaii had negative  

population growth. I thought that was interesting.  But you got to remember too, you wiped out a  

pretty big city in Maui. So, a lot of people just  went, “Okay, I’m this is it. I’m out of here.” At  

that point, yeah, it’s not a ton, but I think it’s  just massively and it’s interesting. Even Alaska  

lost a ton of people. Yeah, I hear you. I mean,  and you can only live in a few parts of Alaska,  

too. Yeah. But there’s people that like, “Oh,  this is the greatest thing. I love living out   in the country or whatever.” I’m like, “Not during  the winter.” Yeah. When it’s cold, like 12 months  

of the year, not seven months of the year,  it’s winter. Yeah. Exactly. All right. Then,  

I thought this was interesting. If we look all the  way out to the late 20 19 when you look at select  

innovations that came out what happened in the  market. Now this was interesting. I didn’t think  

the microwave came out until the 70s. I thought  that stood out to me. Now jet flight came out in  

1939 but it really didn’t become prevalent until  the 50s and 60s. Uh nuclear power we know in 42.  

But I look look at this like with the space age  it basically if you remember the 70s were just the  

malaise following the moon. It was like the moon  landing and like all right we’re done. Also had  

the oil embargo and things like that. Yeah. Yeah.  High inflation. It was just everything bad for a  

decade. Yep. And then you take a look and then  the 80s, right? And then tech took over. You had  

technology had Microsoft the web, right? Or even  know that was really the mid 90s. and Al Gore. So,  

yeah. Yeah. Thank Al Gore. Yeah. Yeah. He just  said yes. You had Google in 98. I don’t know why  

they put the Prius here, but I guess that was  the first mainstream EV. Wikipedia, I thought   was I still use it today, but Facebook was 2004.  That’s what it was out there. Really didn’t become  

mainstream until a few years later. Yeah. I mean,  you had a couple of the others that were really on  

top. Yeah. iPhone. I my opinion was I think the  catalyst for a lot of stuff and then obviously  

Uber and I don’t know why Uber in 2009 is a big  innovation thing but the Tesla certainly in 2012  

I remember when that thing was like selling for 20  to 30 bucks a share pre-split and it was just like  

yeah they’re a nice little company they’re grow  you had so many attempts at alternatives to the  

big three and they’ve all failed miserably  until Tesla came along and Elon just went,  

“You know what? I’m just barreling forward full  boore.” It’s interesting that because I’ve got a  

client that’s a huge Tesla guy and he’s scrambling  to buy the the model he likes, which I think it’s  

the Model X or whatever. He’s he got the plaid  because he was like, “I like that style. I don’t  

like the one, but they’re basically going down to  one ugly model and the ugly truck and that’s it.”  

But people still buy them. Really isn’t involved  with Tesla. He’s much more involved with SpaceX  

robotics and the AI company. Yeah. You know, it’s  Hey, I did it. Time to move on. Yeah, we’re still  

we’re still going. We’re making money. I’m off  doing things that I do best, which is But it is  

funding everything for him. Yeah. Yep. Hear. All  right. So, this chart, if you have never seen this  

before, you you should have. And if you’ve already  seen it, it bears repeating. So this is about not  

timing the market but timing the market. And if  you take a look really look, we’ll see how this   pans out this year, but last year people panic.  People sold out. And then one day the market was  

up 10%. I believe it was April 8th last year. And  if you missed that one day and then decided to get  

back in, you didn’t lose, but you missed out big.  And it’s one of those things. And now right now,  

I look, this war is far from over. I don’t believe  it’s, but as long as the bombs are under control  

and everything else and we’re not going to blow  them back to the stone age, the market may hold.  

We’ll see. I don’t know. I don’t know if we’re  going to reach new highs in the next few months. I   just think we’re going to be walking on eggshells  here. But again, you don’t want to pull your money  

out of the market. You want to add on the way down  to high quality positions. Your thoughts? Totally  

agree. I think the end of combat type operation  where we’re bombing the living crap out of them.  

I I think we’re pretty well done with that at this  point. You can see the administration’s kind of  

shifting gears into a new phase which is blockade  their ports. They basically have no money coming  

in. And then now with with the Treasury Department  working on the sanctions and everything else,  

pretty severe sanctions, they’re just going to  choke them out at this point. They beat him up   pretty bad. Now they’re just going to choke him  out. So yeah, but the straight of Harmuz is not  

open. It is open. It’s just people are scared  because they think that these idiots are going  

to fire off a rocket or something. No, it’s not.  It’s not really free and open. It is open. It is  

free and open. It’s the insurance companies that  are blocking it because they’ve been running ships   through there. Some of the Yeah, I the claim that  there was all these mines and all that. There is  

none. The US Navy ran back and ran back and forth  through there and found no mines. So, it’s mainly  

just the companies not insuring these ships. And  yeah, there’s always that chance that some idiot  

with a an idiot with a rocket fires one off from  shore into it, but they have no navy. They have  

no air force. They really don’t have a leg to  stand on at this point is my take on it. So,  

I think we’re closer to the end. They then they  should have done a death kneel by now and they   have not. That’s because they’re idiots. Okay. But  yeah, they’re they’re they’re literally I look at  

it at this point, they are literally nuts at this  point and they don’t care about their people.  

They are not going to give in. I I guarantee you  they’re not going to give in, but they’re going to   have no choice at some point. So, let me uh let me  quickly whip through the stuff that I have here.  

Let me get this thing up on the screen. So, just  looking at some of the economic data this week,  

I there’s some things I have concerns about that  I think we need to keep an eye on. I’ve been  

keeping track of home sales and things like that  because it’s such a big driver of our economy. So,  

looking at existing home sales this week,  this came out on Monday. So, this is all   finally current data. We’re through the pandemic  lag stuff came in this week. Prior prior month,  

we were at 4.09 09 million of existing home sales.  We dropped to 3.98. So, it’s not a dramatic drop,  

but it’s a trend that you don’t really want  to be on. We’re down 3.6% month over month,  

1% year-over-year. When you look at, let me get  this out of the way. Housing market index. This  

is another one that kind of is coming in on  the bottom end, actually below consensus,  

below the previous month. So, this is something  I want to keep an eye on because like I said,   it’s such a driver across the board because  people getting into new homes or start to go  

to Home Depot and blah blah blah. It’s just a lot  of things that happen and if that’s slowing down,  

that really hurts the economy overall. Now, that’s  the bad, the good PPI. March, we were full on in  

the war. PPI came out this week month over month  0.5% which the market kind of went what how could  

that happen consensus was 1.2 too. Once again,  even with food and energy and stuff like that,  

it’s still it’s really well better than what had  been anticipated by the hand ringing economists  

that are out there. So, we’ll see what happens  this month in April. This is the funny one,   and I love the consensus outlook here.  Manufacturing seems sluggish with the index  

barely in contraction territory at minus 2.0  0 for April down from an already unimpressive  

minus.2 in March. Yeah, it came in at 11 Empire  State. So, oops. Got to love economists. Yeah,  

boy. Really caught that one right on the money  there, bud. Import export prices once again. So,   wait, hold on. So, why didn’t they change the Oh,  I guess the consensus was before the actual. Yeah,  

consensus is always there before. Then they give  the actual which makes them look like complete   idiots. Import export prices once again. Okay,  what’s the theory? Everything is hard. The  

the economists are hand ringing because of the  conflict. Consensus was 2.1% increase in import  

prices. It was point8 1.7% in export prices, 1.6,  which is good because we want export prices to be  

up a little bit, but import prices have been down  pretty significantly here. Uh, last but not least,  

and this is the probably the most concerning  thing for me when you see the next slide,  

Energy Information Administration put out crude  oil inventories week overw week. Prior week we  

were 3.1 million barrels. This week we’re million  barrels. I don’t know how you can have a negative.  

We’re down basically almost a million barrels  from the previous week effectively is what it  

means. So why is that concerning to me? this  because as of the beginning of the blockade,  

which of course the blockades up here, this is  the line of ships coming to the Gulf of America  

from every place because with this shut down  or this not really transiting traffic, these  

guys are going, we need oil from someplace and  it’s coming from us. The challenge we have, and  

I think the administration realizes this, they’re  having a call with the big oil companies to say,  

“Hey guys, you’ve got to increase production at  this point so that we can handle this need for  

oil coming in.” And I think we’re going to have to  even if prices come down, they’re going to have to  

stay high on production to keep basically because  I’m guessing the vast majority of these tankers  

are probably heading back this direction to Asia  at that point and Europe. Yeah. and Europe. Yeah,  

that’s all these ones over here that emptied  out in Europe are coming over here, which I   would assume these probably came to America  anyhow at that point because it’s certainly  

the shorter distance to come. So, that’s that’s  my take on it for the week. So, like I said,  

I think some things to to be cognizant of. Real  estate worries me and I think oil supplies. We are  

a major supplier. We do 25% of the world’s oil.  By the end of this, I think we might end up doing  

more because I think a lot of people are going  to go, “Hey, it’s just it’s not worth it.” Yes,   it costs a little bit more to transit that  distance, but you don’t have the risk premium on  

if you don’t. Yeah. Like I said, look, I didn’t  hear any deadline or line in the sand and for  

anything to be done, but I think Congress is going  to get involved here. I don’t know to what extent  

because they need more budget and appropriations.  I don’t know how that’s going to go. Yeah. Yeah,  

it’s we’ve got to we’ve got to fund our operations  and stuff like that. So, yeah, that may be the  

fight over appropriations and all that, but once  again, there’s vehicles to to get through that  

point at this point. Great. Look forward to  seeing y’all. We’re Ron and I’ll probably do   a quick little short video next week. We’re  going to take the week off from doing a show,  

but we may do a a quick surprise video while we’re  in Philly together. So, make sure you keep an eye  

out. Make sure you subscribe to the channel and  we will see you guys back here the very next time.