hello sense of things it’s Jeff and Ron

here once again for another week of

what’s going on in the world what’s

going on in the markets and we’re

running up on Christmas uh Hanukkah

whatever holidays festiv us all that

this week we’re going to cover a little

bit about some weird Christmas facts

we’ve got some things coming up in h the

market this week probably the biggest

one and most consequential is the fed’s

right decision uh that’s been affecting

the markets for the last couple weeks

and then Ron’s got some really good

stuff talking about some Google searches

top Google searches and a few other

subjects like that so stay tuned we’ll

be right back on in a

[Music]

[Applause]

[Music]

second hello everyone welcome to the

show Ron how you doing my friend good

morning should we start reciting elf

lines or no

yeah I think so now I was never a big

Watcher of the show so I I’m not gonna

be helpful to you there it was one of my

son’s favorites I loved it and I tell

you I watched it again over um

Thanksgiving weekend from end to end

and still still funny yeah uh my

favorite of all time the probably the

show that most people don’t know is

dinosaurs probably one of the funniest

shows I’ve ever laugh it just makes me

laugh watching it today

so it it reminded me of the old Sid

Marty Croft stuff when we were growing

up so

gotcha Okay cool so uh why don’t I kick

it off today talk about Christmas facts

so that people have some useless

information to take with them when

they’re visiting family who doesn’t want

useless information I know everybody

needs a little useless information here

and there all right let’s get this pop

puppy up here okay so top five weird

Christmas facts did you know Christmas

wasn’t always on December 25th did not

know that although Christmas celebrates

the birth of Christ it doesn’t actually

mention December 25th anywhere in the

Bible so wait he wasn’t born on that

date nope in fact some historians Think

Jesus was born in the spring and not

winter at all Christmas I’ve been lied

to my whole life I know Christmas not

until the

300s multi-billion dollar industry

they’re not changing it now nope not

gonna change I think the biggest thing

for my understanding is when around the

counil of NAA they decided on using

December 25th because it was a it was a

big pagan holiday and so it was easier

to sell it for for replacing a big Pagan

I did hear that yep so you won’t hear

Council of NAA mention you should have

you should have left this fact for

last all right evergreens are an ancient

tradition not just a Christmas thing so

iconic Christmas tree has a lot of roots

forgive the pun ancient Egyptians used

to Mark winter solstice by decorating

their homes with green Palms while the

Romans celebrated

saturnalia with Evergreen bowels these

green plants signified the BL would

return to New Life the first Christmas

trees we know them today started in

Germany in the 16th

century okay now on that same subject

you can thank Prince Albert Prince

Albert in the can Christmas tree because

he was from Germany he had German roots

and in 1848 he decided to put a

Christmas tree they started making it

fashionable by putting it in Buckingham

Palace we didn’t have them for very long

all right and I just actually saw this

on the Discovery Channel recently so

this is actually pretty interesting St

Nick was more generous than Jolly the

original Santa Claus was actually St

Nicholas a Christian Bishop in the

fourth Century in Turkey he hadn’t wore

he didn’t wear red and he didn’t give

all but he did give all of his

inheritance to the poor and needy and in

Dutch his name is C Claus which later

morphed into Santa Claus and I also

heard an interesting uh not Nostalgia

bit of nostalgia that Coca

Cola is

actually more influential and

responsible for what we know of Santa

Claus looking today based on a lot of

their advertising because they were they

adverti so much in the 20s and 30s and

40s that a lot of people grasped on to

how they imagined Santa CL to look funny

you should say that he wasn’t always

Jolly the Jolly man in red impress you

didn’t team me up for that one older

depictions of Santa from the early

depicted him more sternly um he wasn’t

standardized as a look and it wasn’t

until Haden

sunbloom uh created the the Coca colola

ads that’s what that’s our now version

of what we think of a Santa Claus wasn’t

until

1931 it’s interesting my wife and I used

to have and I think we finally ended up

giving him away but there was a whole

series of Christmas ornaments that we

collected over a period of 10 years when

we were first married and they were all

based on Haden Sun blooms illustrations

of Coca colola the Coca-Cola Santa did

you get Hest trucks when you were a kid

I never got Hest truck I didn’t even

know what a Hest truck was really until

my till my grand or my mother-in-law she

always had one and I was like what where

did you get that Collectibles I they

weren real big in the midwest or the

west but they were huge in the Northeast

because H’s headquarters was in North

Jersey sure yeah I’d never even heard of

hes before my mother-in-law and she had

just one of these that she always had

like up on her shelf or something like

that but yeah I’d never even heard of it

before then now I even see commercials

for them they it seems like they have a

a commercial every year for the H Truck

oh

yeah Collectibles yeah they sell more

collectible trucks than sell actual gas

I think they actually just sold the

company I think last year oh really okay

yeah it was the exit strategy for the

family I think yep yep and then somebody

will just buy up the the H trucks and

and sell those every year for Christmas

so why not Yep this week probably the

most consequential thing that we’ve got

going on this week is the last real

economic news for the year which is

going to be what the FED does with

interest rates the market is

guesstimating now it was funny last week

um when we didn’t do a show last week

markets were going all over crazy

because oh my God we’re getting interest

rate we’re getting CPI and PPI and it’s

higher than normal so maybe the fed’s

not going to do this I don’t think

there’s a chance on the planet that the

fed’s not going to do this because

they’re going to look really bad and

really like they’re trying to sway the

election by doing all the cuts and not

doing one here

my estimate is they’re going to cut by a

quarter point at this point what’s your

thoughts look I’m going to go back to

what I said a year ago I figured there’d

be at least one to two no more than

three this year despite the fact that in

November December last year they were

looking at up to six or seven this year

which if that was the case we would have

been in a recession if we would had that

many the answer is I think based on the

last CPI and CPE print I think the

future

the Futures on the Fed rate going down a

quarter of a point was above 80% so the

answer is I think that if they don’t cut

a quarter of a percent I think that

would be the surprise not the cut itself

yeah yeah I just I see him doing it at

this point it sounds going to live

through uh the transition of presidency

at this point and I don’t know I just

think they say they’re data dependent

the data is not really going up much and

it’s not really going down much I just

estimate that they’ll do that I don’t

know what they’re going to do next year

I I I they Haven it might be on pause

for a few months to see how things shake

out with the new Administration yep yeah

I think that’s the big unless data

unless data is just tipping them one way

or the other yeah yeah and and I yeah I

think it’s probably going to be into the

spring summer you know late spring

summer before they get back to doing

anything I I just don’t really imagine

them doing any up at this point but uh

it’s just when are they going to do the

rest of the Downs at this point and is

yeah but yeah but it’s interesting you

say that and we could move on you’re

saying when are they going to do the

rest of the down rates yeah in order for

that to happen that means you have to

have a terminal bottom sure what is that

three two and 3/ quter three and a half

percent where what at four and a half

now so what is a terminal rate I always

hate when people say oh no it’ll be and

a half you you don’t know to the upside

they thought it wouldn’t be more than

475 or five and we went up as high as

five or whatever the hell it was so I

think the terminal rate is probably

somewhere between three three and a half

which is one and a half one to one and a

half from here who knows but that sounds

about right yeah I think so too and it’s

within range of their 2% where they want

the inflation to be at and everything

else and it’s working its way back there

but it’s been really persistent in this

like 2.7 range and I don’t really see it

going down anytime soon it’s like losing

that last 10 or 15 pounds of fat on you

you just can’t get it off and it’s very

difficult to do that so I hear you I

hear you so I have some fun stuff I saw

this it was pretty interesting just

because it is useless information but

it’s fun information the top Google

searches in 2024 it’s interesting on the

left just as far as general

searches four out of the five is uh

soccer related so yeah so I don’t know

how much of that was actually done in

the US but internationally it was

obviously PR I would assume yeah and

then on the far right side I would the

US election number one which that’s a

given did you do a lot of the searches

for number five because for me that was

a big story in the world and I just had

a tough time following it I don’t know

about you all I know is it was 10

whatever it was it was 10

I I I don’t know but I thought number

two was interesting excessive

heat yeah you were you guys were hotter

than blazes this summer it wasn’t

actually too I think the temperature was

okay the humidity ticked up a little bit

but not too bad but I know in parts of

the US go like a 100 days or something

of 100 plus degrees that’s normal yeah

but Jeff that’s normal but when you’re

in high single and low double digit

humidity I’d much rather be in 110 here

in the afternoon with low humidity then

by you in 85 90 degrees with 100%

humidity you could keep that try 100

degrees with 100% humidity on top the

answer is no yeah but you can’t even go

outside you could at least go outside

here at5 110 you may not stand outside

and worship the Sun but you could at

least function sure and I think it was

up on the the East Coast too it was a

little bit of a warmer summer and they

get the humidity there too I get a lot

of humidity and when they’re bitching

about 85 and 100% humidity I’m like dude

that’s

January so I mean I think today we’re

hitting like 79 or so here almost

Christmas so one of the top Searchers on

the prior page was Liam Payne so of the

top Searchers of people who passed Liam

Payne was number one I don’t know much

about I don’t even know who that is yeah

Shannon already I know she had cancer

quite a bit we all know who OJ was Toby

Keith was surprising but I don’t think

he was in good health for a while no

he’d been he’d had cancer for 18 months

to two years and now you heard Randy

Moss has cancer didn’t say the extent of

that but he had to take a leave of

absence from the NFL show then of the

athletes I’m not sure who may who I

think I’ve heard the name is it caleff

or I’m not sure but that Mike Tyson Jake

Paul fight those guys are getting sued

now and I don’t blame them because

people actually put money down on that

and that was that was a fixed fight as

far as I’m concerned yeah it was awful

you know what even though I already had

Netflix subscription I still wanted my

money back for spending time watching

that crap yes yeah I just want the hours

the hour back that I spent and it was a

huge promotion for Netflix believe me

they they did well on it oh

yeah

okay cares I thought this was a fun one

because somebody told me that you could

do this in Google a while ago and you

forget it like you hear a song in your

head you don’t know the name of it you

could actually go to Google Search hit

the microphone and hum the song and it

may actually find it for you so I don’t

know about you but I have no clue what

the hell bling bang bang

born is by creepy nuts I’m afraid to

even look up and hear whatever I don’t

want to I I really seriously do not want

to go gole creepy nuts period could that

be the theme song when you watch Florida

Man videos I don’t know think so yep

that is absolutely the Florida Man song

and I’m guessing creepy nuts is probably

from Florida I’m just

saying hey it could be creepy Austin men

too who the hell knows that’s true

remember we’ve got the we already we

blew past the Harry Man festival in in

October it’s all good all right just a

couple more top searches for top Park

Central Park’s a big one no other major

like I figured there’d be another

National Park in us no but two in

Japan and then top museums um I’ve never

been to any of these obviously British

museum I swear to God the British museum

pisses me off more than any other Museum

that if obviously to go in there three

times first time it took us forever on

the subway to get around to get to it

because it’s in a weird funky area it

via Subway this last time we went we

actually got out like a mile away and

walked in second time we were there they

had a some kind of like a water leak or

something in there third time we went

there the damn thing uh they had a

strike of the people that work there so

the museum wasn’t open so I have given

up on the British museum I will never go

there again

so you know what Jeff I think the

feeling is mutual they don’t want you

back sure they just don’t want me there

is the problem so science Chic aome yep

to get to some serious stuff and we’ve

talked about this and visual capitalist

always does a good job who holds US debt

okay and we always talk about China and

Japan owning the highest amount outside

of the US and I always say that this is

interesting but the I will tell just one

thing that stood out here to me was Who

the hell’s still buying savings bonds

yeah I know this last few years they

have been up quite a bit but back in the

day when we were kids and even really

the generation or two before us people

bought savings bonds for your nephew

niece what grandchild and you said it

was always like a 20 year because it

would mature when they went to college

or out of college sure I don’t know of

anybody that is purchased the savings

bond in the last 25 17% of the

apparently 5.7 but do you know of

anybody that’s bought a savings bond

where has anybody come to you saying hey

Jeff do you think I should buy a savings

bond as a good investment for I I

haven’t had anybody do that but I’ve had

people come to me and I’ve got all these

savings bonds and I’m like why do you

have them I think what’s included in

there though are those the ibonds too

which people were buying a crap T is

that really a savings bond huh yeah is

that there’s an i version of the yeah

know I know the ibond but I didn’t know

that would savings bonds to me is the

other one where you buy it for it’s a

$100 Bond you buy it for 65 bucks and

when it matures you get the 100 that’s

not the way ibond work there was a

there’s an i version there’s a inflation

oriented version of it you’re capped out

I think the the max you can buy is

either 2,000 or 5,000 10 10 on an ibond

it’s 10,000 yeah I think those are

included in the savings bond World there

too well we’ll have to do some research

for the next show on that I’m interested

because I didn’t think that would be

considered an ibond cuz actually

somebody asked me about it other than a

limitation of 10,000 first they can’t

get it through us they have to go

directly to the website and there’s a

minimum holding period of a year on that

minimum you can’t get out of it under a

year absolutely and there there’s some

other stipulations too and there really

isn’t a market for them per se and they

basically sell them back to the

government correct at one time you could

have gotten one I think for 9% two years

yeah so I think that’s where a lot of

that came from I just people with the

oid versions of it I just can’t imagine

it’s interesting because you always hear

oh China is like the biggest holder of

our debt really not actually second

largest International holder yeah but

Japan is actually bigger than even they

are and which makes sense because we’re

so interlined on our

economies yeah and this is as of the end

of

2023 and we all know that the debt is

not 34.4 it’s approaching or at 36 I

haven’t looked at the debt Clock lately

but it’s close to that mhm all right so

we talk about the Lei the leading

indicator and I saw this on the daily

shot and I’m like hey you know what got

to give him some credit for this because

with the conference board if you go back

over

65 years never another time in history

they always had the Lei was a pretty

good indicator of a pending recession

here it is is 32 consecutive months of

negative of showings of of the lead of

the leading indicator we have’t been in

a recession it’s the peak in

2021 and if you look at the bottom chart

there the highest was probably

70677 at 25 months and we’ve already

blown past that blown past it and it

doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime

soon we were talking about this in the

pre-show as long as the unemployment

rate is as low as it is and people are

still making the minimum payments on

their credit

card the cracks can continue to show

we’re not going to see any major shock

in the economy until I think the

unemployment significantly ticks up yeah

and I think that’s the biggest part of

this is It’s befuddled me because I come

from the leading indicators crowd it’s

always been a really dang good indicator

up till this last what some odd months

this cycle has the weirdest time when it

comes to Leading indicators and I think

it’s a combination of things I think it

is people working and still being able

to finance their world through credit

and I think the other side is there was

so much manipulation of the economy

through what the administration was

pumping into it and the FED playing

their little games with everything that

it’s just it’s decoupled from what

reality typically is when it comes to

this stuff but that thing is like a

screaming warning here’s the crazy thing

between the Lei the Som rule all the

other negative indicators that we’ve

been going through in the last year that

all said it’s pending it’s pending it’s

flashing yellow it’s flashing light

red when it hits the fan people are

gonna go I told you wait a minute you

said oh look we follow a lot of the same

people they said late

2023 yep most like 80 % chance 2024 yep

yep still didn’t happen inverted yield

curve I told you yeah in then it re

reverted back to the it’s

normal still nothing’s happened once

again it’s just it you you just ride it

as long as you can and and if it starts

to show signs that’s where you Shore up

a little bit but I I just don’t see it

changing anytime soon and I think with

the new Administration coming in there’s

just a lot of progam growth policies and

that may just keep people employed a

little longer and stretch their credit

cards a little bit longer at this point

at 28% interest

yeah no doubt yeah

yep all right so we got at least one

more before the end of the year and now

we’re going to do our targets for next

year which will absolutely will be

blindfolded and be throwing darts again

that’s exactly it it reminds me of the

days in when I first got into this

business in the early n mid 90s when

they had the joke of they had a monkey

that would throw darts at a dart board

and he was able to pick stocks better

than the the stock Pickers so hold on

let’s leave it on this one there was a

firm one time that used to put the The

Wall Street Journal at the bottom of a

bird cage and whatever stock the bird

pooped on that was the stock of the week

don’t laugh don’t laugh there’s crazier

things that have been done on Wall

Street but I’m honestly I think back

then and and in some aspects today the

same way except you gota the the monkeys

got to hit about 10 stocks that are

driving everything and that’s it at this

point so I know yeah all right all right

folks thank you for joining us once

again our next show is going to be our

annual show that we do where we give our

predictions and we eat our Humble Pie

for what we expected from last year I

will tell you that Ron and I way

underestimated what the market was going

to do this year and I just don’t know

for next year but we’ll see where we’re

at so join us in there for the next show

and we will throw it out there again for

you make sure you subscribe to the

channel make sure you give us that

little upboat make sure you give us that

uh comment so that we can uh keep up

with you here so thanks a lot and we

will see you guys back here the very

next

time e