TRANSCRIPT

hello sense of things it’s Jeff and Ron

here once again with another episode of

the sense of things Today’s Show we’re

going to focus a little bit on uh some

kind of ant or some predictions in the

market that Ron’s looked up he’s got a

couple of Halloween facts for us because

once again it is Halloween week here in

the world so stay tuned we’ll be right

back in just a second

[Music]

[Applause]

[Music]

hey everybody it’s Jeff and Ron here

once again with the sense of things and

Ron how are you friend good morning

doing well loving the weather I know

you’re a weather nerd it’s all good

looking forward to the holiday season I

love the holiday season everybody’s

smiling we got good weather here in

Arizona so looking forward to it I’m

moving Arizona dude it’s freaking hot in

Texas that’s all I can say what’s an

open

invite yes it is brutal and humid here

in Texas and it’s humid and we haven’t

had any rain for 57 or 58 days straight

just absolutely nuts October’s usually

our our rainiest month and it was not

rainy and the hottest month ever in

history so read into it however you want

I know those of you that think it’s

global warming it’s global warming I

just think it’s Texas and it does what

it does bigger and better in Texas right

I’m liking Arizona weather though 60

degrees so that’s oh in the morning

afternoon afternoons now it’s mid late

70s low 80s little very single digit low

double digit humidity it’s wonderful oh

brilliant yeah that kills me but big

time golf season here yeah nice all

right man you’re you’re gonna run the

showday so tell us what we got all right

so let’s start off with some fun stuff

we did the mug shocks last year this

year this is your your some really good

work uniforms for the cold Halloween so

this level 500 uh cold calling and if

you don’t know how call centers work you

got level one two and three level one

are always the neo fights on the phone

so here’s your rockar cold collar with a

dramatic headset a standing desk and

he’s gonna lie I’ve got he’s gonna lock

in baby he’s ready to go he’s ready to

go one size fits most the lamest cost I

love it you got a big noggin you might

need an extender on it yeah oh no that’s

yeah I can’t buy hat so here we go

that’s our cold caller let’s move

on to our unhinged social media manager

there she is ladies and gentlemen she’s

got the me Library folder ready to go

she’s got a full 5 112 gab phone storage

and of course she’s got her portable

charger for the permanent two 2% battery

that’s what we have folks because

they’re always charging because they’re

always on the phone and their eyes never

look up ladies and gentlemen this is our

unhinged social media manager there she

is one size fits most you and I may be

able to do the phone yeah I want my hair

done like that though I think youd look

cute Crystal would love that on you he

I’m a man Bund guy what can I tell you

there I want to look like a samurai I

want to get out my

Katana you didn’t think I knew what a

katana was did you all right I I didn’t

say you didn’t know what a katana all

right all right and our last one is it’s

Brian from there he is ladies and

gentlemen he’s got a bunch of Suits

they’re all 50 Shades of Black there

they are he’s got a scales of Justice

desk accessory and of course he’s got a

private social media account

very you could be Ryan from legal with

an official stop sign for you to walk

around you choose your shade of black

get it today this could also be a

financial compliance officer too so the

sales prevention department only in

broker scumbag offices yes that’s true

that is true and that looks like the

face at with Brian that would be that

person that is exactly right he’s

sitting there in the Boiler Room looking

out the window at it that at the call

center there he is holding up his green

and red sign and twisting it around and

you could do a combo if you had the the

cold caller and him together it could

work perfectly you could have a broker

Brian from legal is standing in front of

his cubicle yes perfect all you got to

do folks is watch the movie Boiler Room

from 99 or 2000 and the Wolf of Wall

Street and you’ll know exactly what

we’re talking about in case you’re

slightly lost and don’t get the rest I

refused to watch either movie I’ve never

seen either have no interest in seeing

them so it’s a good to Tequila movie

what can I tell you it’ll tell you how

things should not be done that is

exactly right right I hear you all right

let’s get into some serious stuff so

rather ironically this just came out in

the last couple week so David coste

who’s on all of the networks and writes

some articles with Goldman Sachs one of

the most reputable firms on Wall Street

rather ironically you would think that

some of them would be pumping up numbers

no matter who wins the election things

like that but he’s coming out saying

look maybe we run a little too far too

fast and the AI story aside there’s a

good possibility that over the next 10

years I don’t even know how you could

look out 10 months that over the next 10

years that we may have a nominal

annualized growth of 3% a year and I

find this quite shocking even though I

have been a bit pessimistic and a little

bit of a bear on the market the last

couple years years I think the next year

and a half is going to be pretty good no

matter who wins but the next 10 years 3%

a year people AR going to like that

which only tells me correct me if I’m

wrong that means people may find real

returns in the bond market your thoughts

yeah yeah and maybe that 6040 balance

portfolio comes back into the reality

mode it hasn’t been for gez what five

six years now couple years definitely

yeah and and that had been the long term

I remember getting into this industry

that the 6040 mix was the the standard

thing and I haven’t been I haven’t been

anywhere close to 40% in bonds for God

probably 10 years back now just because

yeah but don’t forget too in addition of

the 4060 rule there was the 4%

withdrawal rule that may have worked 30

40 years ago but that’s been debunked

today also yeah yeah absolutely the two

people that really developed that rule

were phds so people feel like they got

alphabet soup after their name but has

to work the whole idea is past results

are not indicative of future return so

give me a break yep I’m with you I’m I

hear you let’s keep going other thing

that he was talking about I just put it

here you guys could look all this up go

to I got this off of LinkedIn you know

basically this is always post all social

media platforms but it’s not necessarily

the stock price or the equity Price

Right EPS earnings per share earnings is

the me mother’s milk of true valuation

of assets are you I don’t care great

your revenu is growing at 3% or excuse

me at 30% but you’re you’re you’re

losing a billion and a half a year

that’s great for startup or a unicorn

kind of company right but for an

established company that’s not going to

work for future stock prices so I think

what he’s looking at here and this makes

no sense he’s looking at the trajectory

of eps going up but returns normalizing

at 3% and if you think about it if we’re

looking at a 2% inflation number that’s

not real good

no I don’t I honestly don’t like his I I

don’t get the CH anyhow so it doesn’t

make any sense to me and you know

whatever most of these guys that try and

do these long-term forecasts I’m like

the problem is nobody’s going to

remember you made this stupid ass

forecast in 10 years from now corre so

you can say whatever the you want to

today but nobody’s going to remember

what how wrong you were and and there’s

always a market for people that are just

absolute morons about the market somehow

nuriel El rabini has kept his job

for as long as Doom yeah yeah Dr Doom

I’m like the Market’s gonna go down yeah

it will eventually you idiot but I if I

had have listened to you I would have

made no money for the last 35 five years

look there’s four guys out there noro

orini is one of them another one is Mark

Faber if you remember him the German guy

who always just says keep buying gold

he’s only been in the last 12 years he’s

only been writing the last year the

other two guys are Peter Schiff and

Michael Pento these two guys are just

Perma bears and maybe they’re right

every three to five years but somehow

they stay in business they make money

and people give them money to invest for

I just think it’s crazy I I don’t even

know she still alive yeah the one I

haven’t heard from in a long time I

don’t even know if she’s still alive or

elain

garzarelli that when we were first I

don’t know that name yeah she was big

back she used to be on the old Lou Riser

show and she was right one time in her

entire life she was she predicted the

1987 market crash and she rode that

puppy for as long as she possibly could

and then just disappeared swam and I

don’t even know if she’s still alive she

may not even be alive anymore but listen

out of the financial crisis in

0809 there were a couple of people that

I don’t think anybody saw the end result

as far as the depth of it but many

people saw that something was going to

happen and they rode that level of

credibility for a while many of them

started their own businesses and they

were on TV every week and they all went

away yeah they all went

away around and maybe in the back door

of or the back office of some big office

now but that’s what happens with a lot

of them funny thing is I I remember yeah

I remember somebody was talking about

that it was like a commentator or

something like this on CNBC and he was

talking about some of these you know

people that oh they were the they called

this they called that and he said here’s

how I explain it he because every time

whether you know any event that happens

you have a 5050 shot of guessing what

Direction it’s going to go so if you

guess it the first time okay you’re in

half the crowd if you get it right again

you’re now a pundit if you get it right

again you’re the guru that the market

goes after so that’s three decisions in

your entire career that you got right

and you’re now the guru about it and

elain garzarelli is still alive I don’t

I haven’t heard a word from her from

ever and I the pictures I see of her

were still with her fuzzy hair

hair cres yeah so before we get to the

last slide here I saw some great I L I

mean I’m an analytical weenie and I love

charts and I love listening to people

review

them what people don’t realize don’t

hold me to this number because I

actually think it’s a little bit higher

on

average here’s in the

market from the during a calendar year

the market is up 70% of the time time

meaning 70% of the years it’s an up

Market sure whether it’s a half or 1% or

it’s up 30% it’s up 70% of the time and

we all saw coming out of covid right

there was three years in a row where we

were up double digits you had to have

expected maybe a down year in 2022 plus

it’s the second year of a presidential

year which is typically a down year so

if you just look at Cycles you got to

expect this stuff right so it’s just a

matter of setting expectations but

overall this is where that Theory comes

into play just stay invested all right

absolutely talking about staying

invested uh research firm 314 and you

could look them up they got some really

good stuff out there I’m not a

subscriber but I peeled some of this

stuff off of social media I know it’s a

little tough to read you could freeze

the screen and read the report or go on

to LinkedIn or X and download it

yourself but the two founders of the

company really bright I’ve seen them on

podcast I’ve seen them on TV really

bright and uh they’re talking about a

7,000 S&P by the end of 2026 I don’t

disagree the only thing that I may take

uage with is they’re talking by the end

of 2026 which is the second year of a

new presidential election year we’ll

have to see one one president wants to

lower interest rates so far he we may

get a huge lift in the economy but we

may burn out too

and the other one maybe isn’t business

friendly we’re not going there but my

whole point is there’s a lot of unknowns

in year two with a president in an a

term presidential term mainly because

the first year is the over

Administration and it takes six months

to a year to basically try and get any

kind of an agenda through

Congress that’s why in 2008 that’s why

it took over a year to get the new tax

thing done in

2018 because it had to get through the

Sausage Factory it’s going to be the

same thing again because the 2018 tax

cuts expire the end of next year so they

have to get that going or the 2018

sunsets and the old numbers revert

back so we’ll have to see what happens

but I thought this was interesting what

are some of your thoughts I agree with

you and I think we’re in for probably a

pretty good Q4 history says that it

doesn’t matter who wins cuz half the

we’re roughly halfly or half split

between Republicans and Democrats with

some Independence in there and at least

half the country is going to think the

world is going to be wonderful next

Tuesday maybe Wednesday who knows when

that when they count everything gon take

longer yeah I don’t know the good part I

think about this time I I was listening

to the news this morning and one of the

kind of normal attorney pundit that was

on there she’s like I’m really excited

that a lot of the um legal challenges

are going on now instead of waiting

until after the election and then it’s

all this we don’t really know what’s

going on and were people voting who

weren’t supposed to vote and all that so

a lot of those legal challenges

hopefully are going on now getting them

out of the way so that okay we get to

election night whoever wins and we don’t

have to go like we have the last several

elections we don’t have to go six months

of legal challenges afterwards and

nothing ever happens out of it I I think

the good part is hopefully we have a we

have a good solid election where there’s

not a lot of questions and we can move

on and half the country is going to be

happy and half won’t be so typically the

Market’s going to go up anyhow at this

point well not only that but it’s just

the certainty all right yeah we’re

better for worse whatever you think we

know who’s going to be there for the

next four years we know the agenda so

let invest in what we think is

appropriate money will flow out I heard

there was like 6.7 million in money

markets and cash equivalence that will

find its way at least some of that will

find its way to the market after the

election no doubt yeah you’ve seen it

with gold and everything else Gold’s

down a little bit today from where it’s

been but it’s been ridiculously running

like crazy for the last three to four

months I will say the next two podcasts

are going to be interesting because

it’ll be post election yep and post

employment report a lot of good stuff

going to the end of the year and

certainly we’re going to have a mid

December Market Outlook for 2025 for

everybody we’ll do a special episode for

that and look at where our predictions

were for this year yeah some for next

year I I think we were both wildly

pessimistic in comparison to hey better

it exceed our expectation than below so

that’s precisely correct yeah I’m right

there with you but folks as always we do

these shows for you so please make sure

that you subscribe to the channel make

sure that you give us an upvote and

please ask questions love to answer and

we will see you guys back here the next

time post election